Effects of a natural disaster on mortality risks over the longer term

Exposure to the Indian Ocean Tsunami shapes the HPA-axis resulting in HPA "burnout" 14 years later

Despite significant research on the effects of stress on the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, questions remain regarding long-term impacts of large-scale stressors. Leveraging data on exposure to an unanticipated major natural disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, we provide causal evidence of its imprint on hair cortisol levels fourteen years later. Data are drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, a population-representative longitudinal study of tsunami survivors who were living along the coast of Aceh, Indonesia, when the tsunami hit. Annual rounds of data, collected before, the year after and 2 y after the disaster provide detailed information about tsunami exposures and self-reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Hair samples collected 14 y after the tsunami from a sample of adult participants provide measures of cortisol levels, integrated over several months. Hair cortisol concentrations are substantially and significantly lower among females who were living, at the time of the tsunami, in communities directly damaged by the tsunami, in comparison with similar females living in other, nearby communities. Differences among males are small and not significant. Cortisol concentrations are lowest among those females living in damaged communities who reported elevated post-traumatic stress symptoms persistently for two years after the tsunami, indicating that the negative effects of exposure were largest for them. Low cortisol is also associated with contemporaneous reports of poor self-rated general and psychosocial health. Taken together, the evidence points to dysregulation in the HPA axis and "burnout" among these females fourteen years after exposure to the disaster.

Climate Change and Aging Health in Developing Countries

The climate of the Earth has changed throughout history. Climate change negatively impacts human rights in a wide range of ways. The study aims to find out the impact of climate change on aging health in developing countries. The study found that public health will be devastated if climate change continues unabated. Countries that are least responsible for global warming are most susceptible to the effects of higher temperatures, such as death and disease. In low- and middle-income countries, disasters are more likely to happen to people aged 60 and over. Although climate change affects all of us, older people are especially at risk from it, as evidenced by a growing body of research. The study also offers countermeasures and suggestions to develop aging health in developing countries affected by climate change.

Examining the Indirect Death Surveillance System of The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

The long-term mortality risk of natural disasters is a key threat to disaster resilience improvement, yet an authoritative certification and a reliable surveillance system are, unfortunately, yet to be established in many countries. This study aimed to clarify the mechanism of post-disaster indirect deaths in Japan, to improve the existing disaster recovery evaluation system and support decision making in public policy. This study first investigated the definition of indirect deaths via a literature review before examining the observed number of indirect deaths via case study, census data from the Population Demographic and Household Surveys, other social surveys, and reports in the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, which severely damaged northeastern Japan, especially the three prefectures, which are the target areas in this context (i.e., Fukushima, Iwate, and Miyagi). It was found that the reported number of indirect deaths was significantly underestimated. In total, 4657 indirect deaths were estimated to have occurred in the target prefectures. This was higher than the reported number, which was 3784. The overall statistics established via collaboration between local administrations and governments can be improved to provide better reference for researchers and policymakers to investigate the long-term effects of natural disaster.

Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine death occurrences of Puerto Ricans on the mainland USA following the arrival of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in September 2017.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

PARTICIPANTS

Persons of Puerto Rican origin on the mainland USA.

EXPOSURES

Hurricane Maria.

MAIN OUTCOME

We use an interrupted time series design to analyse all-cause mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA following the hurricane. Hispanic origin data from the National Vital Statistics System and from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey are used to estimate monthly origin-specific mortality rates for the period 2012-2018. We estimated log-linear regressions of monthly deaths of persons of Puerto Rican origin by age group, gender, and educational attainment.

RESULTS

We found an increase in mortality for persons of Puerto Rican origin during the 6-month period following the hurricane (October 2017 through March 2018), suggesting that deaths among these persons were 3.7% (95% CI 0.025 to 0.049) higher than would have otherwise been expected. In absolute terms, we estimated 514 excess deaths (95% CI 346 to 681) of persons of Puerto Rican origin that occurred on the mainland USA, concentrated in those aged 65 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest an undercounting of previous deaths as a result of the hurricane due to the systematic effects on the displaced and resident populations in the mainland USA. Displaced populations are frequently overlooked in disaster relief and subsequent research. Ignoring these populations provides an incomplete understanding of the damages and loss of life.

