In silico simulation of future hybrid performance to evaluate heterotic pool formation in a self-pollinating crop

Use of simulation to optimize a sweet corn breeding program: implementing genomic selection and doubled haploid technology

Genomic selection and doubled haploids hold significant potential to enhance genetic gains and shorten breeding cycles across various crops. Here, we utilized stochastic simulations to investigate the best strategies for optimize a sweet corn breeding program. We assessed the effects of incorporating varying proportions of old and new parents into the crossing block (3:1, 1:1, 1:3, and 0:1 ratio, representing different degrees of parental substitution), as well as the implementation of genomic selection in two distinct pipelines: one calibrated using the phenotypes of testcross parents (GSTC scenario) and another using F1 individuals (GSF1). Additionally, we examined scenarios with doubled haploids, both with (DH) and without (DHGS) genomic selection. Across 20 years of simulated breeding, we evaluated scenarios considering traits with varying heritabilities, the presence or absence of genotype-by-environment effects, and two program sizes (50 vs 200 crosses per generation). We also assessed parameters such as parental genetic mean, average genetic variance, hybrid mean, and implementation costs for each scenario. Results indicated that within a conventional selection program, a 1:3 parental substitution ratio (replacing 75% of parents each generation with new lines) yielded the highest performance. Furthermore, the GSTC model outperformed the GSF1 model in enhancing genetic gain. The DHGS model emerged as the most effective, reducing cycle time from 5 to 4 years and enhancing hybrid gains despite increased costs. In conclusion, our findings strongly advocate for the integration of genomic selection and doubled haploids into sweet corn breeding programs, offering accelerated genetic gains and efficiency improvements.

Phenomic Selection for Hybrid Rapeseed Breeding

Phenomic selection is a recent approach suggested as a low-cost, high-throughput alternative to genomic selection. Instead of using genetic markers, it employs spectral data to predict complex traits using equivalent statistical models. Phenomic selection has been shown to outperform genomic selection when using spectral data that was obtained within the same generation as the traits that were predicted. However, for hybrid breeding, the key question is whether spectral data from parental genotypes can be used to effectively predict traits in the hybrid generation. Here, we aimed to evaluate the potential of phenomic selection for hybrid rapeseed breeding. We performed predictions for various traits in a structured population of 410 test hybrids, grown in multiple environments, using near-infrared spectroscopy data obtained from harvested seeds of both the hybrids and their parental lines with different linear and nonlinear models. We found that phenomic selection within the hybrid generation outperformed genomic selection for seed yield and plant height, even when spectral data was collected at single locations, while being less affected by population structure. Furthermore, we demonstrate that phenomic prediction across generations is feasible, and selecting hybrids based on spectral data obtained from parental genotypes is competitive with genomic selection. We conclude that phenomic selection is a promising approach for rapeseed breeding that can be easily implemented without any additional costs or efforts as near-infrared spectroscopy is routinely assessed in rapeseed breeding.

Identifying the seeds of heterotic pools for Southern and Eastern Africa from global elite spring wheat germplasm

Hybrid breeding can increase the competitiveness of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in Sub-Saharan Africa by fostering more public-private partnerships and promoting investment by the private sector. The benefit of hybrid wheat cultivars in South Africa has previously been demonstrated but due to the high cost of hybrid seed production, hybrid breeding has not received significant attention in the past decade. Considering the renewed commitment of the private sector to establish wheat as a hybrid crop globally, coupled with significant research investment into enhancement of outcrossing of wheat, hybrid wheat breeding in Southern and Eastern Africa should be revisited. Our study aimed to identify genetically distinct germplasm groups in spring wheat that would be useful in the establishment of heterotic pools targeting this region. Multi-environment yield testing of a large panel of F1 test hybrids, generated using global elite germplasm, was carried out between 2019 and 2020 in Argentina, Africa, Europe, and Australia. We observed significant genotype by environment interactions within our testing network, confirming the distinctiveness of African trial sites. Relatively high additive genetic variance was observed highlighting the contribution of parental genotypes to the grain yield of test hybrids. We explored the genetic architecture of these parents and the genetic factors underlying the value of parents appear to be associated with their genetic subgroup, with positive marker effects distributed throughout the genome. In testcrosses, elite germplasm from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) appear to be complementary to the genetically distinct germplasm bred in South Africa. The feasibility of achieving genetic gain via heterotic pool establishment and divergence, and by extension the viability of hybrid cultivars in Sub-Saharan Africa, is supported by the results of our study.

