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Ho CT, Tan ECH, Lee PC, Chu CJ, Huang YH, Huo TI, Su YH, Hou MC, Wu JC, Su CW. Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. Clin Mol Hepatol 2024; 30:406-420. [PMID: 38600872 PMCID: PMC11261226 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2024.0103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2024] [Revised: 04/10/2024] [Accepted: 04/10/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups. METHODS The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort. RESULTS In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores. CONCLUSION Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun-Ting Ho
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Elise Chia-Hui Tan
- Department of Health Service Administration, College of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Pei-Chang Lee
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Jen Chu
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Hsiang Huang
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Teh-Ia Huo
- Division of Basic Research, Department of Medical Research, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Hui Su
- Department of Accounting, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Chih Hou
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jaw-Ching Wu
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Wei Su
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of General Medicine, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
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Zhong X, Long H, Chen L, Xie Y, Shi Y, Peng J, Zheng R, Su L, Duan Y, Xie X, Lin M. Stiffness on shear wave elastography as a potential microenvironment biomarker for predicting tumor recurrence in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma. Insights Imaging 2023; 14:147. [PMID: 37697029 PMCID: PMC10495298 DOI: 10.1186/s13244-023-01505-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To explore the pathologic basis and prognostic value of tumor and liver stiffness measured pre-operatively by two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who undergo hepatic resection. METHODS A total of 191 HBV-infected patients with solitary resectable HCC were prospectively enrolled. The stiffness of intratumoral tissue, peritumoral tissue, adjacent liver tissue, and distant liver tissue was evaluated by 2D-SWE. The correlations between stiffness and pathological characteristics were analyzed in 114 patients. The predictive value of stiffness for recurrence-free survival (RFS) was evaluated, and Cutoff Finder was used for determining optimal cut-off stiffness values. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to identify independent predictors of RFS. RESULTS Pathologically, intratumoral stiffness was associated with stroma proportion and microvascular invasion (MVI) while peritumoral stiffness was associated with tumor size, capsule, and MVI. Adjacent liver stiffness was correlated with capsule and liver fibrosis stage while distant liver stiffness was correlated with liver fibrosis stage. Peritumoral stiffness, adjacent liver stiffness, and distant liver stiffness were all correlated to RFS (all p < 0.05). Higher peritumoral stiffness (> 49.4 kPa) (HR = 1.822, p = 0.023) and higher adjacent liver stiffness (> 24.1 kPa) (HR = 1.792, p = 0.048) were significant independent predictors of worse RFS, along with tumor size and MVI. The nomogram based on these variables showed a C-index of 0.77 for RFS prediction. CONCLUSIONS Stiffness measured by 2D-SWE could be a tumor microenvironment and tumor invasiveness biomarker. Peritumoral stiffness and adjacent liver stiffness showed important values in predicting tumor recurrence after curative resection in HBV-related HCC. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT Tumor and liver stiffness measured by two-dimensional shear wave elastography serve as imaging biomarkers for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence, reflecting biological behavior and tumor microenvironment. KEY POINTS • Stiffness measured by two-dimensional shear wave elastography is a useful biomarker of tumor microenvironment and invasiveness. • Higher stiffness indicated more aggressive behavior of hepatocellular carcinoma. • The study showed the prognostic value of peritumoral stiffness and adjacent liver stiffness for recurrence-free survival. • The nomogram integrating peritumoral stiffness, adjacent liver stiffness, tumor size, and microvascular invasion showed a C-index of 0.77.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xian Zhong
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Haiyi Long
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Lili Chen
- Department of Pathology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Yuhua Xie
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Yifan Shi
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Jianyun Peng
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Ruiying Zheng
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Liya Su
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Yu Duan
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Xiaoyan Xie
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China
| | - Manxia Lin
- Department of Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, 58 Zhongshan Second Road, Guangzhou, 510080, China.
