Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using age and liver stiffness on transient elastography after hepatitis C virus eradication

Long-term risk of HCC in a DAA-treated national hepatitis C cohort, and a proposed risk score

BACKGROUND

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains elevated in cirrhotic hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response (SVR) after DAA treatment. We assessed long-term HCC risk stratified by pretreatment liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and developed a risk score algorithm.

METHODS

This register-based nationwide cohort study of 7,227 DAA-treated patients with SVR evaluated annual HCC incidence rates (IRs) and cumulative incidences stratified by pretreatment LSM. The association between LSM and HCC risk was analyzed using multivariate Cox regression. A risk score algorithm was developed and internally validated in 2,664 individuals with LSM >9.5 kPa, assigning each patient a score based on risk factors, proportionally weighted by the association with HCC risk.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 1.8 years (3.2 years for LSM ≥12.5 kPa), 92 patients (1.3%) developed HCC. The IRs for LSM 9.5-12.4, 12.5-19.9 and ≥20 kPa were 0.21, 0.99 and 2.20 HCC/100 PY, respectively, with no significant risk reduction during follow-up. The HRs (and 95% CI) for LSM 9.5-12.5, 12.5-19.9 and ≥20 kPa are 1.19 (0.43-3.28), 4.66 (2.17-10.01) and 10.53 (5.26-21.08), respectively. Risk score models including FIB-4, alcohol, diabetes, age and LSM effectively stratified patients with LSM >9.5 kPa into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, with a Harrell's C of 0.799. Notably, 48% with LSM ≥9.5 kPa and 27% ≥12.5 kPa were classified as low-risk.

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment LSM is associated with HCC risk, which remains stable during the initial five years post-SVR. The HCC risk score algorithm effectively identifies low-risk patients, who may not require HCC surveillance.

Non-invasive prediction of post-sustained virological response hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis C virus: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

Despite advances in antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still develops even after sustained viral response (SVR) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis. This meta-analysis investigated the predictive performance of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and fibrosis 4-index (FIB-4) for the development of HCC after SVR.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for studies examining the predictive performance of these tests in adult patients with HCV. Two authors independently screened the studies' methodological quality and extracted data. Pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated for HCC development using random-effects bivariate logit normal and linear-mixed effect models.

RESULTS

We included 27 studies (169,911 patients). Meta-analysis of HCC after SVR was possible in nine VCTE and 15 FIB-4 studies. Regarding the prediction of HCC development after SVR, the pooled AUCs of pre-treatment VCTE >9.2-13 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 were 0.79 and 0.73, respectively. VCTE >8.4-11 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 measured after SVR maintained good predictive performance, albeit slightly reduced (pooled AUCs: 0.77 and 0.70, respectively). The identified optimal cut-off value for HCC development after SVR was 12.6 kPa for pre-treatment VCTE. That of VCTE measured after the SVR was 11.2 kPa.

CONCLUSION

VCTE and FIB-4 showed acceptable predictive performance for HCC development in patients with HCV who achieved SVR, underscoring their utility in clinical practice for guiding surveillance strategies. Future studies are needed to validate these findings prospectively and validate their clinical impact.

Liver Stiffness Evaluation in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Cirrhosis before and after Direct-Acting Antivirals

After the introduction of direct-acting antivirals, parallel significant clinical progress has been achieved in the assessment of liver fibrosis progression/regression before treatment and during the follow-up of the cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The evolution of chronic hepatitis C into liver cirrhosis is correlated with an extensive accumulation of the extracellular matrix, leading to the formation of large amounts of fibrotic tissues that, initially, are concentrated in periportal areas and, in the later stages, surround the nodules of regenerating hepatocytes. The progressive increase in the fibrotic matrix contributes to vascular disturbances (favoring the development of portal hypertension) and to microenvironmental changes. The four clinical stages of liver cirrhosis are predictors for different clinical scenarios. The wide-ranging functions of the liver require different methods for their assessment. The non-invasive evaluation using transient elastography is useful in determining the longitudinal modifications of fibrosis during and after treatment with direct-acting antivirals. The liver stiffness evaluation, known to have a wide range of values in cirrhotic patients, can offer different prognostic implications after sustained virological response. This review discusses the different time points of liver stiffness evaluation that appear to show a more well-defined propensity to identify adequate monitoring schedules for these patients.