Families' Health after the Great East Japan Earthquake: Findings from the Tohoku Medical Megabank Project Birth and Three-Generation Cohort Study

Infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and mental disorders in both adults and children are reported after disasters occur. The correlation between chronic diseases and mental disorders has also been reported. Moreover, disasters may affect perinatal outcomes. Thus, both adult and child health should be carefully monitored in disaster aftermath. A prospective cohort study of pregnant women and their families, the Tohoku Medical Megabank Project (TMM) Birth and Three-Generation Cohort Study (TMM BirThree Cohort Study), has been conducted since 2013. A total of 73,529 family members participated in the TMM BirThree Cohort Study. Among siblings, the proportion of "small for gestational age" was the same in the pre- and post-disaster periods. Among parents and grandparents who answered the baseline questionnaire, 5.6% in the inland area and 19.8% in the coastal area had their houses totally/mostly destroyed by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Although a depression trend due to house damage was not observed in mothers, the proportion of psychological distress was high according to house damage (P for trend = 0.04). Among parents, there was an increase in overweight persons (P for trend = 0.004 in mothers and < 0.0001 in fathers) and in the number of smokers based on the severity of house damage (P for trend = 0.002 in mothers and < 0.0001 in fathers), whereas no such trend was observed in grandparents. Continuous monitoring and support for those who need are essential. Moreover, utilizing existing cohort studies to investigate health status when we face a new disaster is desirable.

Population Responses to Environmental Change: Looking Back, Looking Forward

Over the past two decades, population researchers have engaged in a far-reaching and productive program of research on demographic responses to changes in the natural environment. This essay "looks back" to the origins of these developments, identifying pivotal agenda-setting moments in the 1990s and tracing the impact on contemporary research. The essay also "looks forward" to identify critical gaps and challenges that remain to be addressed and to set an agenda for future research on population responses to environmental change. It recommends that the multidimensionality of environmental contexts and change be fully embraced, long run as well as short term effects be investigated, variability in the effects of environmental change in relation to social institutions, policy implementation, and environmental context be examined, movement between contexts as well as change in situ as sources of environmental change be considered, and interconnections among demographic processes in response to environmental change be explored. Taking these steps will position demographers to contribute significantly to a larger and deeper understanding of environmental change and its consequences, locally, regionally, and globally.

The impact of early social support on subsequent health recovery after a major disaster: A longitudinal analysis

Social support may facilitate disaster recovery. Prior analyses are hampered by the limits of cross-sectional approaches. We use longitudinal data from the KATIVA-NOLA survey to explore whether social support soon after Hurricane Katrina facilitated recovery of health status for a representative sample of 82 Vietnamese New Orleanians. Health and social support were assessed just before Hurricane Katrina (2005), soon afterwards (2006, 2007), and at longer durations post-disaster (2010, 2018). We use random effects regression to examine how social support measured in 2006 influences mental and physical health measured in 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2018. Social support soon after Katrina was positively associated with physical health and mental health years later in 2010, even after controlling for potential confounders such as Katrina-related housing damage and pre-Katrina health and support and modeling an interaction between year and social support in 2006. Other immigrants who are highly impacted by a major disaster could benefit from programs that seek to rapidly reconstruct systems of social support.

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We use longitudinal data to explore if social support soon after Hurricane Katrina facilitated recovery for Vietnamese.

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We use random effects regression to examine how social support measured in 2006 influences health in the following years.

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Social support soon after Katrina was positively associated with health, even after controlling for potential confounders.

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Immigrants could benefit from programs seeking to rapidly reconstruct social support systems after a major disaster.

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Early social support may facilitate disaster recovery.

Building Damage Detection Using U-Net with Attention Mechanism from Pre- and Post-Disaster Remote Sensing Datasets

The building damage status is vital to plan rescue and reconstruction after a disaster and is also hard to detect and judge its level. Most existing studies focus on binary classification, and the attention of the model is distracted. In this study, we proposed a Siamese neural network that can localize and classify damaged buildings at one time. The main parts of this network are a variety of attention U-Nets using different backbones. The attention mechanism enables the network to pay more attention to the effective features and channels, so as to reduce the impact of useless features. We train them using the xBD dataset, which is a large-scale dataset for the advancement of building damage assessment, and compare their result balanced F (F1) scores. The score demonstrates that the performance of SEresNeXt with an attention mechanism gives the best performance among single models, with the F1 score reaching 0.787. To improve the accuracy, we fused the results and got the best overall F1 score of 0.792. To verify the transferability and robustness of the model, we selected the dataset on the Maxar Open Data Program of two recent disasters to investigate the performance. By visual comparison, the results show that our model is robust and transferable.