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Vestito A, Dajti E, Cortellini F, Montagnani M, Bazzoli F, Zagari RM. Can Liver Ultrasound Elastography Predict the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. ULTRASCHALL IN DER MEDIZIN (STUTTGART, GERMANY : 1980) 2023; 44:e139-e147. [PMID: 34758491 DOI: 10.1055/a-1657-8825] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE The role of liver stiffness (LS) on ultrasound elastography in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after treatment with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is still unclear. Our aim was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess whether LS can predict the recurrence of HCC after RFA. MATERIALS AND METHODS Medline via PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases, and abstracts of international conference proceedings were searched up to June 30, 2020. Cohort studies were included if they assessed the association between LS values measured by ultrasound elastography before RFA and HCC recurrence. RESULTS 9 studies including 1373 patients with HCC treated by RFA, 643 of whom developed HCC recurrence, were identified. The mean value of LS before RFA was significantly higher in patients who developed HCC recurrence than in those who did not (weighted mean difference=11.98 kPa, 95%CI: 7.60-16.35, I2=63.8%). There was a significant positive association between LS value and HCC recurrence both at univariate (unadjusted HR=1.03, 95%CI: 1.00-1.07, I2=72.7%) and multivariate analysis (adjusted HR=1.03, 95%CI: 1.02-1.04, I2=0). Patients with LS value ≥13-14 kPa or >1.5 m/s have a higher risk of both HCC recurrence (unadjusted HR=2.18, 95%CI: 1.46-3.25, I2=49.7%; adjusted HR=2.41, 95%CI: 1.53-3.79, I2=0) and overall mortality (adjusted HR=4.38; 95%CI: 2.33-8.25, I2=0) in comparison with those with LS below these cutoffs. CONCLUSION Liver ultrasound elastography appears to be a reliable tool to predict HCC recurrence and overall survival after RFA. This technique may be useful for the management of patients with HCC treated by RFA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda Vestito
- Gastroenterology Unit, IRCCS S. Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Italy
| | - Elton Dajti
- Gastroenterology Unit, IRCCS S. Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Italy
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Fabio Cortellini
- Gastroenterology Unit, IRCCS S. Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Italy
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Marco Montagnani
- Gastroenterology Unit, IRCCS S. Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Italy
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Franco Bazzoli
- Gastroenterology Unit, IRCCS S. Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Italy
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Rocco Maurizio Zagari
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
- Gastroenterology Unit, IRCCS S. Orsola Hospital, Bologna, Italy
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Zhang Y, Chen H, Chen S, Li W. Prognostic value of liver stiffness measurement in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by radiofrequency ablation: a meta-analysis. Int J Hyperthermia 2021; 38:1052-1059. [PMID: 34251953 DOI: 10.1080/02656736.2021.1947529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In patients with stage 0-A (as per Milan criteria) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) image-guided ablation is less invasive and requires shorter hospitalization than resection, but long-term prognosis is poorer. This meta-analysis was conducted to investigate whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) could be used to predict prognosis in HCC patients after tumor ablation. METHODS A literature search was conducted for all studies published till July 2020 in PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and EMBASE. Studies were included if they investigated the association between pretreatment LSM and prognosis in HCC patients treated with ablation. Subgroup analysis, meta-regression, publication bias assessment and sensitivity were conducted. RESULTS Eight studies (with a total of 1276 HCC patients) were included in this meta-analysis. All patients were treated with radiofrequency ablation. Pooled results showed that high pretreatment LSM were associated with poor overall survival (OS) (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.27-8.20, p < .001) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), regardless of whether LSM was considered as a categorical variable (HR = 2.63, 95% CI = 1.63-4.22, p < .001) or as a continuous variable (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 1.01-1.04, p = .003). Among studies treating LSM value as a categorical variable, liver stiffness measured using acoustic radio force impulse (ARFI) or transient elastography (TE) was significantly associated with RFS, but not liver stiffness measured using two-dimensional shear wave elastography (SWE). CONCLUSIONS High baseline LSM value appears to be associated with poor prognosis in HCC patients treated with radiofrequency ablation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongchao Zhang
- Cancer Center, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, PR China
| | - Hualei Chen
- Cancer Center, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, PR China
| | - Shanshan Chen
- Cancer Center, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, PR China
| | - Wei Li
- Cancer Center, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, PR China
