Deep learning methods to predict amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression

The Role of Ferroptosis in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Treatment

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare neurodegenerative disease with a challenging treatment landscape, due to its complex pathogenesis and limited availability of clinical drugs. Ferroptosis, an iron-dependent form of programmed cell death (PCD), stands distinct from apoptosis, necrosis, autophagy, and other cell death mechanisms. Recent studies have increasingly highlighted the role of iron deposition, reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulation, oxidative stress, as well as systemic Xc- and glutamate accumulation in the antioxidant system in the pathogenesis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Therefore, targeting ferroptosis emerges as a promising strategy for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis treatment. This review introduces the regulatory mechanism of ferroptosis, the relationship between amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and ferroptosis, and the drugs used in the clinic, then discusses the current status of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis treatment, hoping to provide new directions and targets for its treatment.

Predicting amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progression with machine learning

OBJECTIVE

To predict ALS progression with varying observation and prediction window lengths, using machine learning (ML).

METHODS

We used demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters from 5030 patients in the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database to model ALS disease progression as fast (at least 1.5 points decline in ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) per month) or non-fast, using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian Long Short Term Memory (BLSTM). XGBoost identified predictors of progression while BLSTM provided a confidence level for each prediction.

RESULTS

ML models achieved area under receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.570-0.748 and were non-inferior to clinician assessments. Performance was similar with observation lengths of a single visit, 3, 6, or 12 months and on a holdout validation dataset, but was better for longer prediction lengths. 21 important predictors were identified, with the top 3 being days since disease onset, past ALSFRS-R and forced vital capacity. Nonstandard predictors included phosphorus, chloride and albumin. BLSTM demonstrated higher performance for the samples about which it was most confident. Patient screening by models may reduce hypothetical Phase II/III clinical trial sizes by 18.3%.

CONCLUSION

Similar accuracies across ML models using different observation lengths suggest that a clinical trial observation period could be shortened to a single visit and clinical trial sizes reduced. Confidence levels provided by BLSTM gave additional information on the trustworthiness of predictions, which could aid decision-making. The identified predictors of ALS progression are potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets for further research.

Improving prediction models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using polygenic, pre-existing conditions, and survey-based risk scores in the UK Biobank

Background and Objectives

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) causes profound impairments in neurological function and a cure for this devastating disease remains elusive. Early detection and risk stratification are crucial for timely intervention and improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to identify predisposing genetic, phenotypic, and exposure-related factors for Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using multi-modal data and assess their joint predictive potential.

Methods

Utilizing data from the UK Biobank, we analyzed an unrelated set of 292 ALS cases and 408,831 controls of European descent. Two polygenic risk scores (PRS) are constructed: "GWAS Hits PRS" and "PRS-CS," reflecting oligogenic and polygenic ALS risk profiles, respectively. Time-restricted phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) were performed to identify pre-existing conditions increasing ALS risk, integrated into phenotypic risk scores (PheRS). A poly-exposure score ("PXS") captures the influence of environmental exposures measured through survey questionnaires. We evaluate the performance of these scores for predicting ALS incidence and stratifying risk, adjusting for baseline demographic covariates.

Results

Both PRSs modestly predicted ALS diagnosis, but with increased predictive power when combined (covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic [AAUC] = 0.584 [0.525, 0.639]). PheRS incorporated diagnoses 1 year before ALS onset (PheRS1) modestly discriminated cases from controls (AAUC = 0.515 [0.472, 0.564]). The "PXS" did not significantly predict ALS. However, a model incorporating PRSs and PheRS1 improved prediction of ALS (AAUC = 0.604 [0.547, 0.667]), outperforming a model combining all risk scores. This combined risk score identified the top 10% of risk score distribution with a 4-fold higher ALS risk (95% CI: [2.04, 7.73]) versus those in the 40%-60% range.

Discussions

By leveraging UK Biobank data, our study uncovers predisposing ALS factors, highlighting the improved effectiveness of multi-factorial prediction models to identify individuals at highest risk for ALS.

Towards a Machine Learning Empowered Prognostic Model for Predicting Disease Progression for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare and devastating neurodegenerative disorder that is highly heterogeneous and invariably fatal. Due to the unpredictable nature of its progression, accurate tools and algorithms are needed to predict disease progression and improve patient care. To address this need, we developed and compared an extensive set of screener-learner machine learning models to accurately predict the ALS Function-Rating-Scale (ALSFRS) score reduction between 3 and 12 months, by paring 5 state-of-arts feature selection algorithms with 17 predictive models and 4 ensemble models using the publicly available Pooled Open Access Clinical Trials Database (PRO-ACT). Our experiment showed promising results with the blender-type ensemble model achieving the best prediction accuracy and highest prognostic potential.

Artificial intelligence for biomarker discovery in Alzheimer's disease and dementia

With the increase in large multimodal cohorts and high-throughput technologies, the potential for discovering novel biomarkers is no longer limited by data set size. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning approaches have been developed to detect novel biomarkers and interactions in complex data sets. We discuss exemplar uses and evaluate current applications and limitations of AI to discover novel biomarkers. Remaining challenges include a lack of diversity in the data sets available, the sheer complexity of investigating interactions, the invasiveness and cost of some biomarkers, and poor reporting in some studies. Overcoming these challenges will involve collecting data from underrepresented populations, developing more powerful AI approaches, validating the use of noninvasive biomarkers, and adhering to reporting guidelines. By harnessing rich multimodal data through AI approaches and international collaborative innovation, we are well positioned to identify clinically useful biomarkers that are accurate, generalizable, unbiased, and acceptable in clinical practice. HIGHLIGHTS: Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches may accelerate dementia biomarker discovery. Remaining challenges include data set suitability due to size and bias in cohort selection. Multimodal data, diverse data sets, improved machine learning approaches, real-world validation, and interdisciplinary collaboration are required.

