Analysis and prediction of air quality in Nanjing from autumn 2018 to summer 2019 using PCR-SVR-ARMA combined model

A method for calibrating measurement data of a micro air quality monitor based on MLR-BRT-ARIMA combined model

A micro air quality monitor can realize grid monitoring and real-time monitoring of air pollutants. Its development can effectively help human beings to control air pollution and improve air quality. However, affected by many factors, the measurement accuracy of micro air quality monitors needs to be improved. In this paper, a combined calibration model of Multiple Linear Regression, Boosted Regression Tree and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model (MLR-BRT-ARIMA) is proposed to calibrate the measurement data of the micro air quality monitor. First, the very widely used and easily interpretable multiple linear regression model is used to find the linear relationship between various pollutant concentrations and the measurement data of the micro air quality monitor to obtain the fitted values of various pollutant concentrations. Second, we take the measurement data of the micro air quality monitor and the fitted value of the multiple regression model as the input, and use the boosted regression tree to find the nonlinear relationship between the concentrations of various pollutants and the input variables. Finally, the autoregressive integrated moving average model is used to extract the information hidden in the residual sequence, and finally the establishment of the MLR-BRT-ARIMA model is completed. Root mean square error, mean absolute error and relative mean absolute percent error are used to compare the calibration effect of the MLR-BRT-ARIMA model and other commonly used models such as multilayer perceptron neural network, support vector regression machine and nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input. The results show that no matter what kind of pollutant, the MLR-BRT-ARIMA combined model proposed in this paper has the best performance of the three indicators. Using this model to calibrate the measurement value of the micro air quality monitor can improve the accuracy by 82.4-95.4%.

A novel encoder-decoder model based on Autoformer for air quality index prediction

Rapid economic development has led to increasingly serious air quality problems. Accurate air quality prediction can provide technical support for air pollution prevention and treatment. In this paper, we proposed a novel encoder-decoder model named as Enhanced Autoformer (EnAutoformer) to improve the air quality index (AQI) prediction. In this model, (a) The enhanced cross-correlation (ECC) is proposed for extracting the temporal dependencies in AQI time series; (b) Combining the ECC with the cross-stage feature fusion mechanism of CSPDenseNet, the core module CSP_ECC is proposed for improving the computational efficiency of the EnAutoformer. (c) The time series decomposition and dilated causal convolution added in the decoder module are exploited to extract the finer-grained features from the original AQI data and improve the performance of the proposed model for long-term prediction. The real-world air quality datasets collected from Lanzhou are used to validate the performance of our prediction model. The experimental results show that our EnAutoformer model can greatly improve the prediction accuracy compared to the baselines and can be used as a promising alternative for complex air quality prediction.

Prediction models for evaluating the impacts of ambient air pollutants on the biochemical response of selected tree species of Haridwar, India

This study aimed to assess the spatio-temporal impact of selected ambient air pollutants (SO₂, NO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5) on the biochemical response of four tree species including Neem (Azadirachta indica), Mountain cedar (Toona ciliate), Bottlebrush (Callistemon citrinus), and Guava (Psidium guajava) in the province of Haridwar City, Uttarakhand, India. The study was performed in 2020 and 2021 over three selected sites (S1: institutional; S2: industrial; and S3: urban). Purposely, seasonal data of ambient air pollutants and biochemical parameters (ascorbic acid, carotenoid, chlorophyll, pH, relative water content, and dust load) of selected tree species were collected and analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) tool to develop prediction models. The results indicated that biochemical parameters of all tree species were negatively impacted by the polluted ambient air quality in the industrial and urban (S2 and S3) sites as compared to the non-polluted institutional (S1) site. The models were characterized by high prediction performance as indicated by the coefficient of determination (R²) values greater than 0.80. Moreover, A. indica was found to be more 'tolerant' based on the air pollution tolerance index (APTI) followed by T. ciliate, P. guajava, and C. citrinus. Similarly, the anticipated performance index (API) was reported higher for A. indica (75 to 81.25%) followed by T. ciliate (68.75 to 75.00%), P. guajava (56.25%), and C. citrinus (37.50%), respectively. This study revealed that the selected tree species are being negatively impacted by the induced pollutant exposure in the urban and industrial region of Haridwar, India which needs sufficient mitigation measures to conserve their diversities.

