Bacterial load slopes represent biomarkers of tuberculosis therapy success, failure, and relapse

A pharmacometric multistate model for predicting long-term treatment outcomes of patients with pulmonary TB

BACKGROUND

Studying long-term treatment outcomes of TB is time-consuming and impractical. Early and reliable biomarkers reflecting treatment response and capable of predicting long-term outcomes are urgently needed.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a pharmacometric multistate model to evaluate the link between potential predictors and long-term outcomes.

METHODS

Data were obtained from two Phase II clinical trials (TMC207-C208 and TMC207-C209) with bedaquiline on top of a multidrug background regimen. Patients were typically followed throughout a 24 week investigational treatment period plus a 96 week follow-up period. A five-state multistate model (active TB, converted, recurrent TB, dropout, and death) was developed to describe observed transitions. Evaluated predictors included patient characteristics, baseline TB disease severity and on-treatment biomarkers.

RESULTS

A fast bacterial clearance in the first 2 weeks and low TB bacterial burden at baseline increased probability to achieve conversion, whereas patients with XDR-TB were less likely to reach conversion. Higher estimated mycobacterial load at the end of 24 week treatment increased the probability of recurrence. At 120 weeks, the model predicted 55% (95% prediction interval, 50%-60%), 6.5% (4.2%-9.0%) and 7.5% (5.2%-10%) of patients in converted, recurrent TB and death states, respectively. Simulations predicted a substantial increase of recurrence after 24 weeks in patients with slow bacterial clearance regardless of baseline bacterial burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed multistate model successfully described TB treatment outcomes. The multistate modelling framework enables prediction of several outcomes simultaneously, and allows mechanistically sound investigation of novel promising predictors. This may help support future biomarker evaluation, clinical trial design and analysis.

Challenges and Insights in the Diagnosis and Management of Orbital Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review of 113 Cases

Orbital tuberculosis (O-TB) is an extremely rare manifestation of extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), which affects orbital structures and causes very complex clinical scenarios that may simulate other pathologies affecting the orbit. Its diagnostic and therapeutic challenges are due to its rarity and lack of specificity on symptoms. This systematic review aims to give an in-depth analysis regarding the presentation of clinical features, diagnosis methods, treatment outcomes, and complications, enhancing the current understanding and management of O-TB. A systematic review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Literature searches were conducted in PubMed and Scopus up to August 2024. The literature review included case series, case reports, and retrospective studies focusing on O-TB and involved a total of 113 cases from 12 studies. The extracted data were qualitatively synthesized regarding patient demographics, clinical presentations, diagnostic methods, treatment regimens, and the ensuing outcomes. The review found that O-TB mostly affects subjects with a mean age of 37.75 years, although there is a very wide age range of reported cases: 2-82 years with an almost equal gender distribution. The most common symptoms were vision impairment at 71.68%, eyelid swelling at 9.73%, and exophthalmos at 5.31%. Imaging, especially with computed tomography (CT) scans in 60.18% of patients, along with histopathological confirmation and molecular biological confirmation positive in 46.02%, was the principal tool for diagnosis. In most cases, antitubercular therapy (ATT) was the mainstay of treatment, leading to complete resolution. However, 30.09% of these cases had some complications like glaucoma and cataracts that point to careful management and follow-up. O-TB still remains a diagnostic challenge due to its rarity and changing clinical presentations. Early diagnosis and identification, presently mainly through imaging and histopathological examination, is important for the management. This review shows the effectiveness of ATT in the treatment of O-TB but also brings out the need for better diagnostic facilities and uniformity in treatment protocols so that complications can be prevented and outcomes improved. Future studies must be directed toward the development of more sensitive diagnostic tools and the elucidation of immune responses in O-TB guiding better clinical practice.

Dose optimization of TBI-223 for enhanced therapeutic benefit compared to linezolid in antituberculosis regimen

TBI-223, a novel oxazolidinone for tuberculosis, is designed to provide improved efficacy and safety compared to linezolid in combination with bedaquiline and pretomanid (BPaL). We aim to optimize the dosing of TBI-223 within the BPaL regimen for enhanced therapeutic outcomes. TBI-223 is investigated in preclinical monotherapy, multidrug therapy, and lesion penetration experiments to describe its efficacy and safety versus linezolid. A translational platform incorporating linezolid and BPaL data from preclinical experiments and 4 clinical trials (NCT00396084, NCT02333799, NCT03086486, NCT00816426) is developed, enabling validation of the framework. TBI-223 preclinical and Phase 1 data (NCT03758612) are applied to the translational framework to predict clinical outcomes and optimize TBI-223 dosing in combination with bedaquiline and pretomanid. Results indicate that daily doses of 1200-2400 mg TBI-223 may achieve efficacy comparable to the BPaL regimen, with >90% of patients predicted to reach culture conversion by two months.

