Period doubling as an indicator for ecosystem sensitivity to climate extremes

Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Transitions between dissipative localized structures in the simplified Gilad-Meron model for dryland plant ecology

Spatially extended patterns and multistability of possible different states are common in many ecosystems, and their combination has an important impact on their dynamical behaviors. One potential combination involves tristability between a patterned state and two different uniform states. Using a simplified version of the Gilad-Meron model for dryland ecosystems, we study the organization, in bifurcation terms, of the localized structures arising in tristable regimes. These states are generally related to the concept of wave front locking and appear in the form of spots and gaps of vegetation. We find that the coexistence of localized spots and gaps, within tristable configurations, yields the appearance of hybrid states. We also study the emergence of spatiotemporal localized states consisting of a portion of a periodic pattern embedded in a uniform Hopf-like oscillatory background in a subcritical Turing-Hopf dynamical regime.

High-integrity human intervention in ecosystems: Tracking self-organization modes

Humans play major roles in shaping and transforming the ecology of Earth. Unlike natural drivers of ecosystem change, which are erratic and unpredictable, human intervention in ecosystems generally involves planning and management, but often results in detrimental outcomes. Using model studies and aerial-image analysis, we argue that the design of a successful human intervention form calls for the identification of the self-organization modes that drive ecosystem change, and for studying their dynamics. We demonstrate this approach with two examples: grazing management in drought-prone ecosystems, and rehabilitation of degraded vegetation by water harvesting. We show that grazing can increase the resilience to droughts, rather than imposing an additional stress, if managed in a spatially non-uniform manner, and that fragmental restoration along contour bunds is more resilient than the common practice of continuous restoration in vegetation stripes. We conclude by discussing the need for additional studies of self-organization modes and their dynamics.

Human intervention in ecosystems is motivated by various functional needs, such as provisioning ecosystem services, but often has unexpected detrimental outcomes. A major question in ecology is how to manage human intervention so as to achieve its goal without impairing ecosystem function. The main idea pursued here is the need to identify the inherent response ways of ecosystems to disturbances, and use them as road maps for conducting interventions. This approach is demonstrated mathematically using two contexts, grazing management and vegetation restoration, and compared to remote sensing data for the latter. Among the surprising insights obtained is the beneficial effect of grazing, in terms of resilience to droughts, that can be achieved by managing it non-uniformly in space.

Linking spatial self-organization to community assembly and biodiversity

Temporal shifts to drier climates impose environmental stresses on plant communities that may result in community reassembly and threatened ecosystem services, but also may trigger self-organization in spatial patterns of biota and resources, which act to relax these stresses. The complex relationships between these counteracting processes - community reassembly and spatial self-organization - have hardly been studied. Using a spatio-temporal model of dryland plant communities and a trait-based approach, we study the response of such communities to increasing water-deficit stress. We first show that spatial patterning acts to reverse shifts from fast-growing species to stress-tolerant species, as well as to reverse functional-diversity loss. We then show that spatial self-organization buffers the impact of further stress on community structure. Finally, we identify multistability ranges of uniform and patterned community states and use them to propose forms of non-uniform ecosystem management that integrate the need for provisioning ecosystem services with the need to preserve community structure.

Belowground feedbacks as drivers of spatial self-organization and community assembly

Vegetation patterning in water-limited and other resource-limited ecosystems highlights spatial self-organization processes as potentially key drivers of community assembly. These processes provide insight into predictable landscape-level relationships between organisms and their abiotic environment in the form of regular and irregular patterns of biota and resources. However, two aspects have largely been overlooked; the roles played by plant - soil-biota feedbacks and allelopathy in spatial self-organization, and their potential contribution, along with plant-resource feedbacks, to community assembly through spatial self-organization. Here, we expand the drivers of spatial self-organization from a focus on plant-resource feedbacks to include plant - soil-biota feedbacks and allelopathy, and integrate concepts of nonlinear physics and community ecology to generate a new hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, below-ground processes can affect community assemblages through two types of spatial self-organization, global and local. The former occurs simultaneously across whole ecosystems, leading to self-organized patterns of biota, allelochemicals and resources, and niche partitioning. The latter occurs locally in ecotones, and determines ecotone structure and motion, invasion dynamics, and species coexistence. Studies of the two forms of spatial self-organization are important for understanding the organization of plant communities in drier climates which are likely to involve spatial patterning or re-patterning. Such studies are also important for developing new practices of ecosystem management, based on local manipulations at ecotones, to slow invasion dynamics or induce transitions from transitive to intransitive networks of interspecific interactions which increase species diversity.

Detecting and distinguishing tipping points using spectral early warning signals

Theory and observation tell us that many complex systems exhibit tipping points—thresholds involving an abrupt and irreversible transition to a contrasting dynamical regime. Such events are commonly referred to as critical transitions. Current research seeks to develop early warning signals (EWS) of critical transitions that could help prevent undesirable events such as ecosystem collapse. However, conventional EWS do not indicate the type of transition, since they are based on the generic phenomena of critical slowing down. For instance, they may fail to distinguish the onset of oscillations (e.g. Hopf bifurcation) from a transition to a distant attractor (e.g. Fold bifurcation). Moreover, conventional EWS are less reliable in systems with density-dependent noise. Other EWS based on the power spectrum (spectral EWS) have been proposed, but they rely upon spectral reddening, which does not occur prior to critical transitions with an oscillatory component. Here, we use Ornstein–Uhlenbeck theory to derive analytic approximations for EWS prior to each type of local bifurcation, thereby creating new spectral EWS that provide greater sensitivity to transition proximity; higher robustness to density-dependent noise and bifurcation type; and clues to the type of approaching transition. We demonstrate the advantage of applying these spectral EWS in concert with conventional EWS using a population model, and show that they provide a characteristic signal prior to two different Hopf bifurcations in data from a predator–prey chemostat experiment. The ability to better infer and differentiate the nature of upcoming transitions in complex systems will help humanity manage critical transitions in the Anthropocene Era.