A validation study comparing existing prediction models of acute kidney injury in patients with acute heart failure

Acute Kidney Disease After Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Introduction

Acute kidney disease (AKD) represents a continuum of kidney injury for 7 to 90 days after acute kidney injury (AKI). The incidence and prognosis of AKD after acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are currently unclear. The aims of this study were to explore the incidence of AKD and the transition from AKI to AKD, to identify risk factors for AKD and develop a prediction model for any-stage AKD, and to evaluate the prognosis of AKD.

Methods

A total of 7519 patients admitted for ADHF between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2018, from a multi-institutional database were identified. The composite outcomes after ADHF were stage 3 AKD and all-cause death. The prognosis impact of AKD, including major adverse kidney events (MAKEs), all-cause death, and heart failure hospitalization (HFH), during 5 years of follow-up was analyzed.

Results

The overall incidence of AKI and AKD after ADHF was 9% and 21.2%, respectively; 39.4% of the patients diagnosed with having AKI during ADHF subsequently developed AKD whereas 19.4% of the patients without an identified AKI episode subsequently developed AKD. The predictive scoring models revealed C-statistics of 0.726 (95% CI: 0.712–0.740) for any-stage AKD and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.793–0.821) for the composite of stage 3 AKD and death. Finally, AKD was associated with higher risks of all-cause death, MAKE, and HFH during the 5 years of follow-up (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

AKD after ADHF are associated with adverse outcomes. Our model could help in identification of patients at risk for AKD development, especially in those who did not have an index AKI episode.