Determining the Delamanid Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics Susceptibility Breakpoint Using Monte Carlo Experiments

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, based on clinical breakpoints that incorporate pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) and clinical outcomes, is becoming a new standard in guiding individual patient therapy as well as for drug resistance surveillance. However, for most antituberculosis drugs, breakpoints are instead defined by the epidemiological cutoff values of the MIC of phenotypically wild-type strains irrespective of PK/PD or dose. In this study, we determined the PK/PD breakpoint for delamanid by estimating the probability of target attainment for the approved dose administered at 100 mg twice daily using Monte Carlo experiments. We used the PK/PD targets (0- to 24-h area under the concentration-time curve to MIC) identified in a murine chronic tuberculosis model, hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis, early bactericidal activity studies of patients with drug-susceptible tuberculosis, and population pharmacokinetics in patients with tuberculosis. At the MIC of 0.016 mg/L, determined using Middlebrook 7H11 agar, the probability of target attainment was 100% in the 10,000 simulated subjects. The probability of target attainment fell to 25%, 40%, and 68% for PK/PD targets derived from the mouse model, the hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis, and patients, respectively, at the MIC of 0.031 mg/L. This indicates that an MIC of 0.016 mg/L is the delamanid PK/PD breakpoint for delamanid at 100 mg twice daily. Our study demonstrated that it is feasible to use PK/PD approaches to define a breakpoint for an antituberculosis drug.

High rifampicin peak plasma concentrations accelerate the slow phase of bacterial decline in tuberculosis patients: Evidence for heteroresistance

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic treatments are often associated with a late slowdown in bacterial killing. This separates the killing of bacteria into at least two distinct phases: a quick phase followed by a slower phase, the latter of which is linked to treatment success. Current mechanistic explanations for the in vitro slowdown are either antibiotic persistence or heteroresistance. Persistence is defined as the switching back and forth between susceptible and non-susceptible states, while heteroresistance is defined as the coexistence of bacteria with heterogeneous susceptibilities. Both are also thought to cause a slowdown in the decline of bacterial populations in patients and therefore complicate and prolong antibiotic treatments. Reduced bacterial death rates over time are also observed within tuberculosis patients, yet the mechanistic reasons for this are unknown and therefore the strategies to mitigate them are also unknown.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyse a dose ranging trial for rifampicin in tuberculosis patients and show that there is a slowdown in the decline of bacteria. We show that the late phase of bacterial killing depends more on the peak drug concentrations than the total drug exposure. We compare these to pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of rifampicin heteroresistance and persistence. We find that the observation on the slow phase's dependence on pharmacokinetic measures, specifically peak concentrations are only compatible with models of heteroresistance and incompatible with models of persistence. The quantitative agreement between heteroresistance models and observations is very good ([Formula: see text]). To corroborate the importance of the slowdown, we validate our results by estimating the time to sputum culture conversion and compare the results to a different dose ranging trial.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that higher doses, specifically higher peak concentrations may be used to optimize rifampicin treatments by accelerating bacterial killing in the slow phase. It adds to the growing body of literature supporting higher rifampicin doses for shortening tuberculosis treatments.

Genome-wide tiled detection of circulating Mycobacterium tuberculosis cell-free DNA using Cas13

Detection of microbial cell-free DNA (cfDNA) circulating in the bloodstream has emerged as a promising new approach for diagnosing infection. Microbial diagnostics based on cfDNA require assays that can detect rare and highly fragmented pathogen nucleic acids. We now report WATSON (Whole-genome Assay using Tiled Surveillance Of Nucleic acids), a method to detect low amounts of pathogen cfDNA that couples pooled amplification of genomic targets tiled across the genome with pooled CRISPR/Cas13-based detection of these targets. We demonstrate that this strategy of tiling improves cfDNA detection compared to amplification and detection of a single targeted locus. WATSON can detect cfDNA from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in plasma of patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis, a disease that urgently needs accurate, minimally-invasive, field-deployable diagnostics. We thus demonstrate the potential for translating WATSON to a lateral flow platform. WATSON demonstrates the ability to capitalize on the strengths of targeting microbial cfDNA to address the need for point-of-care diagnostic tests for infectious diseases.

Minocycline intra-bacterial pharmacokinetic hysteresis as a basis for pharmacologic memory and a backbone for once-a-week pan-tuberculosis therapy

Background: There is need for shorter duration regimens for the treatment of tuberculosis, that can treat patients regardless of multidrug resistance status (pan-tuberculosis).

Methods: We combined minocycline with tedizolid, moxifloxacin, and rifampin, in the hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis and mimicked each drugs’ intrapulmonary pharmacokinetics for 28 days. Minocycline-tedizolid was administered either as a once-a-week or a daily regimen. In order to explore a possible explanation for effectiveness of the once-a-week regimen, we measured systemic and intra-bacterial minocycline pharmacokinetics. Standard daily therapy (rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide) was the comparator. We then calculated γ_f or kill slopes for each regimen and ranked the regimens by time-to-extinction predicted in patients.

