Gohari K, Saberi S, Esmaieli M, Tashakoripour M, Hosseini ME, Nahvijou A, Mohagheghi MA, Kazemnejad A, Mohammadi M. Development of a gastric cancer risk calculator for questionnaire-based surveillance of Iranian dyspeptic patients.
BMC Gastroenterol 2024;
24:39. [PMID:
38238682 PMCID:
PMC10797901 DOI:
10.1186/s12876-024-03123-z]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Gastric cancer (GC) is considered a silent killer, taking more than three quarters of a million lives annually. Therefore, prior to further costly and invasive diagnostic approaches, an initial GC risk screening is desperately in demand.
METHODS
In order to develop a simple risk scoring system, the demographic and lifestyle indices from 858 GC and 1132 non-ulcer dyspeptic (NUD) patients were analysed. We applied a multivariate logistic regression approach to identify the association between our target predictors and GC versus NUD. The model performance in classification was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Our questionnaire covering 64 predictors, included known risk factors, such as demographic features, dietary habits, self-reported medical status, narcotics use, and SES indicators.
RESULTS
Our model segregated GC from NUD patients with the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy rates of 85.89, 63.9, and 73.03%, respectively, which was confirmed in the development dataset (AUC equal to 86.37%, P < 0.0001). Predictors which contributed most to our GC risk calculator, based on risk scores (RS) and shared percentages (SP), included: 1) older age group [> 70 (RS:+ 241, SP:7.23), 60-70 (RS:+ 221, SP:6.60), 50-60 (RS:+ 134, SP:4.02), 2) history of gastrointestinal cancers (RS:+ 173, SP:5.19), 3) male gender (RS:+ 119, SP:3.55), 4) non-Fars ethnicity (RS:+ 89, SP:2.66), 5) illiteracy of both parents (RS:+ 78, SP:2.38), 6) rural residence (RS:+ 77, SP:2.3), and modifiable dietary behaviors (RS:+ 32 to + 53, SP:0.96 to 1.58).
CONCLUSION
Our developed risk calculator provides a primary screening step, prior to the subsequent costly and invasive measures. Furthermore, public awareness regarding modifiable risk predictors may encourage and promote lifestyle adjustments and healthy behaviours.
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