Shear-wave elastography to predict hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) are highly effective treatment for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with a significant rate of sustained virologic response (SVR). The achievement of SVR is crucial to prevent additional liver damage and slow down fibrosis progression. The assessment of fibrosis degree can be performed with transient elastography, magnetic resonance elastography or shear-wave elastography (SWE). Liver elastography could function as a predictor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in CHC patients treated with DAAs.

AIM

To explore the predictive value of SWE for HCC development after complete clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV).

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search of clinical studies was performed to identify the ability of SWE to predict HCC occurrence after HCV clearance. In accordance with the study protocol, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the evidence was planned.

RESULTS

At baseline and after 12 wk of follow-up, a trend was shown towards greater liver stiffness (LS) in those who go on to develop HCC compared to those who do not [baseline LS standardized mean difference (SMD): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 020-2.50; LS SMD after 12 wk: 0.83, 95%CI: 0.33-1.98]. The absence of a statistically significant difference between the mean LS in those who developed HCC or not may be related to the inability to correct for confounding factors and the absence of raw source data. There was a statistically significant LS SMD at 24 wk of follow-up between patients who developed HCC vs not (0.64; 95%CI: 0.04-1.24).

CONCLUSION

SWE could be a promising tool for prediction of HCC occurrence in patients treated with DAAs. Further studies with larger cohorts and standardized timing of elastographic evaluation are needed to confirm these data.

Shear Wave Elastography for Assessing Liver Stiffness in HCV-Infected Kidney Transplant Recipients after Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment: A Comparative Study with Magnetic Resonance Elastography

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can lead to hepatic fibrosis. The advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) has substantially improved sustained virological response (SVR) rates. In this context, kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) are of particular interest due to their higher HCV infection rates and uncertain renal excretion and bioavailability of DAAs. We investigated liver stiffness after DAA treatment in 15 HCV-infected KTRs using ultrasound shear wave elastography (SWE) in comparison with magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). KTRs were treated with DAAs (daclatasvir and sofosbuvir) for three months and underwent SWE at baseline, end of therapy (EOT), and 3 (EOT+3) and 12 months (EOT+12) after EOT. Fourteen patients achieved SVR12. Shear wave speed (SWS)-as a surrogate parameter for tissue stiffness-was substantially lower at all three post-therapeutic timepoints compared with baseline (EOT: -0.42 m/s, p < 0.01; CI = -0.75--0.09, EOT+3: -0.43 m/s, p < 0.01; CI = -0.75--0.11, and EOT+12: -0.52 m/s, p < 0.001; CI = -0.84--0.19), suggesting liver regeneration after viral eradication and end of inflammation. Baseline SWS correlated positively with histopathological fibrosis scores (r = 0.48; CI = -0.11-0.85). Longitudinal results correlated moderately with APRI (r = 0.41; CI = 0.12-0.64) but not with FIB-4 scores (r = 0.12; CI = -0.19-0.41). Although higher on average, SWE-derived measurements correlated strongly with MRE (r = 0.64). In conclusion, SWE is suitable for non-invasive therapy monitoring in KTRs with HCV infection.

Accurate prediction of HCC risk after SVR in patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis based on longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

Most existing predictive models of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) are built on data collected at baseline and therefore have limited accuracy. The current study aimed to construct an accurate predictive model incorporating longitudinal data using a novel modeling strategy. The predictive performance of the longitudinal model was also compared with a baseline model.

METHODS

A total of 400 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) were enrolled in the study. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Informative features were extracted from the longitudinal variables and then put into the random survival forest (RSF) to develop the longitudinal model. A baseline model including the same variables was built for comparison.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of approximately 5 years, 25 patients (8.9%) in the training set and 11 patients (9.2%) in the validation set developed HCC. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUROC) for the longitudinal model were 0.9507 (0.8838-0.9997), 0.8767 (0.6972,0.9918), and 0.8307 (0.6941,0.9993) for 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction, respectively. The brier scores of the longitudinal model were also relatively low for the 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction (0.0283, 0.0561, and 0.0501, respectively). In contrast, the baseline model only achieved mediocre AUROCs of around 0.6 (0.6113, 0.6213, and 0.6480, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our longitudinal model yielded accurate predictions of HCC risk in patients with HCV-relate cirrhosis, outperforming the baseline model. Our model can provide patients with valuable prognosis information and guide the intensity of surveillance in clinical practice.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: The Prognostic Role of Liver Stiffness Measurement

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which is nowadays the most common etiology of chronic liver disease, is associated with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with or without cirrhosis. Owing to the high prevalence of NAFLD worldwide, it becomes crucial to develop adequate strategies for surveillance of HCC and new prediction models aiming at stratifying NAFLD population for HCC risk. To this purpose, several noninvasive tests (NITs) have been proposed in the several last years, including clinical parameters, serum biomarkers, and imaging techniques. Most of these tools are focused on the assessment of liver fibrosis. Both ultrasound (US) elastography (especially transient elastography) and magnetic resonance (MR) elastography have been evaluated to estimate HCC risk in NAFLD patients. Recently, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) and the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) include these techniques among the recommended NITs for the assessment of liver fibrosis. The aim of this review is to summarize the most recent data on the role of US and MR elastography in HCC risk stratification in patients with NAFLD.

