Machine learning for post-acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus prediction and personalized treatment recommendations

Risk and factors determining diabetes after mild, nonnecrotizing acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is relatively common following acute pancreatitis (AP), even after mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), the most frequent AP presentation, in which there is no overt beta cell injury. Post-AP related diabetes is widely misdiagnosed, resulting in potentially inappropriate treatment and worse outcomes than type 2 diabetes (T2D). Thus, it is important to understand risk across the spectrum of AP severity.

RECENT FINDINGS

Biological mechanisms are unclear and may include local and systemic inflammation leading to beta cell dysfunction and insulin resistance, altered gut barrier and/or gut peptides and possibly islet autoimmunity, though no studies have specifically focused on MAP. While studies examining clinical risk factors on MAP exclusively are lacking, there are studies which include MAP. These studies vary in scientific rigor, approaches to rule out preexisting diabetes, variable AP severity, diagnostic testing methods, and duration of follow-up. Overall, disease related factors, including AP severity, as well as established T2D risk factors are reported to contribute to the risk for DM following AP.

SUMMARY

Though numerous studies have explored risk factors for DM after AP, few studies specifically focused on MAP, highlighting a key knowledge gap that is relevant to the majority of patients with AP.

Radiological and Biochemical Parameters in Assessing Acute Pancreatitis Severity: A Comprehensive Review

Acute pancreatitis is a dynamic inflammatory condition of the pancreas with a spectrum ranging from mild to severe. Early and accurate assessment of disease severity is crucial for guiding clinical management and improving patient outcomes. This comprehensive review explores the role of radiological and biochemical parameters in assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis. Radiological imaging modalities, including computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and ultrasound (US), play a pivotal role in identifying key features, such as pancreatic necrosis and peripancreatic fluid collections, indicative of severe disease. Additionally, serum markers such as amylase, lipase, and C-reactive protein (CRP) provide valuable prognostic information and aid in risk stratification. Integrating radiological and biochemical parameters allows for a multidimensional evaluation of disease severity, enabling clinicians to make informed decisions regarding patient management. Early identification of severe cases facilitates timely interventions, including intensive care monitoring, nutritional support, and potential surgical interventions. Despite significant advancements in the field, there remain areas for further research, including the validation of emerging imaging techniques and biomarkers and the exploration of personalized management approaches. Addressing these research gaps can enhance our understanding of acute pancreatitis and ultimately improve patient care and outcomes.

Risk factors for diabetes mellitus after acute pancreatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Within 5 years of having acute pancreatitis (AP), approximately 20% of patients develop diabetes mellitus (DM), which later increases to approximately 40%. Some studies suggest that the prevalence of prediabetes (PD) and/or DM can grow as high as 59% over time. However, information on risk factors is limited. We aimed to identify risk factors for developing PD or DM following AP.

Methods

We systematically searched three databases up to 4 September 2023 extracting direct, within-study comparisons of risk factors on the rate of new-onset PD and DM in AP patients. When PD and DM event rates could not be separated, we reported results for this composite outcome as PD/DM. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of the 61 studies identified, 50 were included in the meta-analysis, covering 76,797 participants. The studies reported on 79 risk factors, and meta-analysis was feasible for 34 risk factor and outcome pairs. The odds of developing PD/DM was significantly higher after severe and moderately severe AP (OR: 4.32; CI: 1.76-10.60) than mild AP. Hypertriglyceridemic AP etiology (OR: 3.27; CI: 0.17-63.91) and pancreatic necrosis (OR: 5.53; CI: 1.59-19.21) were associated with a higher risk of developing PD/DM. Alcoholic AP etiology (OR: 1.82; CI: 1.09-3.04), organ failure (OR: 3.19; CI: 0.55-18.64), recurrent AP (OR: 1.89; CI: 0.95-3.77), obesity (OR: 1.85; CI: 1.43-2.38), chronic kidney disease (OR: 2.10; CI: 1.85-2.38), liver cirrhosis (OR: 2.48; CI: 0.18-34.25), and dyslipidemia (OR: 1.82; CI: 0.68-4.84) were associated with a higher risk of developing DM.

Discussion

Severe and moderately severe AP, alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemic etiologies, pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, recurrent acute pancreatitis and comorbidities of obesity, chronic kidney disease liver disease, and dyslipidemia are associated with a higher risk of developing PD or DM.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42021281983.

Metabolic Sequelae: The Pancreatitis Zeitgeist of the 21st Century

Holistic management of pancreatitis means that gastroenterologists in the 21st Century should think beyond improving in-hospital outcomes of pancreatitis alone. In particular, there is considerable room for optimizing the management of new-onset diabetes, exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, and other metabolic sequelae of pancreatitis. The present article provides state-of-the-art information on classification, terminology, and burden of the common sequelae of pancreatitis. A high-risk group of patients with pancreatitis is identified, which is positioned to benefit the most from the metabolic sequelae surveillance program introduced in this article. The program involves continuous follow-up after pancreatitis diagnosis, with the focus on early identification of new-onset diabetes after pancreatitis and exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. The metabolic sequelae surveillance program is scalable and has the potential to reduce the burden of pancreatitis through tertiary prevention in the decades to come.

Diabetes of the Exocrine Pancreas: Implications for Pharmacological Management

Post-pancreatitis diabetes mellitus, pancreatic cancer-related diabetes, and cystic fibrosis-related diabetes are often underappreciated. As a result, a substantial proportion of people with these sub-types of diabetes receive antidiabetic medications that may be suboptimal, if not harmful, in the context of their underlying disease of the exocrine pancreas. The present article delineates both classical (biguanides, insulin, sulfonylureas, α-glucosidase inhibitors, thiazolidinediones, and meglitinides) and newer (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, amylin analogs, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, D2 receptor agonists, bile acid sequestrants, and dual glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor co-agonists) therapies and provides recommendations for managing people with diabetes of the exocrine pancreas based on the most up-to-date clinical evidence. Also, several emerging directions (lipid-enriched pathways, Y4 receptor agonism, glucagon-like peptide-1 and glucagon receptor co-agonism) are presented with a view to informing the process of new drug discovery and development.