Results: The steepest γ_f and shortest time-to-extinction of entire bacterial population was with daily minocycline-rifampin combination. There was no difference in γ_f between the minocycline-tedizolid once-a-week versus the daily therapy (p = 0.85). Standard therapy was predicted to cure 88% of patients, while minocycline-rifampin would cure 98% of patients. Minocycline concentrations fell below minimum inhibitory concentration after 2 days of once-weekly dosing schedule. The shape of minocycline intra-bacterial concentration-time curve differed from the extracellular pharmacokinetic system and lagged by several days, consistent with system hysteresis. Hysteresis explained the persistent microbial killing after hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis concentrations dropped below the minimum inhibitory concentration.

Conclusion: Minocycline could form a backbone of a shorter duration once-a-week pan-tuberculosis regimen. We propose a new concept of post-antibiotic microbial killing, distinct from post-antibiotic effect. We propose system hysteresis as the basis for the novel concept of pharmacologic memory, which allows intermittent dosing.

Omics Biomarkers for Monitoring Tuberculosis Treatment: A Mini-Review of Recent Insights and Future Approaches

Poor sensitivity of sputum conversion for monitoring tuberculosis (TB) treatment that makes identification of a non-sputum-based biomarker is urgently needed. Monitoring biomarkers in TB treatment is used to decide whether critical thresholds have been reached and helps clinicians to conclude the therapeutic success. In this mini review, we highlight recent studies on omics-related contributes to identifying of a novel biomarker as surrogate markers for the cure and predicting future reactivation risk following TB treatment. We catalogue the studies published to seek the progress made in transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics in pulmonary TB. We also discuss how integrative multi-omics data will provide further understanding and effective TB treatment, such as revealing the interrelationships at multiple molecular levels, facilitating the identification of biologically interconnected processes, and accelerating precision medicine in TB treatment. However, proper validation in prospective longitudinal studies with long-term follow-up and outcome assessment must be conducted before the biomarkers are utilized in clinical practice.

OUP accepted manuscript

Objectives

The standard of care (SOC) for the treatment of pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease (clarithromycin, rifabutin, and ethambutol) achieves sustained sputum conversion rates of only 54%. Thus, new treatments should be prioritized.

Methods

We identified the omadacycline MIC against one laboratory MAC strain and calculated drug half life in solution, which we compared with measured MAC doubling times. Next, we performed an omadacycline hollow fibre system model of intracellular MAC (HFS-MAC) exposure–effect study, as well as the three-drug SOC, using pharmacokinetics achieved in patient lung lesions. Data was analysed using bacterial kill slopes (γ-slopes) and inhibitory sigmoid E_max bacterial burden versus exposure analyses. Monte Carlo experiments (MCE) were used to identify the optimal omadacycline clinical dose.

Results

Omadacycline concentration declined in solution with a half-life of 27.7 h versus a MAC doubling time of 16.3 h, leading to artefactually high MICs. Exposures mediating 80% of maximal effect changed up to 8-fold depending on sampling day with bacterial burden versus exposure analyses, while γ-slope-based analyses gave a single robust estimate. The highest omadacycline monotherapy γ-slope was −0.114 (95% CI: −0.141 to −0.087) (r^2 =0.98) versus −0.114 (95% CI: −0.133 to −0.094) (r²= 0.99) with the SOC. MCEs demonstrated that 450 mg of omadacycline given orally on the first 2 days followed by 300 mg daily would achieve the AUC_0-24 target of 39.67 mg·h/L.

Conclusions

Omadacycline may be a potential treatment option for pulmonary MAC, possibly as a back-bone treatment for a new MAC regimen and warrants future study in treatment of this disease.

Comparative Effectiveness of Methotrexate versus Methylprednisolone in Treatment Naïve Pulmonary Sarcoidosis Patients

Among those who study granulomatous diseases, sarcoidosis is of tremendous interest, not only because its cause is unknown, but also because it is still as much an enigma today as it was 150 years ago when Jonathan Hutchinson first described the cutaneous form of the disease as “livid papillary psoriasis”. This piece editorializes a comparative effectiveness study of methotrexate versus methylprednisolone in treatment naïve pulmonary sarcoidosis patients for CT-guided clinical responses and drug-related adverse events.

Treatment effect measures for culture conversion endpoints in phase IIb tuberculosis treatment trials

Phase IIb trials of tuberculosis therapy rely on early biomarkers of treatment effect. Despite limited predictive ability for clinical outcomes, culture conversion, the event in which an individual previously culture positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis yields a negative culture after initiating treatment, is a commonly used endpoint. Lack of consensus on how to define the outcome and corresponding measure of treatment effect complicates interpretation and limits between-trial comparisons. We review common analytic approaches to measuring treatment effect and introduce difference in restricted mean survival times as an alternative to identify faster times to culture conversion and express magnitude of effect on the time scale. Findings from the PanACEA MAMSTB trial are reanalyzed as an illustrative example. In a systematic review we demonstrate variability in analytic approaches, sampling strategies, and outcome definitions in phase IIb tuberculosis trials. Harmonization would allow for larger meta-analyses, and may help expedite advancement of new TB therapeutics.