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von Jeetze PJ, Weindl I, Johnson JA, Borrelli P, Panagos P, Molina Bacca EJ, Karstens K, Humpenöder F, Dietrich JP, Minoli S, Müller C, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A. Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2515. [PMID: 37193693 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38043-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Land conservation and increased carbon uptake on land are fundamental to achieving the ambitious targets of the climate and biodiversity conventions. Yet, it remains largely unknown how such ambitions, along with an increasing demand for agricultural products, could drive landscape-scale changes and affect other key regulating nature's contributions to people (NCP) that sustain land productivity outside conservation priority areas. By using an integrated, globally consistent modelling approach, we show that ambitious carbon-focused land restoration action and the enlargement of protected areas alone may be insufficient to reverse negative trends in landscape heterogeneity, pollination supply, and soil loss. However, we also find that these actions could be combined with dedicated interventions that support critical NCP and biodiversity conservation outside of protected areas. In particular, our models indicate that conserving at least 20% semi-natural habitat within farmed landscapes could primarily be achieved by spatially relocating cropland outside conservation priority areas, without additional carbon losses from land-use change, primary land conversion or reductions in agricultural productivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick José von Jeetze
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany.
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Isabelle Weindl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Justin Andrew Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1940 Buford Ave, Saint Paul, MN, 55105, USA
| | - Pasquale Borrelli
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Science, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy
| | - Panos Panagos
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), IT-21027, Italy
| | - Edna J Molina Bacca
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Kristine Karstens
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Jan Philipp Dietrich
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sara Minoli
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
- Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
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Complex agricultural landscapes host more biodiversity than simple ones: A global meta-analysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:e2203385119. [PMID: 36095174 PMCID: PMC9499564 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203385119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Agricultural land, the world’s largest human-managed ecosystem, forms the matrix that connects remnant and fragmented patches of natural vegetation where nondomesticated biodiversity struggles to survive. Increasing the resources that this matrix can offer to biodiversity is critical to halting biodiversity loss. Our comprehensive meta-analysis demonstrates the positive and significant effect on biodiversity of increasing landscape complexity in agricultural lands. We found more biodiversity in complex landscapes, potentially contributing to agriculture production, ecosystem resilience, and human well-being. Current biodiversity conservation strategies tend to focus on natural ecosystems, often ignoring opportunities to boost biodiversity in agricultural landscapes. Our findings provide a strong scientific evidence base for synergistically managing agriculture at the landscape level for biodiversity conservation and sustainable production. Managing agricultural landscapes to support biodiversity conservation requires profound structural changes worldwide. Often, discussions are centered on management at the field level. However, a wide and growing body of evidence calls for zooming out and targeting agricultural policies, research, and interventions at the landscape level to halt and reverse the decline in biodiversity, increase biodiversity-mediated ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes, and improve the resilience and adaptability of these ecosystems. We conducted the most comprehensive assessment to date on landscape complexity effects on nondomesticated terrestrial biodiversity through a meta-analysis of 1,134 effect sizes from 157 peer-reviewed articles. Increasing landscape complexity through changes in composition, configuration, or heterogeneity significatively and positively affects biodiversity. More complex landscapes host more biodiversity (richness, abundance, and evenness) with potential benefits to sustainable agricultural production and conservation, and effects are likely underestimated. The few articles that assessed the combined contribution of linear (e.g., hedgerows) and areal (e.g., woodlots) elements resulted in a near-doubling of the effect sizes (i.e., biodiversity level) compared to the dominant number of studies measuring these elements separately. Similarly, positive effects on biodiversity are stronger in articles monitoring biodiversity for at least 2 y compared to the dominant 1-y monitoring efforts. Besides, positive and stronger effects exist when monitoring occurs in nonoverlapping landscapes, highlighting the need for long-term and robustly designed monitoring efforts. Living in harmony with nature will require shifting paradigms toward valuing and promoting multifunctional agriculture at the farm and landscape levels with a research agenda that untangles complex agricultural landscapes’ contributions to people and nature under current and future conditions.
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