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Cherkas Y, Ide J, van Stekelenborg J. Leveraging Machine Learning to Facilitate Individual Case Causality Assessment of Adverse Drug Reactions. Drug Saf 2022; 45:571-582. [PMID: 35579819 DOI: 10.1007/s40264-022-01163-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Causality assessment of individual case safety reports (ICSRs) is an important step in pharmacovigilance case-level review and aims to establish a position on whether a patient's exposure to a drug is causally related to the patient experiencing an untoward adverse event. There are many different approaches for case causality adjudication, including the use of expert opinions and algorithmic frameworks; however, a great deal of variability exists between assessment methods, products, therapeutic classes, individual physicians, change of process and conventions over time, and other factors. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to develop a machine learning-based model that can predict the likelihood of a causal association of an observed drug-reaction combination in an ICSR. METHODS In this study, we used a set of annotated solicited ICSRs (50K cases) from a company post-marketing database. These data were enriched with novel supplementary features from external and internal data sources that aim to capture facets such as temporal plausibility, scientific validity, and confoundedness that have been shown to contribute to causality adjudication. Using these features, we constructed a Bayesian network (BN) model to predict drug-event pair causality assessment. BN topology was driven by an internally developed ICSR causality decision support tool. Performance of the model was evaluated through examination of sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) on an independent set of data from a temporally adjacent interval (20K cases). No external validation was performed because of a lack of publicly available ICSRs with causality assessments for drug-event pairs. RESULTS The model demonstrated high performance in predicting the causality assessment of drug-event pairs compared with clinical judgment using global introspection (AUC 0.924; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.922-0.927). The sensitivity of the model was 0.900 (95% CI 0.896-0.904), and the PPV of the model was 0.778 (95% CI 0.773-0.783). CONCLUSION These results show that robust probabilistic modeling of ICSR causality is feasible, and the approach used in the development of the model can serve as a framework for such causality assessments, leading to improvements in safety decision making.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Joshua Ide
- Johnson & Johnson Consumer, Inc, Skillman, NJ, USA
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Syrowatka A, Song W, Amato MG, Foer D, Edrees H, Co Z, Kuznetsova M, Dulgarian S, Seger DL, Simona A, Bain PA, Purcell Jackson G, Rhee K, Bates DW. Key use cases for artificial intelligence to reduce the frequency of adverse drug events: a scoping review. Lancet Digit Health 2021; 4:e137-e148. [PMID: 34836823 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(21)00229-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2021] [Revised: 08/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Adverse drug events (ADEs) represent one of the most prevalent types of health-care-related harm, and there is substantial room for improvement in the way that they are currently predicted and detected. We conducted a scoping review to identify key use cases in which artificial intelligence (AI) could be leveraged to reduce the frequency of ADEs. We focused on modern machine learning techniques and natural language processing. 78 articles were included in the scoping review. Studies were heterogeneous and applied various AI techniques covering a wide range of medications and ADEs. We identified several key use cases in which AI could contribute to reducing the frequency and consequences of ADEs, through prediction to prevent ADEs and early detection to mitigate the effects. Most studies (73 [94%] of 78) assessed technical algorithm performance, and few studies evaluated the use of AI in clinical settings. Most articles (58 [74%] of 78) were published within the past 5 years, highlighting an emerging area of study. Availability of new types of data, such as genetic information, and access to unstructured clinical notes might further advance the field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ania Syrowatka
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
| | - Wenyu Song
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Mary G Amato
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Dinah Foer
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Heba Edrees
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Massachusetts College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Zoe Co
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Sevan Dulgarian
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Diane L Seger
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Aurélien Simona
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul A Bain
- Countway Library of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Gretchen Purcell Jackson
- IBM Watson Health, Cambridge, MA, USA; Department of Pediatric Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA
| | - Kyu Rhee
- IBM Watson Health, Cambridge, MA, USA; CVS Health, Wellesley Hills, MA, USA
| | - David W Bates
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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