Dynamic effects of prognostic factors and individual survival prediction for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease

OBJECTIVE

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease affecting motor neurons, with broad heterogeneity in disease progression and survival in different patients. Therefore, an accurate prediction model will be crucial to implement timely interventions and prolong patient survival time.

METHODS

A total of 1260 ALS patients from the PRO-ACT database were included in the analysis. Their demographics, clinical variables, and death reports were included. We constructed an ALS dynamic Cox model through the landmarking approach. The predictive performance of the model at different landmark time points was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and Brier score.

RESULTS

Three baseline covariates and seven time-dependent covariates were selected to construct the ALS dynamic Cox model. For better prognostic analysis, this model identified dynamic effects of treatment, albumin, creatinine, calcium, hematocrit, and hemoglobin. Its prediction performance (at all landmark time points, AUC ≥ 0.70 and Brier score ≤ 0.12) was better than that of the traditional Cox model, and it predicted the dynamic 6-month survival probability according to the longitudinal information of individual patients.

INTERPRETATION

We developed an ALS dynamic Cox model with ALS longitudinal clinical trial datasets as the inputs. This model can not only capture the dynamic prognostic effect of both baseline and longitudinal covariates but also make individual survival predictions in real time, which are valuable for improving the prognosis of ALS patients and providing a reference for clinicians to make clinical decisions.

Harnessing deep learning into hidden mutations of neurological disorders for therapeutic challenges

The relevant study of transcriptome-wide variations and neurological disorders in the evolved field of genomic data science is on the rise. Deep learning has been highlighted utilizing algorithms on massive amounts of data in a human-like manner, and is expected to predict the dependency or druggability of hidden mutations within the genome. Enormous mutational variants in coding and noncoding transcripts have been discovered along the genome by far, despite of the fine-tuned genetic proofreading machinery. These variants could be capable of inducing various pathological conditions, including neurological disorders, which require lifelong care. Several limitations and questions emerge, including the use of conventional processes via limited patient-driven sequence acquisitions and decoding-based inferences as well as how rare variants can be deduced as a population-specific etiology. These puzzles require harnessing of advanced systems for precise disease prediction, drug development and drug applications. In this review, we summarize the pathophysiological discoveries of pathogenic variants in both coding and noncoding transcripts in neurological disorders, and the current advantage of deep learning applications. In addition, we discuss the challenges encountered and how to outperform them with advancing interpretation.

Implications of Artificial Intelligence Algorithms in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Motor Neuron Diseases-A Review

Motor neuron diseases (MNDs) are a group of chronic neurological disorders characterized by the progressive failure of the motor system. Currently, these disorders do not have a definitive treatment; therefore, it is of huge importance to propose new and more advanced diagnoses and treatment options for MNDs. Nowadays, artificial intelligence is being applied to solve several real-life problems in different areas, including healthcare. It has shown great potential to accelerate the understanding and management of many health disorders, including neurological ones. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to offer a review of the most important research that has been done on the application of artificial intelligence models for analyzing motor disorders. This review includes a general description of the most commonly used AI algorithms and their usage in MND diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. Finally, we highlight the main issues that must be overcome to take full advantage of what AI can offer us when dealing with MNDs.

Triclustering-based classification of longitudinal data for prognostic prediction: targeting relevant clinical endpoints in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

This work proposes a new class of explainable prognostic models for longitudinal data classification using triclusters. A new temporally constrained triclustering algorithm, termed TCtriCluster, is proposed to comprehensively find informative temporal patterns common to a subset of patients in a subset of features (triclusters), and use them as discriminative features within a state-of-the-art classifier with guarantees of interpretability. The proposed approach further enhances prediction with the potentialities of model explainability by revealing clinically relevant disease progression patterns underlying prognostics, describing features used for classification. The proposed methodology is used in the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Portuguese cohort (N = 1321), providing the first comprehensive assessment of the prognostic limits of five notable clinical endpoints: need for non-invasive ventilation (NIV); need for an auxiliary communication device; need for percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG); need for a caregiver; and need for a wheelchair. Triclustering-based predictors outperform state-of-the-art alternatives, being able to predict the need for auxiliary communication device (within 180 days) and the need for PEG (within 90 days) with an AUC above 90%. The approach was validated in clinical practice, supporting healthcare professionals in understanding the link between the highly heterogeneous patterns of ALS disease progression and the prognosis.

Current State and Future Directions in the Diagnosis of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease characterized by loss of upper and lower motor neurons, resulting in progressive weakness of all voluntary muscles and eventual respiratory failure. Non-motor symptoms, such as cognitive and behavioral changes, frequently occur over the course of the disease. Considering its poor prognosis with a median survival time of 2 to 4 years and limited causal treatment options, an early diagnosis of ALS plays an essential role. In the past, diagnosis has primarily been determined by clinical findings supported by electrophysiological and laboratory measurements. To increase diagnostic accuracy, reduce diagnostic delay, optimize stratification in clinical trials and provide quantitative monitoring of disease progression and treatment responsivity, research on disease-specific and feasible fluid biomarkers, such as neurofilaments, has been intensely pursued. Advances in imaging techniques have additionally yielded diagnostic benefits. Growing perception and greater availability of genetic testing facilitate early identification of pathogenic ALS-related gene mutations, predictive testing and access to novel therapeutic agents in clinical trials addressing disease-modified therapies before the advent of the first clinical symptoms. Lately, personalized survival prediction models have been proposed to offer a more detailed disclosure of the prognosis for the patient. In this review, the established procedures and future directions in the diagnostics of ALS are summarized to serve as a practical guideline and to improve the diagnostic pathway of this burdensome disease.