Improvements and inter-laboratory implementation and optimization of blood-based single-locus age prediction models using DNA methylation of the ELOVL2 promoter

Predicting age from blood by droplet digital PCR using a set of three DNA methylation markers

Evaluation of DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns is a promising tool for age estimation. The duplex droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) method has been recently investigated for DNAm evaluation, revealing to be a potential methodology for DNAm evaluation and molecular age estimation. In this study, we evaluated DNAm levels of CpGs located at the three age-associated genes ELOVL2, FHL2 and PDE4C using ddPCR to develop an age prediction model. Blood-derived DNA samples from 58 healthy individuals (42 women and 16 men; aged 1-93 years old) were submitted to bisulfite conversion followed by ddPCR using dual-labeled probes targeting methylated and unmethylated DNA sequences. Simple linear regression statistics revealed a strong correlation between DNAm levels and chronological age for FHL2 (R = 0.948; P = 1.472 × 10-29) and PDE4C (R = 0.819; P = 3.917 × 10-15), addressing only one CpG for each gene. For the ELOVL2 gene, evaluating five CpG sites in simultaneous, revealed a strong age correlation (R = 0.887; P = 2.099 × 10-20) in a simple linear regression statistics and very strong age correlation (R = 0.926; P = 2.202 × 10-25) when using quadratic regression statistics. The multivariable regression analysis, using methylation information captured on ELOVL2 (squared), FHL2 and PDE4C genes, revealed a very strong age correlation (R = 0.970; P = 5.356 ×10-33), explaining 93.7 % of age variance, displaying a mean absolute deviation (MAD) between chronological and predicted age of 4.657 years (RMSE = 6.044). We postulate that the ddPCR method should be further investigated for DNAm-based age prediction, because it is a relatively simple and an accurate method that can be routinely used in forensic laboratories for testing a few numbers of markers.

Development and comparison of forensic interval age prediction models by statistical and machine learning methods based on the methylation rates of ELOVL2 in blood DNA

Age estimation can be useful information for narrowing down candidates of unidentified donors in criminal investigations. Various age estimation models based on DNA methylation biomarkers have been developed for forensic usage in the past decade. However, many of these models using ordinary least squares regression cannot generate an appropriate estimation due to the deterioration in prediction accuracy caused by an increased prediction error in older age groups. In the present study, to address this problem, we developed age estimation models that set an appropriate prediction interval for all age groups by two approaches: a statistical method using quantile regression (QR) and a machine learning method using an artificial neural network (ANN). Methylation datasets (n = 1280, age 0-91 years) of the promoter for the gene encoding ELOVL fatty acid elongase 2 were used to develop the QR and ANN models. By validation using several test datasets, both models were shown to enlarge prediction intervals in accordance with aging and have a high level of correct prediction (>90 %) for older age groups. The QR and ANN models also generated a point age prediction with high accuracy. The ANN model enabled a prediction with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.3 years and root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.3 years for the test dataset (n = 549), which were comparable to those of the QR model (MAE = 5.6 years, RMSE = 7.8 years). Their applicability to casework was also confirmed using bloodstain samples stored for various periods of time (1-14 years), indicating the stability of the models for aged bloodstain samples. From these results, it was considered that the proposed models can provide more useful and effective age estimation in forensic settings.

Longitudinal changes and variation in human DNA methylation analysed with the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip assay and their implications on forensic age prediction

DNA methylation, a pivotal epigenetic modification, plays a crucial role in regulating gene expression and is known to undergo dynamic changes with age. The present study investigated epigenome-wide methylation profiles in 64 individuals over two time points, 15 years apart, using the Illumina EPIC850k arrays. A mixed-effects model identified 2821 age-associated differentially methylated CpG positions (aDMPs) with a median rate of change of 0.18% per year, consistent with a 10-15% change during a human lifespan. Significant variation in the baseline DNA methylation levels between individuals of similar ages as well as inconsistent direction of change with time across individuals were observed for all the aDMPs. Twenty-three of the 2821 aDMPs were previously incorporated into forensic age prediction models. These markers displayed larger changes in DNA methylation with age compared to all the aDMPs and less variation among individuals. Nevertheless, the forensic aDMPs also showed inter-individual variations in the direction of DNA methylation changes. Only cg16867657 in ELOVL2 exhibited a uniform direction of the age-related change among the investigated individuals, which supports the current knowledge that CpG sites in ELOVL2 are the best markers for age prediction.

