The influence of climate variability on demographic rates of avian Afro-palearctic migrants

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

Avian migration clocks in a changing world

Avian long-distance migration requires refined programming to orchestrate the birds' movements on annual temporal and continental spatial scales. Programming is particularly important as long-distance movements typically anticipate future environmental conditions. Hence, migration has long been of particular interest in chronobiology. Captivity studies using a proxy, the shift to nocturnality during migration seasons (i.e., migratory restlessness), have revealed circannual and circadian regulation, as well as an innate sense of direction. Thanks to rapid development of tracking technology, detailed information from free-flying birds, including annual-cycle data and actograms, now allows relating this mechanistic background to behaviour in the wild. Likewise, genomic approaches begin to unravel the many physiological pathways that contribute to migration. Despite these advances, it is still unclear how migration programmes are integrated with specific environmental conditions experienced during the journey. Such knowledge is imminently important as temporal environments undergo rapid anthropogenic modification. Migratory birds as a group are not dealing well with the changes, yet some species show remarkable adjustments at behavioural and genetic levels. Integrated research programmes and interdisciplinary collaborations are needed to understand the range of responses of migratory birds to environmental change, and more broadly, the functioning of timing programmes under natural conditions.

Ambient ozone - New threat to birds in mountain ecosystems?

Mountain ecosystems are inhabited by species with specific characteristics enabling survival at high altitudes, which make them at risk from various pressures. In order to study these pressures, birds represent excellent model organisms due to their high diversity and position at the top of food chains. The pressures upon mountain bird populations include climate change, human disturbance, land abandonment, and air pollution, whose impacts are little understood. Ambient ozone (O₃) is one of the most important air pollutants occurring in elevated concentrations in mountain conditions. Although laboratory experiments and indirect course-scale evidence suggest its negative effects on birds, population-level impacts remain unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we analysed a unique 25-years long time series of annual monitoring of bird populations conducted at fixed sites under constant effort in a Central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains, Czechia. We related annual population growth rates of 51 bird species to O₃ concentrations measured during the breeding season and hypothesized (i) an overall negative relationship across all species, and (ii) more negative O₃ effects at higher altitudes due to increasing O₃ concentration along altitudinal gradient. After controlling for the influence of weather conditions on bird population growth rates, we found an indication of the overall negative effect of O₃ concentration, but it was insignificant. However, the effect became stronger and significant when we performed a separate analysis of upland species occupying the alpine zone above treeline. In these species, populations growth rates were lower after the years experiencing higher O₃ concentration indicating an adverse impact of O₃ on bird breeding. This impact corresponds well to O₃ behaviour and mountain bird ecology. Our study thus represents the first step towards mechanistic understanding of O₃ impacts on animal populations in nature linking the experimental results with indirect indications at the country-level.

Species-specific traits mediate avian demographic responses under past climate change

Anticipating species' responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking, and the traits that mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life history traits associated with changes in effective population size (N_e) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to ongoing climate warming.

Survival fluctuation is linked to precipitation variation during staging in a migratory shorebird

Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.

Species Traits Drive Long-Term Population Trends of Common Breeding Birds in Northern Italy

Long-term population trends are considerable sources of information to set wildlife conservation priorities and to evaluate the performance of management actions. In addition, trends observed in functional groups (e.g., trophic guilds) can provide the foundation to test specific hypotheses about the drivers of the observed population dynamics. The aims of this study were to assess population trends of breeding birds in Lombardy (N Italy) from 1992 to 2019 and to explore the relationships between trends and species sharing similar ecological and life history traits. Trends were quantified and tested for significance by weighted linear regression models and using yearly population indices (median and 95% confidence interval) predicted through generalized additive models. Results showed that 45% of the species increased, 24% decreased, and 31% showed non-significant trends. Life history traits analyses revealed a general decrease of migrants, of species with short incubation period and of species with high annual fecundity. Ecological traits analyses showed that plant-eaters and species feeding on invertebrates, farmland birds, and ground-nesters declined, while woodland birds increased. Further studies should focus on investigation of the relationship between long-term trends and species traits at large spatial scales, and on quantifying the effects of specific drivers across multiple functional groups.