Potential sex-dependent effects of weather on apparent survival of a high-elevation specialist

Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions

Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km² of the Alpine region as in-situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%-66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high-elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species.

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of local temperature on abundance of mountain birds and implications for understanding global change impacts

Unravelling the environmental factors driving species distribution and abundance is crucial in ecology and conservation. Both climatic and land cover factors are often used to describe species distribution/abundance, but their interrelations have been scarcely investigated. Climatic factors may indeed affect species both directly and indirectly, e.g., by influencing vegetation structure and composition. We aimed to disentangle the direct and indirect effects (via vegetation) of local temperature on bird abundance across a wide elevational gradient in the European Alps, ranging from montane forests to high-elevation open areas. In 2018, we surveyed birds by using point counts and collected fine-scale land cover and temperature data from 109 sampling points. We used structural equation modelling to estimate direct and indirect effects of local climate on bird abundance. We obtained a sufficient sample for 15 species, characterized by a broad variety of ecological requirements. For all species we found a significant indirect effect of local temperatures via vegetation on bird abundance. Direct effects of temperature were less common and were observed in seven woodland/shrubland species, including only mountain generalists; in these cases, local temperatures showed a positive effect, suggesting that on average our study area is likely colder than the thermal optimum of those species. The generalized occurrence of indirect temperature effects within our species set demonstrates the importance of considering both climate and land cover changes to obtain more reliable predictions of future species distribution/abundance. In fact, many species may be largely tracking suitable habitat rather than thermal niches, especially among homeotherm organisms like birds.

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.

Hatching phenology is lagging behind an advancing snowmelt pattern in a high-alpine bird

To track peaks in resource abundance, temperate-zone animals use predictive environmental cues to rear their offspring when conditions are most favourable. However, climate change threatens the reliability of such cues when an animal and its resource respond differently to a changing environment. This is especially problematic in alpine environments, where climate warming exceeds the Holarctic trend and may thus lead to rapid asynchrony between peaks in resource abundance and periods of increased resource requirements such as reproductive period of high-alpine specialists. We therefore investigated interannual variation and long-term trends in the breeding phenology of a high-alpine specialist, the white-winged snowfinch, Montifringilla nivalis, using a 20-year dataset from Switzerland. We found that two thirds of broods hatched during snowmelt. Hatching dates positively correlated with April and May precipitation, but changes in mean hatching dates did not coincide with earlier snowmelt in recent years. Our results offer a potential explanation for recently observed population declines already recognisable at lower elevations. We discuss non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity as a potential cause for the asynchrony between changes in snowmelt and hatching dates of snowfinches, but the underlying causes are subject to further research.

Spatio-temporal variation in the wintering associations of an alpine bird

Many animals make behavioural changes to cope with winter conditions, being gregariousness a common strategy. Several factors have been invoked to explain why gregariousness may evolve during winter, with individuals coming together and separating as they trade off the different costs and benefits of living in groups. These trade-offs may, however, change over space and time as a response to varying environmental conditions. Despite its importance, little is known about the factors triggering gregarious behaviour during winter and its change in response to variation in weather conditions is poorly documented. Here, we aimed at quantifying large-scale patterns in wintering associations over 23 years of the white-winged snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis nivalis. We found that individuals gather in larger groups at sites with harsh wintering conditions. Individuals at colder sites reunite later and separate earlier in the season than at warmer sites. However, the magnitude and phenology of wintering associations are ruled by changes in weather conditions. When the temperature increased or the levels of precipitation decreased, group size substantially decreased, and individuals stayed united in groups for a shorter time. These results shed light on factors driving gregariousness and points to shifting winter climate as an important factor influencing this behaviour.

Mountain surface processes and regulation

Mountains cover about a quarter of the world’s land surface, and directly support a significant proportion of the world’s population living within mountainous regions. Mountains provide water, timber and non-timber forest products, mineral resources, and many other food, fiber, and fuel products. Mountains also provide diverse ecosystems, in terms of both species and genetics, due to the topographic complexity in mountains increasing isolation and promoting speciation. Managing mountain regions for the sustainable delivery of critical goods and services requires an increasingly detailed understanding of mountain surface processes and regulation. The aim of this Guest Edited Collection is to provide a platform for interdisciplinary studies of mountain surface processes, and their responses to climate change and human activities.