Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts

A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change

With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.

Temperature-induced effects on development, reproduction, and predation of Harmonia axyridis fed on first instar larvae Spodoptera litura

Since metabolism, survival, and reproduction in hexapods are closely related to temperatures; changes in the mean and variance of temperature are major aspects of global climate change. In the typical context of biological control, understanding how predator-prey systems are impacted under thermal conditions can make pest control more effective and resilient. With this view, this study investigated temperature-mediated development and predation parameters of the predator Harmonia axyridis against the potential prey Spodoptera litura. The age-stage, two-sex life table of the predator was constructed at four temperatures (i.e. 15, 20, 25, and 30°C) by feeding on the first instar larvae of S. litura. Our results showed that the mean generation time (T) decreased but the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and the finite rate of increase (λ) increased with increased temperature. The mean duration of the total preadult stage decreased with higher temperatures. The T and r were 70.47 d and 0.0769 d-1 at 15°C; 58.41 d and 0.0958 d-1 at 20°C; 38.71 d and 0.1526 d-1 at 25°C; and 29.59 d and 0.1822 d-1 at 30°C, respectively. The highest net reproductive rate (R0) and fecundity were obtained at 25°C. The highest λ (1.1998 d-1) and lowest T (29.59 d) were obtained at 30°C, whereas the maximum net predation rate (C0) was at 25°C. Total population and predation rates projections were the highest at 30°C. Based on these findings, we anticipate that biological control strategies for this predator release against S. litura should be attuned to warming scenarios to achieve better biocontrol functions.

Global warming intensifies the interference competition by a poleward-expanding invader on a native dragonfly species

Rapid climate warming has boosted biological invasions and the distribution or expansion polewards of many species: this can cause serious impacts on local ecosystems within the invaded areas. Subsequently, native species may be exposed to threats of both interspecific competition with invaders and temperature rises. However, effects of warming on interspecific interactions, especially competition between invader and native species remains unclear. To better understand the combined threats of biological invasions and warming, the effect of temperature on competitive interactions between two dragonfly species, the expanding Trithemis aurora from Southeast Asia and the Japanese native Orthetrum albistylum speciosum were assessed based on their foraging capacity. Although the stand-alone effect of temperature on foraging intake of the native dragonfly was not apparent, its intake significantly decreased with increasing temperatures when the invader T. aurora was present. Such reductions in foraging might lead to displacement of the native species through competition for food resources. This suggests that impacts of invader species against native species are expected to be more severe when interspecific competition is exacerbated by temperature rises.

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three earth snakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther 1858) in central Mexico

Anthropogenic land use and climate change are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for many globally endangered reptile species. Earth snakes (Conopsis spp.) are a poorly studied group endemic to Mexico. They have limited dispersal abilities and specialized niches, making them particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to assess how future climate and land-cover change scenarios might influence the distribution and habitat connectivity of three earth snakes: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith), C. lineata (Kennicott), and C. nasus (Günther). Two climate models, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP) (Representative Concentration Pathway 85), were explored with ENMeval Maxent modelling. Important SDM environmental variables and environmental niche overlap between species were also examined. We found that C. biserialis and C. lineata were restricted by maximum temperatures whereas C. nasus was restricted by minimum ones and was more tolerant to arid vegetation. C. biserialis and C. lineata were primarily distributed in the valleys and mountains of the highlands of the TMBV, while C. nasus was mainly distributed in the Altiplano Sur (Zacatecano-Potosino). C. lineata had the smallest potential distribution and suffered the greatest contraction in the future whereas C. nasus was the least affected species in future scenarios. The Sierra de las Cruces and the Sierra Chichinautzin were identified as very important areas for connectivity. Our results suggest that C. lineata may be the most vulnerable of the three species to anthropogenic and climate changes whereas C. nasus seems to be less affected by global warming than the other species.

Climatic envelopes of the genus Lacerta Linnaeus, 1758 in Türkiye: an application of ecological niche modeling

Six species belonging to the genus Lacerta live in Türkiye. In this study, both present and future potential distribution maps were created based on occurrence data and climatic variables for these six species. Two scenarios for future projections (shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs,: 245 and 585) and two timeframes (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) were used. The present and future potential distributions of these species were compared. As a result, it was predicted that the distribution ranges in the six species will expand in the future, and this expansion has revealed new environments.