A hidden Markov model for lymphatic tumor progression in the head and neck

Patterns of lymph node involvement for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

AIM

Whereas the prevalence of lymph node level (LNL) involvement in oral cavity squamous cell carcinomas (OCSCC) has been reported, the details of lymphatic progression patterns are insufficiently quantified. We investigate how the risk of metastases in each LNL depends on the involvement of adjacent LNLs, T-category, subsite, primary tumor lateralization, and other risk factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed patients with newly diagnosed OCSCC from two institutions, totaling 348 patients. Involvement of LNLs I-V was recorded individually based on pathology after neck dissection with clinicopathological factors. The dataset is publicly available in a previously developed web-app, which allows querying patients with specific combinations of co-involved LNLs and tumor characteristics.

RESULTS

Ipsilateral involvement prevalence of levels I-III was higher for advanced T-category (T3/T4) patients (32 %, 38 %, 14 %) compared to early (T1/T2) patients (14 %, 23 %, 11 %). Involvement of level I increased the involvement probability in levels II and III. Similarly, involvement of level II increased the involvement probability in levels I and III. However, there was significant isolated involvement of level I or II. Advanced nodal involvement (>1 LNL involved) was more frequent for patients with extracapsular extension. Overall contralateral involvement in levels I-III was 7 %, 4 %, 3 % and more frequent for more advanced ipsilateral involvement and for midline-crossing tumors. Involvement of levels IV and V was rare: 3 % ipsilateral and 1 % contralateral in both levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Detailed quantification of LNL involvement in OCSCC depending on involvement of adjacent LNLs and clinicopathological factors may allow further personalizing guidelines on elective nodal treatment.

Modelling the lymphatic metastatic progression pathways of OPSCC from multi-institutional datasets

The elective clinical target volume (CTV-N) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is currently based mostly on the prevalence of lymph node metastases in different lymph node levels (LNLs) for a given primary tumor location. We present a probabilistic model for ipsilateral lymphatic spread that can quantify the microscopic nodal involvement risk based on an individual patient's T-category and clinical involvement of LNLs at diagnosis. We extend a previously published hidden Markov model (HMM), which models the LNLs (I, II, III, IV, V, and VII) as hidden binary random variables (RVs). Each represents a patient's true state of lymphatic involvement. Clinical involvement at diagnosis represents the observed binary RVs linked to the true state via sensitivity and specificity. The primary tumor and the hidden RVs are connected in a graph. Each edge represents the conditional probability of metastatic spread per abstract time-step, given disease at the edge's starting node. To learn these probabilities, we draw Markov chain Monte Carlo samples from the likelihood of a dataset (686 OPSCC patients) from three institutions. We compute the model evidence using thermodynamic integration for different graphs to determine which describes the data best.The graph maximizing the model evidence connects the tumor to each LNL and the LNLs I through V in order. It predicts the risk of occult disease in level IV is below 5% if level III is clinically negative, and that the risk of occult disease in level V is below 5% except for advanced T-category (T3 and T4) patients with clinical involvement of levels II, III, and IV. The provided statistical model of nodal involvement in OPSCC patients trained on multi-institutional data may guide the design of clinical trials on volume-deescalated treatment of OPSCC and contribute to more personal guidelines on elective nodal treatment.

Multicriteria optimization of the composition, thermodynamic and strength properties of fly-ash as an additive in metakaolin-based geopolymer composites

This paper presents the construction of intelligent systems for selecting the optimum concentration of geopolymer matrix components based on ranking optimality criteria. A peculiarity of the methodology is replacing discrete time intervals with a sequence of states. Markov chains represent a synthetic property accumulating heterogeneous factors. The computational basis for the calculations was the digitization of experimental data on the strength properties of fly ashes collected from thermal power plants in the Czech Republic and used as additives in geopolymers. A database and a conceptual model of priority ranking have been developed, that are suitable for determining the structure of relations of the main factors. Computational results are presented by studying geopolymer matrix structure formation kinetics under changing component concentrations in real- time. Multicriteria optimization results for fly-ash as an additive on metakaolin-based geopolymer composites show that the optimal composition of the geopolymer matrix within the selected variation range includes 100 g metakaolin, 90 g potassium activator, 8 g silica fume, 2 g basalt fibers and 50 g fly ash by ratio weight. This ratio gives the best mechanical, thermal, and technological properties.

