Five-year change in body mass index category of childhood and the establishment of an obesity prediction model

Prediction models for children/adolescents with obesity/overweight: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The incidence of obesity and overweight in children and adolescents is increasing worldwide and becomes a global health concern. This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of available prediction models in early identification of obesity and overweight in general children or adolescents and identify predictive factors for the models, thus provide a reference for subsequent development of risk prediction tools for obesity and overweight in children or adolescents. Related publications were obtained from several databases such as PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from their inception to September 18th, 2022. The novel Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was employed to assess the bias risk of the included studies. R4.2.0 and Stata15.1 softwares were used to conduct meta-analysis. This study involved 45 cross-sectional and/or prospective studies with 126 models. Meta-analyses showed that the overall pooled index of concordance (c-index) of prediction models for children/adolescents with obesity and overweight in the training set was 0.769 (95% CI 0.754-0.785) and 0.835(95% CI 0.792-0.879), respectively. Additionally, a large number of predictors were found to be related to children's lifestyles, such as sleep duration, sleep quality, and eating speed. In conclusions, prediction models can be employed to predict obesity/overweight in children and adolescents. Most predictors are controllable factors and are associated with lifestyle. Therefore, the prediction model serves as an excellent tool to formulate effective strategies for combating obesity/overweight in pediatric patients.

Effects of Prevotella copri on insulin, gut microbiota and bile acids

Obesity is becoming a major global health problem in children that can cause diseases such as type 2 diabetes and metabolic disorders, which are closely related to the gut microbiota. However, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, a significant positive correlation was observed between Prevotella copri (P. copri) and obesity in children (p = 0.003). Next, the effect of P. copri on obesity was explored by using fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) experiment. Transplantation of P. copri. increased serum levels of fasting blood glucose (p < 0.01), insulin (p < 0.01) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) (p < 0.05) in high-fat diet (HFD)-induced obese mice, but not in normal mice. Characterization of the gut microbiota indicated that P. copri reduced the relative abundance of the Akkermansia genus in mice (p < 0.01). Further analysis on bile acids (BAs) revealed that P. copri increased the primary BAs and ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in HFD-induced mice (p < 0.05). This study demonstrated for the first time that P. copri has a significant positive correlation with obesity in children, and can increase fasting blood glucose and insulin levels in HFD-fed obese mice, which are related to the abundance of Akkermansia genus and bile acids.