Air-Quality Prediction Based on the EMD–IPSO–LSTM Combination Model

Owing to climate change, industrial pollution, and population gathering, the air quality status in many places in China is not optimal. The continuous deterioration of air-quality conditions has considerably affected the economic development and health of China’s people. However, the diversity and complexity of the factors which affect air pollution render air quality monitoring data complex and nonlinear. To improve the accuracy of prediction of the air quality index (AQI) and obtain more accurate AQI data with respect to their nonlinear and nonsmooth characteristics, this study introduces an air quality prediction model based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of LSTM and uses improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) to identify the optimal LSTM parameters. First, the model performed the EMD decomposition of air quality data and obtained uncoupled intrinsic mode function (IMF) components after removing noisy data. Second, we built an EMD–IPSO–LSTM air quality prediction model for each IMF component and extracted prediction values. Third, the results of validation analyses of the algorithm showed that compared with LSTM and EMD–LSTM, the improved model had higher prediction accuracy and improved the model fitting effect, which provided theoretical and technical support for the prediction and management of air pollution.

A data calibration method for micro air quality detectors based on a LASSO regression and NARX neural network combined model

Studies have shown that there is a certain correlation between air pollution and various human diseases, especially lung diseases, so it is very meaningful to monitor the concentration of pollutants in the air. Compared with the national air quality monitoring station (national control point), the micro air quality detector has the advantage that it can monitor the concentration of pollutants in real time and grid, but its measurement accuracy needs to be improved. This paper proposes a model combining the least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) regression and nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs (NARX) to calibrate the data measured by the micro air quality detector. Before establishing the LASSO-NARX model, correlation analysis is used to test whether the correlation between the concentration of air pollutants and its influencing factors is significant, and to find out the main factors that affect the concentration of pollutants. Due to the multicollinearity between various influencing factors, LASSO regression is used to further screen the influencing factors and give the quantitative relationship between the pollutant concentration and various influencing factors. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of pollutant concentration, the predicted value of each pollutant concentration in the LASSO regression model and the measurement data of the micro air quality detector are used as input variables, and the LASSO-NARX model is constructed using the NARX neural network. Several indicators such as goodness of fit, root mean square error, mean absolute error and relative mean absolute percent error are used to compare various air quality models. The results show that the prediction results of the LASSO-NARX model are not only better than the LASSO model alone and the NARX model alone, but also better than the commonly used multilayer perceptron and radial basis function neural network. Using this model to calibrate the measurement data of the micro air quality detector can increase the accuracy by 61.3-91.7%.

Application of RR-XGBoost combined model in data calibration of micro air quality detector

Grid monitoring is the current development direction of atmospheric monitoring. The micro air quality detector is of great help to the grid monitoring of the atmosphere, so higher requirements are put forward for the accuracy of the micro air quality detector. This paper presents a model to calibrate the measurement data of the micro air quality detector using the monitoring data of the air quality monitoring station. The concentration of six types of air pollutants is the research object of this study to establish a calibration model for the measurement data of the micro air quality detector. The first step is to use correlation analysis to find out the main factors affecting the concentration of the six types of pollutants. The second step uses Ridge Regression (RR) to select variables, find out the factors that have significant effects on the concentration of pollutants, and give the quantitative relationship between these factors and the pollutants. Finally, the predicted value of the ridge regression model and the measurement data of the micro air quality detector are used as input variables, and the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm is used to give the final pollutant concentration prediction model. We named the combined model of ridge regression and XGBoost algorithm RR-XGBoost model. Relative Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), goodness of fit (R²), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the RR-XGBoost model. The results show that the model is superior to some commonly used pollutant prediction methods such as random forest, support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron neural network in the evaluation of various indicators. The model not only has a good prediction effect on the training set but also on the test set, indicating that the model has good generalization ability. Using the RR-XGBoost model to calibrate the data of the micro air quality detector can make up for the shortcomings of the data monitoring accuracy of the micro air quality detector. The model plays an active role in the deployment of micro air quality detectors and grid monitoring of the atmosphere.

Application of combined model of stepwise regression analysis and artificial neural network in data calibration of miniature air quality detector

In this paper, six types of air pollutant concentrations are taken as the research object, and the data monitored by the micro air quality detector are calibrated by the national control point measurement data. We use correlation analysis to find out the main factors affecting air quality, and then build a stepwise regression model for six types of pollutants based on 8 months of data. Taking the stepwise regression fitting value and the data monitored by the miniature air quality detector as input variables, combined with the multilayer perceptron neural network, the SRA-MLP model was obtained to correct the pollutant data. We compared the stepwise regression model, the standard multilayer perceptron neural network and the SRA-MLP model by three indicators. Whether it is root mean square error, average absolute error or average relative error, SRA-MLP model is the best model. Using the SRA-MLP model to correct the data can increase the accuracy of the self-built point data by 42.5% to 86.5%. The SRA-MLP model has excellent prediction effects on both the training set and the test set, indicating that it has good generalization ability. This model plays a positive role in scientific arrangement and promotion of miniature air quality detectors. It can be applied not only to air quality monitoring, but also to the monitoring of other environmental indicators.