Machine learning of language use on Twitter reveals weak and non-specific predictions

Machine learning models for diagnosis and risk prediction in eating disorders, depression, and alcohol use disorder

This study uses machine learning models to uncover diagnostic and risk prediction markers for eating disorders (EDs), major depressive disorder (MDD), and alcohol use disorder (AUD). Utilizing case-control samples (ages 18-25 years) and a longitudinal population-based sample (n=1,851), the models, incorporating diverse data domains, achieved high accuracy in classifying EDs, MDD, and AUD from healthy controls. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC [95% CI]) reached 0.92 [0.86-0.97] for AN and 0.91 [0.85-0.96] for BN, without relying on body mass index as a predictor. The classification accuracies for MDD (0.91 [0.88-0.94]) and AUD (0.80 [0.74-0.85]) were also high. Each data domain emerged as accurate classifiers individually, with personality distinguishing AN, BN, and their controls with AUC-ROCs ranging from 0.77 to 0.89. The models demonstrated high transdiagnostic potential, as those trained for EDs were also accurate in classifying AUD and MDD from healthy controls, and vice versa (AUC-ROCs, 0.75-0.93). Shared predictors, such as neuroticism, hopelessness, and symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, were identified as reliable classifiers. For risk prediction in the longitudinal population sample, the models exhibited moderate performance (AUC-ROCs, 0.64-0.71), highlighting the potential of combining multi-domain data for precise diagnostic and risk prediction applications in psychiatry.

A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China

Climate policies can have a significant impact on the economy. However, these policies have often been associated with uncertainty. Quantitative assessment of the socioeconomic impact of climate policy uncertainty is equally or perhaps more important than looking at the policies themselves. Using a deep learning algorithm-the MacBERT model-this study constructed indices of Chinese climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) at the national, provincial and city levels for the first time. The CCPU indices are based on the text mining of news published by a set of major newspapers in China. A clear upward trend was found in the indices, demonstrating increasing policy uncertainties in China in addressing climate change. There is also evidence of clear regional heterogeneity in subnational indices. The CCPU dataset can provide a useful source of information for government actors, academics and investors in understanding the dynamics of climate policies in China. These indices can also be used to investigate the empirical relationship between climate policy uncertainty and other socioeconomic factors in China.

Detection of Suicidal Ideation in Clinical Interviews for Depression Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning: Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Assessing patients' suicide risk is challenging, especially among those who deny suicidal ideation. Primary care providers have poor agreement in screening suicide risk. Patients' speech may provide more objective, language-based clues about their underlying suicidal ideation. Text analysis to detect suicide risk in depression is lacking in the literature.

Objective

This study aimed to determine whether suicidal ideation can be detected via language features in clinical interviews for depression using natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning (ML).

Methods

This cross-sectional study recruited 305 participants between October 2020 and May 2022 (mean age 53.0, SD 11.77 years; female: n=176, 57%), of which 197 had lifetime depression and 108 were healthy. This study was part of ongoing research on characterizing depression with a case-control design. In this study, 236 participants were nonsuicidal, while 56 and 13 had low and high suicide risks, respectively. The structured interview guide for the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD) was adopted to assess suicide risk and depression severity. Suicide risk was clinician rated based on a suicide-related question (H11). The interviews were transcribed and the words in participants' verbal responses were translated into psychologically meaningful categories using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC).

Results

Ordinal logistic regression revealed significant suicide-related language features in participants' responses to the HAMD questions. Increased use of anger words when talking about work and activities posed the highest suicide risk (odds ratio [OR] 2.91, 95% CI 1.22-8.55; P=.02). Random forest models demonstrated that text analysis of the direct responses to H11 was effective in identifying individuals with high suicide risk (AUC 0.76-0.89; P<.001) and detecting suicide risk in general, including both low and high suicide risk (AUC 0.83-0.92; P<.001). More importantly, suicide risk can be detected with satisfactory performance even without patients' disclosure of suicidal ideation. Based on the response to the question on hypochondriasis, ML models were trained to identify individuals with high suicide risk (AUC 0.76; P<.001).

Conclusions

This study examined the perspective of using NLP and ML to analyze the texts from clinical interviews for suicidality detection, which has the potential to provide more accurate and specific markers for suicidal ideation detection. The findings may pave the way for developing high-performance assessment of suicide risk for automated detection, including online chatbot-based interviews for universal screening.

