Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate

Northwestern Pacific Oceanic circulation shaped by ENSO

The intricate currents of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, with strong manifestations along the westside rim, connect tropical and subtropical gyres and significantly influence East Asian and global climates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and disrupts this ocean circulation system. However, the spatiotemporal dependence of the impact of ENSO events has yet to be elucidated because of the complexities of both ENSO events and circulation systems, as well as the increased availability of observational data. We thus combined altimeter and drifter observations to demonstrate the distinct tropical and subtropical influences of the circulation system on ENSO diversity. During El Niño years, the North Equatorial Current, North Equatorial Countercurrent, Mindanao Current, Indonesian Throughflow, and the subtropical Kuroshio Current and its Extension region exhibit strengthening, while the tropical Kuroshio Current weakens. The tropical impact is characterized by sea level changes in the warm pool, whereas the subtropical influence is driven by variations in the wind stress curl. The tropical and subtropical influences are amplified during the Centra Pacific El Niño years compared to the Eastern Pacific El Niño years. As the globe warms, these impacts are anticipated to intensify. Thus, strengthening observation systems and refining climate models are essential for understanding and projecting the enhancing influences of ENSO on the Northwest Pacific Oceanic circulation.

Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014-2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8-16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = -0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific-central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical-extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation

Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key source of multi-year El Niño events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger a Central Pacific El Niño during the subsequent winter, which excites atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics that re-energize the NPO variability, then re-triggers another El Niño event in the following winter, finally resulting in persistent El Niño-like states. Model experiments, with the NPO forcing assimilated to constrain atmospheric circulation, reproduce the observed connection between NPO forcing and the occurrence of multi-year El Niño events. Future projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 models demonstrate that with enhanced NPO variability under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent multi-year El Niño events should be expected. We conclude that properly accounting for the effects of the NPO on the evolution of El Niño events may improve multi-year El Niño prediction and projection.

The causes of long-lasting behaviors of multi-year El Niño are still not fully understood. Here, the authors find that persistent two-way teleconnections between the North Pacific Oscillation and the tropical Pacific constitute a key source of multi-year El Niño.

High-Resolution Seamless Daily Sea Surface Temperature Based on Satellite Data Fusion and Machine Learning over Kuroshio Extension

Sea SurfaceTemperature (SST) is a critical parameter for monitoring the marine environment and understanding various ocean phenomena. While SST can be regularly retrieved from satellite data, it often suffers from missing data due to various reasons including cloud contamination. In this study, we proposed a novel two-step data fusion framework for generating high-resolution seamless daily SST from multi-satellite data sources. The proposed approach consists of (1) SST reconstruction based on Data Interpolate Convolutional AutoEncoder (DINCAE) using the SSTs derived from two satellite sensors (i.e., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2(AMSR2)), and (2) SST improvement through data fusion using random forest for consistency with in situ measurements with two schemes (i.e., scheme 1 using the reconstructed MODIS SST variables and scheme 2 using both MODIS and AMSR2 SST variables). The proposed approach was evaluated over the Kuroshio Extension in the Northwest Pacific, where a highly dynamic SST pattern can be found, from 2015 to 2019. The results showed that the reconstructed MODIS and AMSR2 SSTs through DINCAE yielded very good performance with Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) of 0.85 and 0.60 °C and Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) of 0.59 and 0.45 °C, respectively. The results from the second step showed that scheme 2 and scheme 1 produced RMSEs of 0.75 and 0.98 °C and MAEs of 0.53 and 0.68 °C, respectively, compared to the in situ measurements, which proved the superiority of scheme 2 using multi-satellite data sources. Scheme 2 also showed comparable or even better performance than two operational SST products with similar spatial resolution. In particular, scheme 2 was good at simulating features with fine resolution (~50 km). The proposed approach yielded promising results over the study area, producing seamless daily SST products with high quality and high feature resolution.