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Zhang Q, Sharma U, Dennis JA, Scifo A, Kuitems M, Büntgen U, Owens MJ, Dee MW, Pope BJS. Modelling cosmic radiation events in the tree-ring radiocarbon record. Proc Math Phys Eng Sci 2022. [DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2022.0497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Annually resolved measurements of the radiocarbon content in tree-rings have revealed rare sharp rises in carbon-14 production. These ‘Miyake events’ are likely produced by rare increases in cosmic radiation from the Sun or other energetic astrophysical sources. The radiocarbon produced is not only circulated through the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans, but also absorbed by the biosphere and locked in the annual growth rings of trees. To interpret high-resolution tree-ring radiocarbon measurements therefore necessitates modelling the entire global carbon cycle. Here, we introduce ‘
ticktack
’ (
https://github.com/SharmaLlama/ticktack/
), the first open-source Python package that connects box models of the carbon cycle with modern Bayesian inference tools. We use this to analyse all public annual
14
C
tree data, and infer posterior parameters for all six known Miyake events. They do not show a consistent relationship to the solar cycle, and several display extended durations that challenge either astrophysical or geophysical models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingyuan Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland,St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Utkarsh Sharma
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland,St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Jordan A. Dennis
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland,St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
| | - Andrea Scifo
- Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Margot Kuitems
- Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Ulf Büntgen
- Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
- Global Change Research Institute (CzechGlobe), Czech Academy of Sciences, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, 61137 Brno, Czech Republic
- Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Mathew J. Owens
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate,PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
| | - Michael W. Dee
- Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Benjamin J. S. Pope
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland,St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia
- Centre for Astrophysics, University of Southern Queensland,West Street, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350, Australia
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