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Dajti E, Marasco G, Ravaioli F, Alemanni LV, Rossini B, Colecchia L, Vestito A, Festi D, Colecchia A. The role of liver and spleen elastography in advanced chronic liver disease. Minerva Gastroenterol (Torino) 2021; 67:151-163. [PMID: 34027932 DOI: 10.23736/s2724-5985.20.02793-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Portal hypertension is the main driver of complications in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). In the last decade, many non-invasive tests, such us liver and spleen elastography, have been proposed and validated for the identification of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) and its complications, mainly hepatic decompensation and liver-related morbidity and mortality. Moreover, elastography accurately stratifies for the risk of HCC development, HCC recurrence and decompensation after liver surgery. Recent studies suggest a role of SSM in monitoring response to treatments and interventions in ACLD, such as viral eradication, non-selective beta-blockers and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement. However, one of the most indications to perform elastography in ACLD still remains the screening for esophageal varices. In fact, according to the Baveno VI consensus, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150,000/mm3 can safely identify patients at low risk of varices requiring treatment (VNT) and could therefore avoid invasive upper invasive endoscopy; LSM>20-25 kPa can accurately rule-in CSPH in patients with viral etiology. Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) is a direct surrogate of portal hypertension and has been demonstrated more accurate in predicting portal hypertension severity and VNT. A combined model including Baveno VI Criteria and SSM (≤46 kPa) can significantly increase the number of spared endoscopies (>40-50%), maintaining a low (<5%) of missed VNT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elton Dajti
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Giovanni Marasco
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Federico Ravaioli
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Luigina V Alemanni
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Benedetta Rossini
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Luigi Colecchia
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Amanda Vestito
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Davide Festi
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Antonio Colecchia
- Unit of Gastroenterology, Borgo Trento University Hospital of Verona, Verona, Italy -
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Chang CY, Wei CY, Chen PH, Hou MC, Chao Y, Chau GY, Lee RC, Huang YH, Su YH, Wu JC, Su CW. The role of albumin-bilirubin grade in determining the outcomes of patients with very early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. J Chin Med Assoc 2021; 84:136-143. [PMID: 33433133 DOI: 10.1097/jcma.0000000000000482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and with a single tumor <2 cm in size are classified as having Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 HCC. We aimed to investigate the role of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in predicting outcomes in patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC. METHODS We retrospectively enrolled patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC in Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2007 to 2015. Prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching (PSM) analysis. RESULTS There were 420 patients enrolled, including 207 with ALBI grade 1, and 213 with ALBI grade 2 or 3. After a median follow-up of 60.0 months (interquartile range, 37.2-84.6 months), 179 patients died. The cumulative 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 80.6% in patients with ALBI grade 1 and 53.7% in those with ALBI grade 2 or 3, respectively (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age >65 years, negative hepatitis B surface in serum, creatinine >1.0 mg/dL, platelet count ≤105/mm3, tumor size >1.5 cm, nonsurgical resection (SR) therapy, and higher ALBI grade were independent risk factors related to poor OS. Patients who underwent SR had a better OS and recurrence-free survival than those who received radiofrequency ablation, which was confirmed by a multivariate analysis and PSM analysis. CONCLUSION The ALBI grade can determine OS for patients with BCLC stage 0 HCC. SR can also provide a better outcome than nonsurgical treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chung-Yu Chang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Healthcare and Services Center, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Cheng-Yi Wei
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Ping-Hsien Chen
- Endoscopy Center for Diagnosis and Treatment, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, West Garden Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Ming-Chih Hou
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Yee Chao
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Department of Oncology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Gar-Yang Chau
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Division of General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Rheun-Chuan Lee
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Department of Radiology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Yi-Hsiang Huang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Yu-Hui Su
- Department of Accounting, School of Business, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Jaw-Ching Wu
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Department of Medical Research, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Cancer Progression Research Center, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
| | - Chien-Wei Su
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
- Hospitalist Ward, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC
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