State-space models reveal a continuing elephant poaching problem in most of Africa

Do elephants really never forget? What we know about elephant memory and a call for further investigation

Despite popular culture's promotion of the elephant's ability to "never forget," there is remarkably limited empirical research on the memory capacities of any living elephant species (Asian, Elephas maximus; African savanna, Loxodonta africana; African forest, Loxodonta cyclotis). A growing body of literature on elephant cognition and behavioral ecology has provided insight into the elephant's ability to behave flexibly in changing physical and social environments, but little direct evidence of how memory might relate to this flexibility exists. In this paper, we review and discuss the potential relationships between what we know about elephant cognition and behavior and the elephants' memory for the world around them as they navigate their physical, social, and spatial environments. We also discuss future directions for investigating elephant memory and implications for such research on elephant conservation and human-elephant conflict mitigation.

Systematic review of the impact of restrictive wildlife trade measures on conservation of iconic species in southern Africa

Trade restrictions are often advocated and implemented as measures to protect wild species threatened by overexploitation. However, in some instances, their efficacy has been questioned, notably by governments in the southern African (SADC) region, which tend to favor a sustainable use approach to wildlife management. We conducted a systematic review of published literature guided by the PRISMA process to examine the effectiveness of trade restrictions and directly related control measures in addressing threats to species conservation in the SADC region, with a focus on elephants (Loxodonta sp.), rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum, Diceros bicornis), lions (Panthera leo), and pangolins (Manis sp.). We focused in particular on the direct conservation impact of trade restrictions at species or population level, indirect conservation impact at human behavior or attitude level, and socioeconomic impact on rural livelihoods and well-being and on national economies. Research on these topics was uneven and focused strongly on the effects of trade restrictions and law enforcement on crime-related behavior. Research gaps include socioeconomic impacts of trade restrictions, including effects of international restrictions on local livelihoods and consequent secondary conservation impacts, and evaluations of attempts to disrupt criminal networks. Based on the reviewed impact evidence, the effectiveness of international trade restrictions depends on a range of fully aligned measures in countries of origin, transit, and consumption. For example, our results suggest positive ecological short-term but negative or unknown long-term socioeconomic impacts of domestic restrictions. Based on these findings, key policy requirements include more nuanced approaches to incorporate a range of appropriate measures in range, transit, and consumer countries, that focus on capacity development for early detection and apprehension of incursions inside protected areas; measures for constructive engagement with relevant local communities outside protected areas; and future research to improve understanding of the socioeconomic contribution of wildlife.

Land use drives differential resource selection by African elephants in the Greater Mara Ecosystem, Kenya

Understanding drivers of space use by African elephants is critical to their conservation and management, particularly given their large home-ranges, extensive resource requirements, ecological role as ecosystem engineers, involvement in human-elephant conflict and as a target species for ivory poaching. In this study we investigated resource selection by elephants inhabiting the Greater Mara Ecosystem in Southwestern Kenya in relation to three distinct but spatially contiguous management zones: (i) the government protected Maasai Mara National Reserve (ii) community-owned wildlife conservancies, and (iii) elephant range outside any formal wildlife protected area. We combined GPS tracking data from 49 elephants with spatial covariate information to compare elephant selection across these management zones using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, providing insight regarding how human activities structure elephant spatial behavior. We also contrasted differences in selection by zone across several data strata: sex, season and time-of-day. Our results showed that the strongest selection by elephants was for closed-canopy forest and the strongest avoidance was for open-cover, but that selection behavior varied significantly by management zone and selection for cover was accentuated in human-dominated areas. When contrasting selection parameters according to strata, variability in selection parameter values reduced along a protection gradient whereby elephants tended to behave more similarly (limited plasticity) in the human dominated, unprotected zone and more variably (greater plasticity) in the protected reserve. However, avoidance of slope was consistent across all zones. Differences in selection behavior was greatest between sexes, followed by time-of-day, then management zone and finally season (where seasonal selection showed the least differentiation of the contrasts assessed). By contrasting selection coefficients across strata, our analysis quantifies behavioural switching related to human presence and impact displayed by a cognitively advanced megaherbivore. Our study broadens the knowledge base about the movement ecology of African elephants and builds our capacity for both management and conservation.

Protecting and connecting landscapes stabilizes populations of the Endangered savannah elephant

The influence of protected areas on the growth of African savannah elephant populations is inadequately known. Across southern Africa, elephant numbers grew at 0.16% annually for the past quarter century. Locally, much depends on metapopulation dynamics-the size and connections of individual populations. Population numbers in large, connected, and strictly protected areas typically increased, were less variable from year to year, and suffered less from poaching. Conversely, populations in buffer areas that are less protected but still connected have more variation in growth from year to year. Buffer areas also differed more in their growth rates, likely due to more threats and dispersal opportunities in the face of such dangers. Isolated populations showed consistently high growth due to a lack of emigration. This suggests that "fortress" conservation generally maintains high growth, while anthropogenic-driven source-sink dynamics within connected conservation clusters drive stability in core areas and variability in buffers.

Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites

Ivory poaching continues to threaten African elephants. We (1) used criminology theory and literature evidence to generate hypotheses about factors that may drive, facilitate or motivate poaching, (2) identified datasets representing these factors, and (3) tested those factors with strong hypotheses and sufficient data quality for empirical associations with poaching. We advance on previous analyses of correlates of elephant poaching by using additional poaching data and leveraging new datasets for previously untested explanatory variables. Using data on 10 286 illegally killed elephants detected at 64 sites in 30 African countries (2002-2020), we found strong evidence to support the hypotheses that the illegal killing of elephants is associated with poor national governance, low law enforcement capacity, low household wealth and health, and global elephant ivory prices. Forest elephant populations suffered higher rates of illegal killing than savannah elephants. We found only weak evidence that armed conflicts may increase the illegal killing of elephants, and no evidence for effects of site accessibility, vegetation density, elephant population density, precipitation or site area. Results suggest that addressing wider systemic challenges of human development, corruption and consumer demand would help reduce poaching, corroborating broader work highlighting these more ultimate drivers of the global illegal wildlife trade.

More than half of data deficient species predicted to be threatened by extinction

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is essential for practical and theoretical efforts to protect biodiversity. However, species classified as “Data Deficient” (DD) regularly mislead practitioners due to their uncertain extinction risk. Here we present machine learning-derived probabilities of being threatened by extinction for 7699 DD species, comprising 17% of the entire IUCN spatial datasets. Our predictions suggest that DD species as a group may in fact be more threatened than data-sufficient species. We found that 85% of DD amphibians are likely to be threatened by extinction, as well as more than half of DD species in many other taxonomic groups, such as mammals and reptiles. Consequently, our predictions indicate that, amongst others, the conservation relevance of biodiversity hotspots in South America may be boosted by up to 20% if DD species were acknowledged. The predicted probabilities for DD species are highly variable across taxa and regions, implying current Red List-derived indices and priorities may be biased.

Data Deficient species are more likely to be at extinction risk than previously thought across multiple taxonomic groups.

Elephant genotypes reveal the size and connectivity of transnational ivory traffickers

Transnational ivory traffickers continue to smuggle large shipments of elephant ivory out of Africa, yet prosecutions and convictions remain few. We identify trafficking networks on the basis of genetic matching of tusks from the same individual or close relatives in separate shipments. Analyses are drawn from 4,320 savannah (Loxodonta africana) and forest (L. cyclotis) elephant tusks, sampled from 49 large ivory seizures totalling 111 t, shipped out of Africa between 2002 and 2019. Network analyses reveal a repeating pattern wherein tusks from the same individual or close relatives are found in separate seizures that were containerized in, and transited through, common African ports. Results suggest that individual traffickers are exporting dozens of shipments, with considerable connectivity between traffickers operating in different ports. These tools provide a framework to combine evidence from multiple investigations, strengthen prosecutions and support indictment and prosecution of transnational ivory traffickers for the totality of their crimes.

Simulated poaching affects global connectivity and efficiency in social networks of African savanna elephants—An exemplar of how human disturbance impacts group-living species

Selective harvest, such as poaching, impacts group-living animals directly through mortality of individuals with desirable traits, and indirectly by altering the structure of their social networks. Understanding the relationship between disturbance-induced, structural network changes and group performance in wild animals remains an outstanding problem. To address this problem, we evaluated the immediate effect of disturbance on group sociality in African savanna elephants—an example, group-living species threatened by poaching. Drawing on static association data from ten free-ranging groups, we constructed one empirically based, population-wide network and 100 virtual networks; performed a series of experiments ‘poaching’ the oldest, socially central or random individuals; and quantified the immediate change in the theoretical indices of network connectivity and efficiency of social diffusion. Although the social networks never broke down, targeted elimination of the socially central conspecifics, regardless of age, decreased network connectivity and efficiency. These findings hint at the need to further study resilience by modeling network reorganization and interaction-mediated socioecological learning, empirical data permitting. The main contribution of our work is in quantifying connectivity together with global efficiency in multiple social networks that feature the sociodemographic diversity likely found in wild elephant populations. The basic design of our simulation makes it adaptable for hypothesis testing about the consequences of anthropogenic disturbance or lethal management on social interactions in a variety of group-living species with limited, real-world data.

Think Before You Act: Improving the Conservation Outcomes of CITES Listing Decisions

The CITES treaty is the major international instrument designed to safeguard wild plants and animals from overexploitation by international trade. CITES is now approaching 50 years old, and we contend that it is showing its age. In stark contrast to most environmental policy arenas, CITES does not require, encourage, or even allow for, consideration of the impacts of its key decisions—those around listing species in the CITES Appendices. Decisions to list species in CITES are based on a simplistic set of biological and trade criteria that do not relate to the impact of the decision, and have little systematic evidentiary support. We explain the conservation failures that flow from this weakness and propose three key changes to the CITES listing process: (1) development of a formal mechanism for consideration by Parties of the likely consequences of species listing decisions; (2) broadening of the range of criteria used to make listing decisions; and (3) amplification of the input of local communities living alongside wildlife in the listing process. Embracing these changes will help to ensure CITES decisions more effectively respond to the needs of wildlife in today’s highly complex and dynamic conservation context.