Utilizing genomic prediction to boost hybrid performance in a sweet corn breeding program

Sweet corn breeding programs, like field corn, focus on the development of elite inbred lines to produce commercial hybrids. For this reason, genomic selection models can help the in silico prediction of hybrid crosses from the elite lines, which is hypothesized to improve the test cross scheme, leading to higher genetic gain in a breeding program. This study aimed to explore the potential of implementing genomic selection in a sweet corn breeding program through hybrid prediction in a within-site across-year and across-site framework. A total of 506 hybrids were evaluated in six environments (California, Florida, and Wisconsin, in the years 2020 and 2021). A total of 20 traits from three different groups were measured (plant-, ear-, and flavor-related traits) across the six environments. Eight statistical models were considered for prediction, as the combination of two genomic prediction models (GBLUP and RKHS) with two different kernels (additive and additive + dominance), and in a single- and multi-trait framework. Also, three different cross-validation schemes were tested (CV1, CV0, and CV00). The different models were then compared based on the correlation between the estimated breeding values/total genetic values and phenotypic measurements. Overall, heritabilities and correlations varied among the traits. The models implemented showed good accuracies for trait prediction. The GBLUP implementation outperformed RKHS in all cross-validation schemes and models. Models with additive plus dominance kernels presented a slight improvement over the models with only additive kernels for some of the models examined. In addition, models for within-site across-year and across-site performed better in the CV0 than the CV00 scheme, on average. Hence, GBLUP should be considered as a standard model for sweet corn hybrid prediction. In addition, we found that the implementation of genomic prediction in a sweet corn breeding program presented reliable results, which can improve the testcross stage by identifying the top candidates that will reach advanced field-testing stages.

Simulation-based establishment of base pools for a hybrid breeding program in winter rapeseed

KEY MESSAGE

Simulation planned pre-breeding can increase the efficiency of starting a hybrid breeding program. Starting a hybrid breeding program commonly comprises a grouping of the initial germplasm in two pools and subsequent selection on general combining ability. Investigations on pre-breeding steps before starting the selection on general combining ability are not available. Our goals were (1) to use computer simulations on the basis of DNA markers and testcross data to plan crosses that separate genetically two initial germplasm pools of rapeseed, (2) to carry out the planned crosses, and (3) to verify experimentally the pool separation as well as the increase in testcross performance. We designed a crossing program consisting of four cycles of recombination. In each cycle, the experimentally generated material was used to plan the subsequent crossing cycle with computer simulations. After finishing the crossing program, the initially overlapping pools were clearly separated in principal coordinate plots. Doubled haploid lines derived from the material of crossing cycles 1 and 2 showed an increase in relative testcross performance for yield of about 5% per cycle. We conclude that simulation-designed pre-breeding crossing schemes, that were carried out before the general combining ability-based selection of a newly started hybrid breeding program, can save time and resources, and in addition conserve more of the initial genetic variation than a direct start of a hybrid breeding program with general combining ability-based selection.

Improving hybrid rice breeding programs via stochastic simulations: number of parents, number of hybrids, tester update, and genomic prediction of hybrid performance

KEY MESSAGE

Schemes that use genomic prediction outperform others, updating testers increases hybrid genetic gain, and larger population sizes tend to have higher genetic gain and less depletion of genetic variance One of the most common methods to improve hybrid performance is reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS). Genomic prediction (GP) can be used to increase genetic gain in RRS by reducing cycle length, but it is also possible to use GP to predict single-cross hybrid performance. The impact of the latter method on genetic gain has yet to be previously reported. Therefore, we compared via stochastic simulations various phenotypic and genomics-assisted RRS breeding schemes which used GP to predict hybrid performance rather than reducing cycle length, which allows minimal changes to traditional breeding schemes. We also compared three breeding sizes scenarios that varied the number of genotypes crossed within heterotic pools, the number of genotypes crossed between heterotic pools, the number of hybrids evaluated, and the number of genomic predicted hybrids. Our results demonstrated that schemes that used genomic prediction of hybrid performance outperformed the others for the average interpopulation hybrid population and the best hybrid performance. Furthermore, updating the testers increased hybrid genetic gain with phenotypic RRS. As expected, the largest breeding size tested had the highest rates of genetic improvement and the lowest decrease in additive genetic variance due to the drift. Therefore, this study demonstrates the usefulness of single-cross prediction, which may be easier to implement than rapid-cycling RRS and cyclical updating of testers. We also reiterate that larger population sizes tend to have higher genetic gain and less depletion of genetic variance.

Clonal diploid and autopolyploid breeding strategies to harness heterosis: insights from stochastic simulation

KEY MESSAGE

Reciprocal recurrent selection sometimes increases genetic gain per unit cost in clonal diploids with heterosis due to dominance, but it typically does not benefit autopolyploids. Breeding can change the dominance as well as additive genetic value of populations, thus utilizing heterosis. A common hybrid breeding strategy is reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS), in which parents of hybrids are typically recycled within pools based on general combining ability. However, the relative performances of RRS and other breeding strategies have not been thoroughly compared. RRS can have relatively increased costs and longer cycle lengths, but these are sometimes outweighed by its ability to harness heterosis due to dominance. Here, we used stochastic simulation to compare genetic gain per unit cost of RRS, terminal crossing, recurrent selection on breeding value, and recurrent selection on cross performance considering different amounts of population heterosis due to dominance, relative cycle lengths, time horizons, estimation methods, selection intensities, and ploidy levels. In diploids with phenotypic selection at high intensity, whether RRS was the optimal breeding strategy depended on the initial population heterosis. However, in diploids with rapid-cycling genomic selection at high intensity, RRS was the optimal breeding strategy after 50 years over almost all amounts of initial population heterosis under the study assumptions. Diploid RRS required more population heterosis to outperform other strategies as its relative cycle length increased and as selection intensity and time horizon decreased. The optimal strategy depended on selection intensity, a proxy for inbreeding rate. Use of diploid fully inbred parents vs. outbred parents with RRS typically did not affect genetic gain. In autopolyploids, RRS typically did not outperform one-pool strategies regardless of the initial population heterosis.

