Effects of climatic and environmental factors on mosquito population inferred from West Nile virus surveillance in Greece

Unveiling spatial patterns of West Nile virus emergence in northern Greece, 2010-2023

The Region of Central Macedonia (RCM) in Northern Greece recorded the highest number of human West Nile virus (WNV) infections in Greece, despite considerable local mosquito control actions. We examined spatial patterns and associations of mosquito levels, infected mosquito levels, and WNV human cases (WNVhc) across the municipalities of this region over the period 2010-2023 and linked it with climatic characteristics. We combined novel entomological and available epidemiological and climate data for the RCM, aggregated at the municipality level and used Local and Global Moran's I index to assess spatial associations of mosquito levels, infected mosquito levels, and WNVhc. We identified areas with strong interdependencies between adjacent municipalities in the Western part of the region. Furthermore, we employed a Generalized Linear Mixed Model to first, identify the factors driving the observed levels of mosquitoes, infected mosquitoes and WNVhc and second, estimate the influence of climatic features on the observed levels. This modeling approach indicates a strong dependence of the mosquito levels on the temperatures in winter and spring and the total precipitation in early spring, while virus circulation relies on the temperatures of late spring and summer. Our findings highlight the significant influence of climatic factors on mosquito populations (∼60 % explained variance) and the incidence of WNV human cases (∼40 % explained variance), while the unexplained ∼40 % of the variance suggests that targeted interventions and enhanced surveillance in identified hot-spots can enhance public health response.

Overwintering West Nile virus in active Culex pipiens mosquito populations in Greece

The flavivirus West Nile Virus (WNV), which is transmitted by mosquitoes, poses a significant threat to both humans and animals, and its outbreaks often challenge public health in Europe and other continents. In recent years, there is an increasing trend of WNV incidence rates across several European countries. However, whether there is a year-round circulation or seasonal introduction has yet to be elucidated. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) identified WNV-positive Culex pipiens mosquitos in 6 out of 146 pools examined in winter 2022 that correspond to three out of the 24 study areas, located in two coastal regions units in Attica, Greece. Spatial dispersion of the six positive pools in the same region suggests a clustered circulation of WNV during the winter of 2022. This is the first study that documents the identification of WNV in Cx. pipiens populations, captured in adult traps during winter period. Our findings underscore the need to extend entomological surveillance programs to include the winter period, specifically in temperate climates and historically affected areas by WNV.

Empirical dynamic modelling and enhanced causal analysis of short-length Culex abundance timeseries with vector correlation metrics

Employing Empirical Dynamic Modelling we investigate whether model free methods could be applied in the study of Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Applying Simplex Projection and S-Map algorithms on yearly timeseries of maximum abundances from 2011 to 2020 we successfully predict the decreasing trend in the maximum number of mosquitoes which was observed in the rural area of Thessaloniki during 2021. Leveraging the use of vector correlation metrics we were able to deduce the main environmental factors driving mosquito abundance such as temperature, rain and wind during 2012 and study the causal interaction between neighbouring populations in the industrial area of Thessaloniki between 2019 and 2020. In all three cases a chaotic and non-linear behaviour of the underlying system was observed. Given the health risk associated with the presence of mosquitoes as vectors of viral diseases these results hint to the usefulness of EDM methods in entomological studies as guides for the construction of more accurate and realistic mechanistic models which are indispensable to public health authorities for the design of targeted control strategies and health prevention measures.