Earthquake statistics changed by typhoon-driven erosion

Landslide hazard cascades can trigger earthquakes

While earthquakes are well-known to trigger surface hazards and initiate hazard cascades, whether surface hazards can instead trigger earthquakes remains underexplored. In 2018, two landslides on the Tibetan plateau created landslide-dammed lakes which subsequently breached and caused catastrophic outburst floods. Here we build an earthquake catalog using machine-learning and cross-correlation-based methods which shows there was a statistically significant increase in earthquake activity (local magnitude ≤ 2.6) as the landslide-dammed lake approached peak water level which returned to the background level after dam breach. We further find that ~90% of the seismicity occurred where Coulomb stress increased due to the combined effect of direct loading and pore pressure diffusion. The close spatial and temporal correlation between the calculated Coulomb stress increase and earthquake activity suggests that the earthquakes were triggered by these landslide hazard cascades. Finally, our Coulomb stress modeling considering the properties of landslide-dammed lakes and reservoir-induced earthquakes globally suggests that earthquake triggering by landslide-dammed lakes and similar structures may be a ubiquitous phenomenon. Therefore, we propose that earthquake-surface hazard interaction can include bidirectional triggering which should be properly accounted for during geological hazard assessment and management in mountainous regions.

Badland landscape response to individual geomorphic events

Landscapes form by the erosion and deposition of sediment, driven by tectonic and climatic forcing. The principal geomorphic processes of badland – landsliding, debris flow and runoff erosion – are similar to those in full scale mountain topography, but operate faster. Here, we show that in the badlands of SW Taiwan, individual rainfall events cause quantifiable landscape change, distinct for the type of rainfall. Typhoon rain reduced hillslope gradients, while lower-intensity precipitation either steepened or flattened the landscape, depending on its initial topography. The steep topography observed in our first survey is inconsistent with the effects of any of the rainfall events. We suggest that it is due to the 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquake. The observed pattern in the badlands was mirrored in the response of the Taiwan mountain topography to typhoon Morakot in 2009, confirming that badlands offer special opportunities to quantify natural landscape dynamics on observational time scales.

The relative role of individual forcing events in long-term landscape evolution is challenging to measure in the field. Badlands offer special opportunities to quantify common, natural landscape dynamics on observational time scales.

Synchronized and asynchronous modulation of seismicity by hydrological loading: A case study in Taiwan

Delineation of physical factors that contribute to earthquake triggering is a challenging issue in seismology. We analyze hydrological modulation of seismicity in Taiwan using groundwater level data and GNSS time series. In western Taiwan, the seismicity rate reaches peak levels in February to April and drops to its lowest values in July to September, exhibiting a direct correlation with annual water unloading. The elastic hydrological load cycle may be the primary driving mechanism for the observed synchronized modulation of earthquakes, as also evidenced by deep earthquakes in eastern Taiwan. However, shallow earthquakes in eastern Taiwan (<18 km) are anticorrelated with water unloading, which is not well explained by either hydrological loading, fluid transport, or pore pressure changes and suggests other time-dependent processes. The moderate correlation between stacked monthly trends of large historic earthquakes and present-day seismicity implies a modestly higher seismic hazard during the time of low annual hydrological loading.