Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of death within 1 year in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy: a retrospective cohort study

Development of a nomogram to predict the risk of secondary failure of platelet recovery in patients with β-thalassemia major after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a retrospective study

Background

Secondary failure of platelet recovery (SFPR) is a common complication that influences survival and quality of life of patients with β-thalassemia major (β-TM) after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT).

Objectives

A model to predict the risk of SFPR in β-TM patients after HSCT was developed.

Design

A retrospective study was used to develop the prediction model.

Methods

The clinical data for 218 β-TM patients who received HSCT comprised the training set, and those for another 89 patients represented the validation set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression algorithm was used to identify the critical clinical factors with nonzero coefficients for constructing the nomogram. Calibration curve, C-index, and receiver operating characteristic curve assessments and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the calibration, discrimination, accuracy, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Internal and external validation were used to test and verify the predictive model.

Results

The nomogram based on pretransplant serum ferritin, hepatomegaly, mycophenolate mofetil use, and posttransplant serum albumin could be conveniently used to predict the SFPR risk of thalassemia patients after HSCT. The calibration curve of the nomogram revealed good concordance between the training and validation sets. The nomogram showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.780 (95% CI: 70.3-85.7) and 0.868 (95% CI: 78.5-95.1) and AUCs of 0.780 and 0.868 in the training and validation sets, respectively. A high C-index value of 0.766 was reached in the interval validation assessment. DCA confirmed that the nomogram was clinically useful when intervention was decided at the possibility threshold ranging from 3% to 83%.

Conclusion

We constructed a nomogram model to predict the risk of SFPR in patients with β-TM after HSCT. The nomogram has a good predictive ability and may be used by clinicians to identify SFPR patients early and recommend effective preventive measures.

Characterization of Non-Ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy in a Native Tanzanian Cohort: MOYO Study

Background

Non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) is a common cause of heart failure with progressive tendency. The disease occurs in one in every 2,500 individuals in the developed world, with high morbidity and mortality. However, detailed data on the role of NIDCM in heart failure in Tanzania is lacking.

Aim

To characterize NIDCM in a Tanzanian cohort with respect to demographics, clinical profile, imaging findings and management.

Methods

Characterization of non-ischemic dilated cardioMyOpathY in a native Tanzanian cOhort (MOYO) is a prospective cohort study of NIDCM patients seen at the Jakaya Kikwete Cardiac Institute. Patients aged ≥18 years with a clinical diagnosis of heart failure, an ejection fraction of ≤45% on echocardiography and no evidence of ischemia were enrolled. Clinical data, echocardiography, electrocardiography (ECG), coronary angiography and stress ECG information were collected from February 2020 to March 2022.

Results

Of 402 patients, n = 220 (54.7%) were males with a median (IQR) age of 55.0 (41.0, 66.0) years. Causes of NIDCM were presumably hypertensive n = 218 (54.2%), idiopathic n = 116 (28.9%), PPCM n = 45 (11.2%), alcoholic n = 10 (2.5%) and other causes n = 13 (3.2%). The most common presenting symptoms were dyspnea n = 342 (85.1%), with the majority of patients presenting with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III n = 195 (48.5%). The mean (SD) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 29.4% (±7.7), and severe systolic dysfunction (LVEF <30%) was common n = 208 (51.7%). Compared with other forms of DCM, idiopathic DCM patients were significantly younger, had more advanced NYHA class (p < 0.001) and presented more often with left bundle branch block on ECG (p = 0.0042). There was suboptimal use of novel guidelines recommended medications ARNI n = 10 (2.5%) and SGLT2 2-inhibitors n = 2 (0.5%).

Conclusions

In our Tanzanian cohort, the majority of patients with NIDCM have an identified underlying cause, and they present at late stages of the disease. Patients with idiopathic DCM are younger with more severe disease compared to other forms of NIDCM.