Serum Angiopoietin-2 Predicts the Occurrence and Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C

Progressive liver fibrosis after anti-HCV treatment is a risk factor for HCC. Angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) is associated with non-regression of liver fibrosis after direct-acting antiviral (DAA). This study evaluated the predictive value of serum Ang2 levels for HCC occurrence or recurrence after DAA administration. In this retrospective study, 310 HCV-infected patients treated with DAAs in 2014-2020 were screened and evaluated for HCC occurrence or recurrence every three-six months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age ≥ 75 years (HR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.34-6.33; p = 0.007) and baseline Ang2 level ≥ 464 pg/mL (HR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.18-6.37; p = 0.019) were significantly associated with HCC occurrence after DAA therapy. A high or low risk of HCC after DAA therapy could be distinguished by the combination of age and baseline Ang2 level. The cumulative incidences of de-novo HCC at two and four years were 0.8% and 3.8% in the low-risk group and 22.6% and 27.1% in the high-risk group, respectively. Baseline Ang2 level ≥ 402 pg/mL was significantly associated with HCC recurrence in patients who achieved sustained virological response with DAAs (HR: 3.68). In conclusion, serum Ang2 levels can predict HCC occurrence and recurrence after successful HCV eradication by DAAs.

Outcomes of Interferon-free Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection Seven Years after Approval and Problems with Drop out during and after Treatment: A Retrospective, Single-center Study

Objective This retrospective, single-center study assessed the effects of interferon (IFN)-free treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, which has been approved for seven years; calculated the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR); and elucidated problems with follow-up for surveillance of post-SVR HCC, particularly the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods We summarized the SVR achievement rate of 286 HCV-infected patients who received 301 IFN-free treatments and analyzed the cumulative incidence of initial HCC and the cumulative continuation rate of follow-up after SVR in the 253 patients who achieved SVR and did not have a history of HCC. Results Among 286 patients who received IFN-free treatments, 14 dropped out, and the 272 remaining patients achieved an SVR after receiving up to third-line treatment. Post-SVR HCC occurred in 18 (7.1%) of the 253 patients without a history of HCC, with a cumulative incidence at 3 and 5 years after SVR of 6.6% and 10.0%, respectively; the incidence of cirrhosis at those time points was 18.2% and 24.6%, respectively.Of the 253 patients analyzed, 58 (22.9%) discontinued follow-up after SVR. Patients who had no experience with IFN-based therapy tended to drop out after SVR. Notably, the number of dropouts per month has increased since the start of the pandemic. Conclusion Currently, IFN-free treatment is showing great efficacy. However, the incidence of HCC after SVR should continue to be monitored. In this study, the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect treatment outcomes, but it may affect surveillance for post-SVR HCC.

The Age, Gamma-Glutamyl Transpeptidase and Platelet Index: A Novel Noninvasive Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Liver Cirrhosis

Background and Aims

High incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exists in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), but the predictive accuracy of noninvasive scoring systems (NSSs) is yet to be elucidated. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) in patients with LC, and to establish a new model with more accuracy.

Methods

Data from 94 patients with compensated LC and 134 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC) were collected. The prediction accuracy of NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, was compared.

Results

During a median follow-up of 37.5 months, 9 patients in the compensated LC group and 38 in the DC group developed HCC. For 228 patients, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of APRI, GPR, and FIB-4 was 0.596, 0.625, and 0.654, respectively. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and platelet (PLT) were independent risk factors for HCC development, and a new model encompassing age, GGT, and PLT was superior to NSSs (all P<0.05). With an optimal cutoff value of 0.216, Model (Age_GGT_PLT) achieved 68.09% sensitivity and 69.61% specificity.

Conclusion

NSSs, including APRI, GPR, and FIB-4, has a non-optimal accuracy in predicting HCC development in patients with HBV-related LC. Thus, the new model consisting of age, GGT, and PLT may be more accurate than NSSs.