A natural language processing approach reveals first-person pronoun usage and non-fluency as markers of therapeutic alliance in psychotherapy

It remains elusive what language markers derived from psychotherapy sessions are indicative of therapeutic alliance, limiting our capacity to assess and provide feedback on the trusting quality of the patient-clinician relationship. To address this critical knowledge gap, we leveraged feature extraction methods from natural language processing (NLP), a subfield of artificial intelligence, to quantify pronoun and non-fluency language markers that are relevant for communicative and emotional aspects of therapeutic relationships. From twenty-eight transcripts of non-manualized psychotherapy sessions recorded in outpatient clinics, we identified therapists' first-person pronoun usage frequency and patients' speech transition marking relaxed interaction style as potential metrics of alliance. Behavioral data from patients who played an economic game that measures social exchange (i.e. trust game) suggested that therapists' first-person pronoun usage may influence alliance ratings through their diminished trusting behavior toward therapists. Together, this work supports that communicative language features in patient-therapist dialogues could be markers of alliance.

Identifying Transdiagnostic Mechanisms in Mental Health Using Computational Factor Modeling

Most psychiatric disorders do not occur in isolation, and most psychiatric symptom dimensions are not uniquely expressed within a single diagnostic category. Current treatments fail to work for around 25% to 40% of individuals, perhaps due at least in part to an overreliance on diagnostic categories in treatment development and allocation. In this review, we describe ongoing efforts in the field to surmount these challenges and precisely characterize psychiatric symptom dimensions using large-scale studies of unselected samples via remote, online, and "citizen science" efforts that take a dimensional, mechanistic approach. We discuss the importance that efforts to identify meaningful psychiatric dimensions be coupled with careful computational modeling to formally specify, test, and potentially falsify candidate mechanisms that underlie transdiagnostic symptom dimensions. We refer to this approach, i.e., where symptom dimensions are identified and validated against computationally well-defined neurocognitive processes, as computational factor modeling. We describe in detail some recent applications of this method to understand transdiagnostic cognitive processes that include model-based planning, metacognition, appetitive processing, and uncertainty estimation. In this context, we highlight how computational factor modeling has been used to identify specific associations between cognition and symptom dimensions and reveal previously obscured relationships, how findings generalize to smaller in-person clinical and nonclinical samples, and how the method is being adapted and optimized beyond its original instantiation. Crucially, we discuss next steps for this area of research, highlighting the value of more direct investigations of treatment response that bridge the gap between basic research and the clinic.

Factors Affecting the Use of Social Networks and Its Effect on Anxiety and Depression among Parents and Their Children: Predictors Using ML, SEM and Extended TAM

Previous research has found support for depression and anxiety associated with social networks. However, little research has explored parents' depression and anxiety constructs as mediators that may account for children's depression and anxiety. The purpose of this paper is to test the influence of different factors on children's depression and anxiety, extending from parents' anxiety and depression in Jordan. The authors recruited 857 parents to complete relevant web survey measures with constructs and items and a model based on different research models TAM and extended with trust, analyzed using SEM, CFA with SPSS and AMOS, and ML methods, using the triangulation method to validate the results and help predict future applications. The authors found support for the structural model whereby behavioral intention to use social media influences the parent's anxiety and depression which correlate to their offspring's anxiety and depression. Behavioral intention to use social media can be enticed by enjoyment, trust, ease of use, usefulness, and social influences. This study is unique in exploring rumination in the context of the relationship between parent-child anxiety and depression due to the use of social networks.

Functional neuroimaging in psychiatry and the case for failing better

Psychiatric disorders encompass complex aberrations of cognition and affect and are among the most debilitating and poorly understood of any medical condition. Current treatments rely primarily on interventions that target brain function (drugs) or learning processes (psychotherapy). A mechanistic understanding of how these interventions mediate their therapeutic effects remains elusive. From the early 1990s, non-invasive functional neuroimaging, coupled with parallel developments in the cognitive neurosciences, seemed to signal a new era of neurobiologically grounded diagnosis and treatment in psychiatry. Yet, despite three decades of intense neuroimaging research, we still lack a neurobiological account for any psychiatric condition. Likewise, functional neuroimaging plays no role in clinical decision making. Here, we offer a critical commentary on this impasse and suggest how the field might fare better and deliver impactful neurobiological insights.