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Sarkar SK, Rudra RR, Talukdar S, Das PC, Nur MS, Alam E, Islam MK, Islam ARMT. Future groundwater potential mapping using machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios in Bangladesh. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10328. [PMID: 38710767 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60560-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
The aim of the study was to estimate future groundwater potential zones based on machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios. Fourteen parameters (i.e., curvature, drainage density, slope, roughness, rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, lineament density, land use and land cover, general soil types, geology, geomorphology, topographic position index (TPI), topographic wetness index (TWI)) were used in developing machine learning algorithms. Three machine learning algorithms (i.e., artificial neural network (ANN), logistic model tree (LMT), and logistic regression (LR)) were applied to identify groundwater potential zones. The best-fit model was selected based on the ROC curve. Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 2.5, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 climate scenarios of precipitation were used for modeling future climate change. Finally, future groundwater potential zones were identified for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 based on the best machine learning model and future RCP models. According to findings, ANN shows better accuracy than the other two models (AUC: 0.875). The ANN model predicted that 23.10 percent of the land was in very high groundwater potential zones, whereas 33.50 percent was in extremely high groundwater potential zones. The study forecasts precipitation values under different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 using an ANN model and shows spatial distribution maps for each scenario. Finally, sixteen scenarios were generated for future groundwater potential zones. Government officials may utilize the study's results to inform evidence-based choices on water management and planning at the national level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Showmitra Kumar Sarkar
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna, 9203, Bangladesh.
| | - Rhyme Rubayet Rudra
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna, 9203, Bangladesh
| | - Swapan Talukdar
- Department of Geography, Asutosh College, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, 700026, India
| | - Palash Chandra Das
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna, 9203, Bangladesh
- Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA
| | - Md Sadmin Nur
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna, 9203, Bangladesh
| | - Edris Alam
- Faculty of Resilience, Rabdan Academy, 22401, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, 4331, Bangladesh
| | - Md Kamrul Islam
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, King Faisal University, AlAhsa, 31982, Saudi Arabia
| | - Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam
- Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh
- Department of Development Studies, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, 1216, Bangladesh
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Sarkar SK, Rudra RR, Santo MMH. Cyclone vulnerability assessment in the coastal districts of Bangladesh. Heliyon 2024; 10:e23555. [PMID: 38192777 PMCID: PMC10772640 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e23555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Revised: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2024] Open
Abstract
This research aims to assess the vulnerability to cyclones in the coastal regions of Bangladesh, employing a comprehensive framework derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). The study considers a total of eighteen factors, categorized into three critical dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These factors are crucial in understanding the potential impact of cyclones in the region. In order to develop a cyclone vulnerability map, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied, primarily focusing on the dimensions of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The findings of this analysis revealed that sensitivity and adaptive capacity components accounted for a significant percentage of variance in the data, explaining 90.00 % and 90.93 % of the variance, respectively. Despite the lack of details about data collection, the study identified specific factors contributing significantly to each dimension. Notably, proximity to the coastline emerged as a highly influential factor in determining cyclone exposure. The results of this research indicate that certain areas, such as Jessore, Khulna, Narail, Gopalgonj, and Bagerhat, exhibit low exposure to cyclones, whereas regions like Chandpur and Lakshmipur face a high level of exposure. Sensitivity was found to be high in most areas, with Noakhali, Lakshmipur, and Chandpur being the most sensitive regions. Adaptive capacity was observed to vary significantly, with low values near the sea, particularly in locations like Cox's Bazar, Shatkhira, Bagerhat, Noakhali, and Bhola, and high values in regions farther from the coast. Overall, vulnerability to cyclones was found to be very high in Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Chandpur, and Bhola, low in Jessore and Khulna, and moderate in Barisal, Narail, Gopalgonj, and Jhalokati. These findings are expected to provide valuable insights to inform decision-makers and authorities tasked with managing the consequences of cyclones in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Showmitra Kumar Sarkar
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh
| | - Rhyme Rubayet Rudra
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Mehedi Hasan Santo
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh
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