A multi-centric dataset on patient-individual pathological lymph node involvement in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Dataset

We provide a dataset on lymph node metastases in 968 patients with newly diagnosed head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). All patients received neck dissection and we report the number of metastatic versus investigated lymph nodes per lymph node level (LNL) for every individual patient. Additionally, clinicopathological factors including T-category, primary tumor subsite (ICD-O-3 code), age, and sex are reported for all patients. The data is provided as three datasets: Dataset 1 contains 373 HNSCC patients treated at Centre Léon Bérard (CLB), France, with primary tumor location in the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx. Dataset 2 contains 332 HNSCC patients treated at the Inselspital, Bern University Hospital (ISB), Switzerland with primary tumor location in the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx. For these patients, additional information is provided including lateralization of the primary tumor, size and location of the largest metastases, and clinical involvement based on computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and/or 18FDG-positron emission tomography (PET/CT) imaging. Dataset 3 consists of 263 oropharyngeal SCC patients underlying a previous publication by Bauwens et al. [1], which were treated at CLB. For these patients, additional information including HPV status, lateralization of the primary tumor and clinically diagnosed lymph node involvement is provided.

Reuse Potential

The data may be used to quantify the probability of occult lymph node metastases in each LNL, depending on an individual patient's characteristics of the primary tumor and the location of clinically diagnosed lymph node metastases. As such, the data may contribute to further personalize the elective treatment of the neck for HNSCC patients, i.e. definition of the elective clinical target volume (CTV-N) in radiotherapy (RT) and the extent of neck dissection (ND) in surgery. There exists only one similar publicly available dataset that reports clinical involvement per LNL in 287 oropharyngeal SCC patients [2]. The data presented in this article substantially extends the available data, it additionally includes pathologically assessed involvement per LNL, and it provides data for multiple subsites in the head and neck region.

A dataset on patient-individual lymph node involvement in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Dataset

We provide a dataset on lymph node level (LNL) involvement in 287 patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). For each patient, ipsilateral and contralateral LNL involvement for levels I to VII is reported together with clinicopathological factors including TNM-stage, primary tumor subsite, tumor lateralization, HPV status, sex, age, smoking status, and primary treatment. LNL involvement was assessed individually based on available diagnostic modalities (PET, MRI, CT, fine needle aspiration) by reviewing pathology and radiology reports together with the radiological images. The data is shared as a CSV-table with rows of patients and columns of patient/tumor-specific information and the involvement of individual LNL based on the respective diagnostic modalities.

Reuse potential

Patterns of lymphatic progression have never been reported on a patient-individual basis in as much detail as provided in this dataset. The data can be used to build quantitative models for lymphatic tumor progression to estimate the probability of occult metastases in LNLs. This may in turn allow for further personalization of the elective clinical target volume definition in radiotherapy and the extent of neck dissection for surgically treated patients. The data can be pooled with other data to build large multi-institutional datasets on lymphatic metastatic progression in the future.

Co-submission

This paper supports the original scientific article by Roman Ludwig, Jean-Marc Hoffmann, Bertrand Pouymayou, Grégoire Morand, Martina Broglie Däppen, Matthias Guckenberger, Vincent Grégoire, Panagiotis Balermpas, Jan Unkelbach, “Detailed patient-individual reporting of lymph node involvement in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma with an online interface”, Radiotherapy & Oncology [1]

Detailed patient-individual reporting of lymph node involvement in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma with an online interface

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE

Whereas the prevalence of lymph node level (LNL) involvement in head & neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) has been reported, the details of lymphatic progression patterns are insufficiently quantified. In this study, we investigate how the risk of metastases in each LNL depends on the involvement of upstream LNLs, T-category, HPV status and other risk factors.

MATERIALS/METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed patients with newly diagnosed oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) treated at a single institution, resulting in a dataset of 287 patients. For all patients, involvement of LNLs I-VII was recorded individually based on available diagnostic modalities (PET, MR, CT, FNA) together with clinicopathological factors. To analyze the dataset, a web-based graphical user interface (GUI) was developed, which allows querying the number of patients with a certain combination of co-involved LNLs and tumor characteristics.

RESULTS

The full dataset and GUI is part of the publication. Selected findings are: Ipsilateral level IV was involved in 27% of patients with level II and III involvement, but only in 2% of patients with level II but not III involvement. Prevalence of involvement of ipsilateral levels II, III, IV, V was 79%, 34%, 7%, 3% for early T-category patients (T1/T2) and 85%, 50%, 17%, 9% for late T-category (T3/T4), quantifying increasing involvement with T-category. Contralateral levels II, III, IV were involved in 41%, 19%, 4% and 12%, 3%, 2% for tumors for tumors with and without midline extension, respectively. T-stage dependence of LNL involvement was more pronounced in HPV negative than positive tumors, but overall involvement was similar. Ipsilateral level VII was involved in 14% and 6% of patients with primary tumors in the tonsil and the base of tongue, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Detailed quantification of LNL involvement in HNSCC depending on involvement of upstream LNLs and clinicopathological factors may allow for further personalization of CTV-N definition in the future.