Prediction of chronological age and its applications in forensic casework: methods, current practices, and future perspectives

Estimating an individual's age can be relevant in several areas primarily related to the clinical and forensic fields. In the latter, estimation of an individual's chronological age from biological material left by the perpetrator at a crime scene may provide helpful information for police investigation. Estimation of age is also beneficial in immigration cases, where age can affect the person's protection status under the law, or in disaster victim identification to narrow the list of potential missing persons. In the last decade, research has focused on establishing new approaches for age prediction in the forensic field. From the first forensic age estimations based on morphological inspections of macroscopic changes in bone and teeth, the focus has shifted to molecular methods for age estimation. These methods allow the use of samples from human biological material that does not contain morphological age features and can, in theory, be investigated in traces containing only small amounts of biological material. Molecular methods involving DNA analyses are the primary choice and estimation of DNA methylation levels at specific sites in the genome is the most promising tool. This review aims to provide an overview of the status of forensic age prediction using molecular methods, with particular focus in DNA methylation. The frequent challenges that impact forensic age prediction model development will be addressed, together with the importance of validation efforts within the forensic community.

An ELOVL2-Based Epigenetic Clock for Forensic Age Prediction: A Systematic Review

The prediction of chronological age from methylation-based biomarkers represents one of the most promising applications in the field of forensic sciences. Age-prediction models developed so far are not easily applicable for forensic caseworkers. Among the several attempts to pursue this objective, the formulation of single-locus models might represent a good strategy. The present work aimed to develop an accurate single-locus model for age prediction exploiting ELOVL2, a gene for which epigenetic alterations are most highly correlated with age. We carried out a systematic review of different published pyrosequencing datasets in which methylation of the ELOVL2 promoter was analysed to formulate age prediction models. Nine of these, with available datasets involving 2298 participants, were selected. We found that irrespective of which model was adopted, a very strong relationship between ELOVL2 methylation levels and age exists. In particular, the model giving the best age-prediction accuracy was the gradient boosting regressor with a prediction error of about 5.5 years. The findings reported here strongly support the use of ELOVL2 for the formulation of a single-locus epigenetic model, but the inclusion of additional, non-redundant markers is a fundamental requirement to apply a molecular model to forensic applications with more robust results.

A Blood-Based Molecular Clock for Biological Age Estimation

In the last decade, extensive efforts have been made to identify biomarkers of biological age. DNA methylation levels of ELOVL fatty acid elongase 2 (ELOVL2) and the signal joint T-cell receptor rearrangement excision circles (sjTRECs) represent the most promising candidates. Although these two non-redundant biomarkers echo important biological aspects of the ageing process in humans, a well-validated molecular clock exploiting these powerful candidates has not yet been formulated. The present study aimed to develop a more accurate molecular clock in a sample of 194 Italian individuals by re-analyzing the previously obtained EVOLV2 methylation data together with the amount of sjTRECs in the same blood samples. The proposed model showed a high prediction accuracy both in younger individuals with an error of about 2.5 years and in older subjects where a relatively low error was observed if compared with those reported in previously published studies. In conclusion, an easy, cost-effective and reliable model to measure the individual rate and the quality of aging in human population has been proposed. Further studies are required to validate the model and to extend its use in an applicative context.

Centenarians consistently present a younger epigenetic age than their chronological age with four epigenetic clocks based on a small number of CpG sites

Aging is a progressive time-dependent biological process affecting differentially individuals, who can sometimes present exceptional longevity. Epigenetic alterations are one of the hallmarks of aging, which comprise the epigenetic drift and clock at DNA methylation level. In the present study, we estimated the DNA methylation-based age (DNAmage) using four epigenetic clocks based on a small number of CpGs in French centenarians and semi-supercentenarians (CSSC, n=214) as well as nonagenarians' and centenarians' offspring (NCO, n=143) compared to individuals from the French general population (CG, n=149). DNA methylation analysis of the nine CpGs included in the epigenetic clocks showed high correlation with chronological age (-0.66>R>0.54) and also the presence of an epigenetic drift for four CpGs that was only visible in CSSC. DNAmage analysis showed that CSSC and to a lesser extend NCO present a younger DNAmage than their chronological age (15-28.5 years for CSSC, 4.4-11.5 years for NCO and 4.2-8.2 years for CG), which were strongly significant in CSSC compared to CG (p-values<2.2e-16). These differences suggest that epigenetic aging and potentially biological aging are slowed in exceptionally long-lived individuals and that epigenetic clocks based on a small number of CpGs are sufficient to reveal alterations of the global epigenetic clock.

