Spatial heterogeneity of air pollution statistics in Europe

Analyzing spatio-temporal dynamics of dissolved oxygen for the River Thames using superstatistical methods and machine learning

By employing superstatistical methods and machine learning, we analyze time series data of water quality indicators for the River Thames (UK). The indicators analyzed include dissolved oxygen, temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, ammonium, turbidity, and rainfall, with a specific focus on the dynamics of dissolved oxygen. After detrending, the probability density functions of dissolved oxygen fluctuations exhibit heavy tails that are effectively modeled using q-Gaussian distributions. Our findings indicate that the multiplicative Empirical Mode Decomposition method stands out as the most effective detrending technique, yielding the highest log-likelihood in nearly all fittings. We also observe that the optimally fitted width parameter of the q-Gaussian shows a negative correlation with the distance to the sea, highlighting the influence of geographical factors on water quality dynamics. In the context of same-time prediction of dissolved oxygen, regression analysis incorporating various water quality indicators and temporal features identify the Light Gradient Boosting Machine as the best model. SHapley Additive exPlanations reveal that temperature, pH, and time of year play crucial roles in the predictions. Furthermore, we use the Transformer, a state-of-the-art machine learning model, to forecast dissolved oxygen concentrations. For long-term forecasting, the Informer model consistently delivers superior performance, achieving the lowest Mean Absolute Error (0.15) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (21.96%) with the 192 historical time steps that we used. This performance is attributed to the Informer's ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which allows it to capture long-range dependencies in time-series data more effectively than other machine learning models. It effectively recognizes the half-life cycle of dissolved oxygen, with particular attention to critical periods such as morning to early afternoon, late evening to early morning, and key intervals between the 16th and 26th quarter-hours of the previous half-day. Our findings provide valuable insights for policymakers involved in ecological health assessments, aiding in accurate predictions of river water quality and the maintenance of healthy aquatic ecosystems.

Non-additive entropies and statistical mechanics at the edge of chaos: a bridge between natural and social sciences

The Boltzmann-Gibbs (BG) statistical mechanics constitutes one of the pillars of contemporary theoretical physics. It is constructed upon the other pillars-classical, quantum, relativistic mechanics and Maxwell equations for electromagnetism-and its foundations are grounded on the optimization of the BG (additive) entropic functional [Formula: see text]. Its use in the realm of classical mechanics is legitimate for vast classes of nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the maximal Lyapunov exponent is positive (currently referred to as strong chaos), and its validity has been experimentally verified in countless situations. It fails however when the maximal Lyapunov exponent vanishes (referred to as weak chaos), which is virtually always the case with complex natural, artificial and social systems. To overcome this type of weakness of the BG theory, a generalization was proposed in 1988 grounded on the non-additive entropic functional [Formula: see text]. The index [Formula: see text] and related ones are to be calculated, whenever mathematically tractable, from first principles and reflect the specific class of weak chaos. We review here the basics of this generalization and illustrate its validity with selected examples aiming to bridge natural and social sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Thermodynamics 2.0: Bridging the natural and social sciences (Part 2)'.