Exploring the diagnostic and prognostic value of the C-reactive protein/lymphocyte ratio for dilated cardiomyopathy based on a real-world study

To determine the risk factors for dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and construct a risk model for predicting HF in patients with DCM, We enrolled a total of 2122 patients, excluding those who did not meet the requirements. A total of 913 patients were included in the analysis (611 males and 302 females) from October 2012 to May 2020, and data on demographic characteristics, blood biochemical markers, and cardiac ultrasound results were collected. Patients were strictly screened for DCM based on the diagnostic criteria. First, these patients were evaluated using propensity score matching (PSM). Next, unconditional logistic regression was used to assess HF risk. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to determine diagnostic efficiency, and a nomogram was developed to predict HF. Finally, the Kaplan‒Meier survival curve was plotted. Of the initial 2122 patients, the ejection fraction (EF) in males was worse. We included 913 patients after the final DCM diagnosis. The results showed that the levels of NT-proBNP, WBC, PLT, neutrophils, lymphocytes, eosinophils, and IL-6, C-reactive protein (CRP) and the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and CRP/lymphocyte ratio (CLR) were higher in males than in females (P < 0.001-0.009). The nomogram showed that factors such as sex, WBC, neutrophils, PLR, and CLR could predict the risk of worsening cardiac function in patients with DCM before and after PSM (P < 0.05). The ROC curve showed that CLR with an 85.6% area demonstrated higher diagnostic efficacy than the NLR (77.0%) and PLR (76.6%, P < 0.05). Survival analysis showed a higher mortality risk in females with higher CLR levels (P < 0.001-0.009). However, high CLR levels indicated a higher mortality risk (P < 0.001) compared to sex. Male EF is lower in DCM patients. CLR could predict the risk of declined cardiac function in patients with DCM. The mortality in females with higher CLR levels was highest; however, the exact mechanism should be investigated.

Potential Prognostic Relevance of Left-Ventricular Global Longitudinal Strain and of the Summation of the Mitral and Tricuspid Regurgitation Volume in Patients with Non-Ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

The aim of this pilot study was to determine the potential prognostic relevance of novel multidirectional myocardial and volumetric echocardiographic parameters in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM).

METHODS

Multidirectional myocardial parameters (longitudinal, radial, and circumferential left-ventricular (LV) strain using speckle tracking echocardiography) and a new volumetric parameter (the sum of the mitral and tricuspid regurgitation volume (mitral-tricuspid regurgitation volume) were assessed. The cardiovascular (CV) outcome was a composite of cardiac death and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) at 1 year.

RESULTS

Approximately 102 patients were included in this pilot study. The mean LV ejection fraction (LVEF) was 28.4 ± 8.9%. During a follow-up of 1 year, the CV outcome occurred in 39 patients (10 HF deaths, and 36 hospitalizations for HF). The LV global longitudinal systolic strain (GLS) and mitral-tricuspid regurgitation volume were the main parameters that were seen to be significantly altered in the comparison of patients with events vs. those without events (GLS (absolute values) 7.4 ± 2.7% vs. 10.3 ± 2.6%; mitral-tricuspid regurgitation volume 61.1 ± 20.4 mL vs. 40.9 ± 22.9 mL, respectively; p-value < 0.01). In line with these findings, in a multivariate continuous logistic regression analysis, the GLS and mitral-tricuspid regurgitation volume were the main parameters associated with worse CV outcomes (GLS: OR 0.77 (95%CI 0.65-0.92); mitral-tricuspid regurgitation volume OR 1.09 (95%CI 1.01-1.25)), whereas the radial and circumferential LV global strain and mitral regurgitation volume and tricuspid regurgitation volume were not linked to the CV outcome. Furthermore, in a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a GLS cutoff of <7.5% and mitral-tricuspid regurgitation volume > 60 mL were the identified values for the parameters associated with worse CV outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this pilot study suggest that the GLS and a novel volumetric parameter (the sum of the mitral and tricuspid regurgitation volume) are linked to worse CV outcomes in patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy. Hence, these promising results warrant further validation in larger studies.