A cautionary note on altered pace of aging in the COVID-19 era

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highly age-dependent due to hi-jacking the molecular control of the immune cells by the severe acute respiratory syndrome-corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) leading to aberrant DNA methylation (DNAm) pattern of blood in comparison to normal individuals. These epigenetic modifications have been linked to perturbations to the epigenetic clock, development of long COVID-19 syndrome, and all-cause mortality risk. I reviewed the effects of COVID-19 on different molecular age markers such as the DNAm, telomere length (TL), and signal joint T-cell receptor excision circle (sjTREC). Integrating the accumulated clinical research data, COVID-19 and novel medical management may alter the pace of aging in adult individuals (<60 years). As such, COVID-19 might be a confounder in epigenetic age estimation similar to life style diversities, pathogens and pathologies which may influence the interpretation of DNAm data. Similarly, the SARS-CoV-2 affects T-lymphocyte function with possible influence on sjTREC levels. In contrast, TL measurements performed years before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic proved that short TL predisposes to severe COVID- 19 independently from chronological age. However, the persistence of COVID-19 epigenetic scars and the durability of the immune response after vaccination and their effect on the ongoing pace of aging are still unknown. In the light of these data, the heterogeneous nature of the samples in these studies mandates a systematic evaluation of the currrent methods. SARS-CoV-2 may modify the reliability of the age estimation models in real casework because blood is the most common biological sample encountered in forensic contexts.

A high-throughput real-time PCR tissue-of-origin test to distinguish blood from lymphoblastoid cell line DNA for (epi)genomic studies

Lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) derive from blood infected in vitro by Epstein–Barr virus and were used in several genetic, transcriptomic and epigenomic studies. Although few changes were shown between LCL and blood genotypes (SNPs) validating their use in genetics, more were highlighted for other genomic features and/or in their transcriptome and epigenome. This could render them less appropriate for these studies, notably when blood DNA could still be available. Here we developed a simple, high-throughput and cost-effective real-time PCR approach allowing to distinguish blood from LCL DNA samples based on the presence of EBV relative load and rearranged T-cell receptors γ and β. Our approach was able to achieve 98.5% sensitivity and 100% specificity on DNA of known origin (458 blood and 316 LCL DNA). It was further applied to 1957 DNA samples from the CEPH Aging cohort comprising DNA of uncertain origin, identifying 784 blood and 1016 LCL DNA. A subset of these DNA was further analyzed with an epigenetic clock indicating that DNA extracted from blood should be preferred to LCL for DNA methylation-based age prediction analysis. Our approach could thereby be a powerful tool to ascertain the origin of DNA in old collections prior to (epi)genomic studies.

Chronological Age Prediction: Developmental Evaluation of DNA Methylation-Based Machine Learning Models

Epigenetic clock, a highly accurate age estimator based on DNA methylation (DNAm) level, is the basis for predicting mortality/morbidity and elucidating the molecular mechanism of aging, which is of great significance in forensics, justice, and social life. Herein, we integrated machine learning (ML) algorithms to construct blood epigenetic clock in Southern Han Chinese (CHS) for chronological age prediction. The correlation coefficient (r) meta-analyses of 7,084 individuals were firstly implemented to select five genes (ELOVL2, C1orf132, TRIM59, FHL2, and KLF14) from a candidate set of nine age-associated DNAm biomarkers. The DNAm-based profiles of the CHS cohort (240 blood samples differing in age from 1 to 81 years) were generated by the bisulfite targeted amplicon pyrosequencing (BTA-pseq) from 34 cytosine-phosphate-guanine sites (CpGs) of five selected genes, revealing that the methylation levels at different CpGs exhibit population specificity. Furthermore, we established and evaluated four chronological age prediction models using distinct ML algorithms: stepwise regression (SR), support vector regression (SVR-eps and SVR-nu), and random forest regression (RFR). The median absolute deviation (MAD) values increased with chronological age, especially in the 61–81 age category. No apparent gender effect was found in different ML models of the CHS cohort (all p &gt; 0.05). The MAD values were 2.97, 2.22, 2.19, and 1.29 years for SR, SVR-eps, SVR-nu, and RFR in the CHS cohort, respectively. Eventually, compared to the MAD range of the meta cohort (2.53–5.07 years), a promising RFR model (ntree = 500 and mtry = 8) was optimized with an MAD of 1.15 years in the 1–60 age categories of the CHS cohort, which could be regarded as a robust epigenetic clock in blood for age-related issues.

DNA methylation and histone variants in aging and cancer

Aging-related diseases such as cancer can be traced to the accumulation of molecular disorder including increased DNA mutations and epigenetic drift. We provide a comprehensive review of recent results in mice and humans on modifications of DNA methylation and histone variants during aging and in cancer. Accumulated errors in DNA methylation maintenance lead to global decreases in DNA methylation with relaxed repression of repeated DNA and focal hypermethylation blocking the expression of tumor suppressor genes. Epigenetic clocks based on quantifying levels of DNA methylation at specific genomic sites is proving to be a valuable metric for estimating the biological age of individuals. Histone variants have specialized functions in transcriptional regulation and genome stability. Their concentration tends to increase in aged post-mitotic chromatin, but their effects in cancer are mainly determined by their specialized functions. Our increased understanding of epigenetic regulation and their modifications during aging has motivated interventions to delay or reverse epigenetic modifications using the epigenetic clocks as a rapid readout for efficacity. Similarly, the knowledge of epigenetic modifications in cancer is suggesting new approaches to target these modifications for cancer therapy.