Revisiting Plant Heterosis-From Field Scale to Molecules

Heterosis refers to the increase in biomass, stature, fertility, and other characters that impart superior performance to the F1 progeny over genetically diverged parents. The manifestation of heterosis brought an economic revolution to the agricultural production and seed sector in the last few decades. Initially, the idea was exploited in cross-pollinated plants, but eventually acquired serious attention in self-pollinated crops as well. Regardless of harvesting the benefits of heterosis, a century-long discussion is continued to understand the underlying basis of this phenomenon. The massive increase in knowledge of various fields of science such as genetics, epigenetics, genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics persistently provide new insights to understand the reasons for the expression of hybrid vigor. In this review, we have gathered information ranging from classical genetic studies, field experiments to various high-throughput omics and computational modelling studies in order to understand the underlying basis of heterosis. The modern-day science has worked significantly to pull off our understanding of heterosis yet leaving open questions that requires further research and experimentation. Answering these questions would possibly equip today’s plant breeders with efficient tools and accurate choices to breed crops for a sustainable future.

Impact of Genomic Prediction Model, Selection Intensity, and Breeding Strategy on the Long-Term Genetic Gain and Genetic Erosion in Soybean Breeding

Genomic-assisted breeding has become an important tool in soybean breeding. However, the impact of different genomic selection (GS) approaches on short- and long-term gains is not well understood. Such gains are conditional on the breeding design and may vary with a combination of the prediction model, family size, selection strategies, and selection intensity. To address these open questions, we evaluated various scenarios through a simulated closed soybean breeding program over 200 breeding cycles. Genomic prediction was performed using genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), Bayesian methods, and random forest, benchmarked against selection on phenotypic values, true breeding values (TBV), and random selection. Breeding strategies included selections within family (WF), across family (AF), and within pre-selected families (WPSF), with selection intensities of 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, and 10.0%. Selections were performed at the F4 generation, where individuals were phenotyped and genotyped with a 6K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. Initial genetic parameters for the simulation were estimated from the SoyNAM population. WF selections provided the most significant long-term genetic gains. GBLUP and Bayesian methods outperformed random forest and provided most of the genetic gains within the first 100 generations, being outperformed by phenotypic selection after generation 100. All methods provided similar performances under WPSF selections. A faster decay in genetic variance was observed when individuals were selected AF and WPSF, as 80% of the genetic variance was depleted within 28-58 cycles, whereas WF selections preserved the variance up to cycle 184. Surprisingly, the selection intensity had less impact on long-term gains than did the breeding strategies. The study supports that genetic gains can be optimized in the long term with specific combinations of prediction models, family size, selection strategies, and selection intensity. A combination of strategies may be necessary for balancing the short-, medium-, and long-term genetic gains in breeding programs while preserving the genetic variance.

Heterosis and Hybrid Crop Breeding: A Multidisciplinary Review

Although hybrid crop varieties are among the most popular agricultural innovations, the rationale for hybrid crop breeding is sometimes misunderstood. Hybrid breeding is slower and more resource-intensive than inbred breeding, but it allows systematic improvement of a population by recurrent selection and exploitation of heterosis simultaneously. Inbred parental lines can identically reproduce both themselves and their F1 progeny indefinitely, whereas outbred lines cannot, so uniform outbred lines must be bred indirectly through their inbred parents to harness heterosis. Heterosis is an expected consequence of whole-genome non-additive effects at the population level over evolutionary time. Understanding heterosis from the perspective of molecular genetic mechanisms alone may be elusive, because heterosis is likely an emergent property of populations. Hybrid breeding is a process of recurrent population improvement to maximize hybrid performance. Hybrid breeding is not maximization of heterosis per se, nor testing random combinations of individuals to find an exceptional hybrid, nor using heterosis in place of population improvement. Though there are methods to harness heterosis other than hybrid breeding, such as use of open-pollinated varieties or clonal propagation, they are not currently suitable for all crops or production environments. The use of genomic selection can decrease cycle time and costs in hybrid breeding, particularly by rapidly establishing heterotic pools, reducing testcrossing, and limiting the loss of genetic variance. Open questions in optimal use of genomic selection in hybrid crop breeding programs remain, such as how to choose founders of heterotic pools, the importance of dominance effects in genomic prediction, the necessary frequency of updating the training set with phenotypic information, and how to maintain genetic variance and prevent fixation of deleterious alleles.