Prediction model and demonstration of regional agricultural carbon emissions based on Isomap-ACO-ET: a case study of Guangdong Province, China

Aging Increases Global Annual Food Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 300 Million Tonnes by 2100

The dietary preferences of the elderly population exhibit distinct variations from the overall averages in most countries, gaining increasing significance due to aging demographics worldwide. These dietary preferences play a crucial role in shaping global food systems, which will result in changed environmental impacts in the future such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We present a quantitative evaluation of the influence of population aging on the changes in GHG emissions from global food systems. To achieve this, we developed regional dietary coefficients (DCs) of the elderly based on the Global Dietary Database (GDD). We then reconciled the GDD with the dataset from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to calculate the food GHG emissions of the average population in each of the countries. By applying the DCs, we estimated the national food GHG emissions and obtained the variations between the emissions from aged and average populations. We employed a modified version of the regional integrated model of climate and the economy model (RICE) to forecast the emission trends in different countries based on FAO and GDD data. This integrated approach allowed us to evaluate the dynamic relationships among aging demographics, food consumption patterns, and economic developments within regions. Our results indicate that the annual aging-embodied global food GHG emissions will reach 288 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) by 2100. This estimation is crucial for policymakers, entrepreneurs, and researchers as it provides insights into a potential future environmental challenge and emphasizes the importance of sustainable food production and consumption strategies to GHG emission mitigations associated with aging dietary patterns.

Environmental regulation, land use efficiency and industrial structure upgrading: Test analysis based on spatial durbin model and threshold effect

Environmental regulation promotes industrial structure change and regional economic transformation through land use adjustment, which gets a new way to explore the path of reforming traditional industrialization and urbanization. Based on the panel data of 128 prefecture-level cities in China 's Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020, this paper uses the spatial Dubin model to analyze the impact of environmental regulation and land use efficiency on the upgrading of industrial structure, and sets the panel threshold model to examine the impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure by affecting land use efficiency. The results show that formal environmental regulation has a significant positive spatial effect on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, which are 0.1734 and 0.2854 respectively. Informal environmental regulation has a negative spillover effect on neighboring provinces but not significant. Heterogeneous environmental regulation has obvious "double threshold effect" on industrial upgrading by affecting land use efficiency. When the threshold of environmental regulation intensity is 0.0315-0.0886, environmental regulation still inhibits land use efficiency and industrial structure upgrading. When the threshold value is greater than 0.0886, environmental regulation has a positive impact on land use efficiency but not significant. With the intensity of environmental regulation from weak to strong, it will produce a double threshold effect of "strong inhibition-weak inhibition-interaction promotion" on the upgrading of manufacturing structure through the adjustment of land use efficiency.