Predicting changes in bee assemblages following state transitions at North American dryland ecotones

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Diversity and turnover of wild bee and ornamental plant assemblages in commercial plant nurseries

In human-modified landscapes, understanding how habitat characteristics influence the diversity and composition of beneficial organisms is critical to conservation efforts and modeling ecosystem services. Assessing turnover, or the magnitude of change in species composition across sites or through time, is crucial to said efforts, yet is often overlooked. For pollinators such as wild bees, variables influencing temporal turnover, particularly across seasons within a year, remain poorly understood. To investigate how local and landscape characteristics correlate with bee diversity and turnover across seasons, we recorded wild bee and flowering ornamental plant assemblages at 13 plant nurseries in California between spring and autumn over 2 years. Nurseries cultivate a broad diversity of flowering plant species that differ widely across sites and seasons, providing an opportunity to test for correlations between turnover and diversity of plants and bees. As expected, we documented strong seasonal trends in wild bee diversity and composition. We found that local habitat factors, such as increased cultivation of native plants, were positively associated with bee diversity in sweep netting collections, whereas we detected moderate influences of landscape level factors such as proportion of surrounding natural area in passive trap collections. We also detected a moderate positive correlation between the magnitude of turnover in plant species and that of bee species (as number of taxa gained) across consecutive seasons. Our results have implications for the conservation of wild bees in ornamental plant landscapes, and highlight the utility of plant nurseries for investigating hypotheses related to diversity and turnover in plant-pollinator systems.

Competition shapes individual foraging and survival in a desert rodent ensemble

Intraspecific variation, including individual diet variation, can structure populations and communities, but the causes and consequences of individual foraging strategies are often unclear. Interactions between competition and resources are thought to dictate foraging strategies (e.g. specialization vs. generalization), but classical paradigms such as optimal foraging and niche theory offer contrasting predictions for individual consumers. Furthermore, both paradigms assume that individual foraging strategies maximize fitness, yet this prediction is rarely tested. We used repeated stable isotope measurements (δ¹³ C, δ¹⁵ N; N = 3,509) and 6 years of capture-mark-recapture data to quantify the relationship between environmental variation, individual foraging and consumer fitness among four species of desert rodents. We tested the relative effects of intraspecific competition, interspecific competition, resource abundance and resource diversity on the foraging strategies of 349 individual animals, and then quantified apparent survival as function of individual foraging strategies. Consistent with niche theory, individuals contracted their trophic niches and increased foraging specialization in response to both intraspecific and interspecific competition, but this effect was offset by resource availability and individuals generalized when plant biomass was high. Nevertheless, individual specialists obtained no apparent fitness benefit from trophic niche contractions as the most specialized individuals exhibited a 10% reduction in monthly survival compared to the most generalized individuals. Ultimately, this resulted in annual survival probabilities nearly 4× higher for generalists compared to specialists. These results indicate that competition is the proximate driver of individual foraging strategies, and that diet-mediated fitness variation regulates population and community dynamics in stochastic resource environments. Furthermore, our findings show dietary generalism is a fitness maximizing strategy, suggesting that plastic foraging strategies may play a key role in species' ability to cope with environmental change.