Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L

Expanding the boundaries in the face of global warming: A lesson from genetic and ecological niche studies of Centaurium erythraea in Europe

Climate change affects plant species, especially those with restricted ecology and distribution. Centaurium erythraea is a flowering plant species in the Gentianaceae family, native to Europe, with its centre of diversity in the Mediterranean and western Asia. Of the 11 infraspecific taxa distinct from C. erythraea, only two are common in Europe: C. erythraea subsp. erythraea (widespread nominal subspecies) and C. erythraea subsp. majus (mainly distributed in the western Mediterranean region). Freshly collected samples of 36 plants from 11 localities across Lower Silesia (Central Europe) were utilised for taxonomic and genetic analysis. The barcode sequences of chloroplast DNA region matK were used for molecular analysis. Data deposited in GenBank was also used. Five haplotypes were identified among the analysed specimens. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were applied to predict the current and future (short- and long-term projections) potential distribution of C. erythraea subsp. majus and to identify the most influential climatic factors. Despite the typical Mediterranean distribution, the presence of C. erythraea subsp. majus outside its natural range in SW Poland has been confirmed by morphological and genetic studies. The mean monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean daily temperatures of the warmest quarter were identified as the key climatic factors. Short-term scenarios suggest that C. erythraea subsp. majus will maintain most of its current suitable habitats and potentially expand into the lowlands of Central Europe. However, long-term projections indicate a potential reduction in its currently suitable areas, especially in the southern parts of its range, with a possible expansion into north-western Europe. The results of these studies provide clear evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change on species range changes. These findings suggest that climate change may create new opportunities for Mediterranean species to spread to new regions, using C. erythraea subsp. majus as an example.

Multitemporal Land Use and Cover Analysis Coupled with Climatic Change Scenarios to Protect the Endangered Taxon Asphodelus bento-rainhae subsp. bento-rainhae

Climate change and land use and land cover (LULC) change are impacting the species' geographic distribution, causing range shifts and reducing suitable habitats. Asphodelus bento-rainhae subsp. bento-rainhae (AbR) is an endangered endemic plant restricted to Serra da Gardunha (Portugal), and knowledge of those changes will help to design conservation measures. MaxEnt was used to model AbR's current distribution and project it into the future, 2050, using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP3-7. The Portuguese LULC maps from 1951-1980, 1995, 2007, and 2018 were used to assess and quantify LULC changes over time. The results showed that the AbR current predicted distribution matches its actual known distribution, which will not be affected by future predicted climate change. The significant LULC changes were observed during the study periods 1951-1980 to 2018, particularly between 1951-1980 and 1995. Scrubland and Agriculture decreased by 5% and 2.5%, respectively, and Forests increased by 4% in the study area. In the occurrence area, Agriculture increased, and Forests decreased between 1980 and 2018, due to Orchard expansion (34%) and declines in Chestnut (16.9%) and Pine (11%) areas, respectively. The use of species distribution models and the LULC change analysis contributed to understanding current and future species distribution. The LULC changes will have a significant impact on future species distribution. To prevent the extinction of this endemic species in the future, it is crucial to implement conservation measures, namely species monitoring, replantation, and germplasm conservation, in addition to guidelines for habitat conservation.

Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L

Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future (for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The species’ presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050 and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most suitable for the species’ occurrence and that future changes in environmental conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification avoidance.

Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for two endangered mountaintop frogs from the rainforests of subtropical Australia

Montane ecosystems cover approximately 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface and are centres of endemism. Globally, anthropogenic climate change is driving population declines and local extinctions across multiple montane taxa, including amphibians. We applied the maximum entropy approach to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of two poorly known amphibian species (Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis) endemic to the subtropical uplands of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia, World Heritage Area (GRAWHA). Firstly, under current climate conditions and also future (2055) low and high warming scenarios. We validated current distribution models against models developed using presence-absence field data. Our models were highly concordant with known distributions and predicted the current distribution of P. kundagungan to contract by 64% under the low warming scenario and by 91% under the high warming scenario and that P. richmondensis would contract by 50% and 85%, respectively. With large areas of habitat already impacted by wildfires, conservation efforts for both these species need to be initiated urgently. We propose several options, including establishing ex-situ insurance populations increasing the long-term viability of both species in the wild through conservation translocations.

Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter-glacial

Climate change affects the species spatio-temporal distribution deeply. However, how climate affects the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of related species on the large scale remains largely unclear. Here, we selected two closely related species in Taxus genus Taxus chinensis and Taxus mairei to explore their distribution pattern. Four environmental variables were employed to simulate the distribution patterns using the optimized Maxent model. The results showed that the highly suitable area of T. chinensis and T. mairei in current period was 1.616 × 105 km2 and 3.093 × 105 km2, respectively. The distribution area of T. chinensis was smaller than that of T. mairei in different periods. Comparison of different periods shown that the distribution area of the two species was almost in stasis from LIG to the future periods. Temperature and precipitation were the main climate factors that determined the potential distribution of the two species. The centroids of T. chinensis and T. mairei were in Sichuan and Hunan provinces in current period, respectively. In the future, the centroid migration direction of the two species would shift towards northeast. Our results revealed that the average elevation distribution of T. chinensis was higher than that of T. mairei. This study sheds new insights into the habitat preference and limiting environment factors of the two related species and provides a valuable reference for the conservation of these two threatened species.

Eucalypt Recruitment and Invasion Potential in Protected Areas of the Iberian Peninsula under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Eucalyptus globulus Labill. stands have been expanding in protected areas (sites) of the Natura 2000 network in the Iberian Peninsula (Iberia). This expansion is mostly human-driven, but there is increasing evidence of plant recruitment and escape from cultivation areas. Therefore, it is important to assess the recruitment and invasion potential of sites and associated habitats and how future climate may change this potential. Here, we use SDMs to project current and future climatic suitability for E. globulus recruitment in Iberia and combine this suitability with local factors to rate the current recruitment potential of eucalypt stands. This potential is then extrapolated to neighbour areas in Natura 2000 sites to assess the invasion potential. The results show a wide recruitment range along coastal regions of western and northern Iberia (83,275 km2) and a northward contraction under climate change, similar to the trend projected for plantation suitability. Recruitment potential of any level was identified in 989 km2, while invasion potential was identified in 878 km2 across 176 Natura 2000 sites. Heathlands and riparian forests were associated with the largest recruitment and invasion potential areas. This study may help in preventing further negative impacts in protected areas and habitats already affected by E. globulus expansion.