Capturing additional genetic risk from family history for improved polygenic risk prediction

Effects of polygenic risk score and sodium and potassium intake on hypertension in Asians: A nationwide prospective cohort study

Genetic factors, lifestyle, and diet have been shown to play important roles in the development of hypertension. Increased salt intake is an important risk factor for hypertension. However, research on the involvement of genetic factors in the relationship between salt intake and hypertension in Asians is lacking. We aimed to investigate the risk of hypertension in relation to sodium and potassium intake and the effects of genetic factors on their interactions. We used Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study data and calculated the polygenic risk score (PRS) for the effect of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP). We also conducted multivariable logistic modeling to evaluate associations among incident hypertension, PRSSBP, PRSDBP, and sodium and potassium intake. In total, 41,351 subjects were included in the test set. The top 10% PRSSBP group was the youngest of the three groups (bottom 10%, middle, top 10%), had the highest proportion of women, and had the highest body mass index, baseline BP, red meat intake, and alcohol consumption. The multivariable logistic regression model revealed the risk of hypertension was significantly associated with higher PRSSBP, higher sodium intake, and lower potassium intake. There was significant interaction between sodium intake and PRSSBP for incident hypertension especially in sodium intake ≥2.0 g/day and PRSSBP top 10% group (OR 1.27 (1.07-1.51), P = 0.007). Among patients at a high risk of incident hypertension due to sodium intake, lifestyle modifications and sodium restriction were especially important to prevent hypertension.

Association of Family History and Polygenic Risk Score With Longitudinal Prognosis in Parkinson Disease

Background and Objectives

Evidence suggests that either family history or polygenic risk score (PRS) is associated with developing Parkinson disease (PD). However, little is known about the longitudinal prognosis of PD according to family history and higher PRS.

Methods

From the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative database, 395 patients with PD who followed up for more than 2 years were grouped into those with family history within first-degree, second-degree, and third-degree relatives (N = 127 [32.2%]) vs those without (N = 268 [67.8%]). The PRS of 386 patients was computed using whole-genome sequencing data. Longitudinal assessment of motor, cognition, and imaging based on dopaminergic degeneration was conducted during the regular follow-up period. Effects of family history, PRS, or both on longitudinal changes of cognition, motor severity, and nigrostriatal degeneration were tested using a linear mixed model. The risk of freezing of gait (FOG) according to family history was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models.

Results

During a median follow-up of 9.1 years, PD with positive family history showed a slower decline of caudate dopamine transporter uptake (β estimate of family history × time = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.002-0.036, p = 0.027). Family history of PD and higher PRS were independently associated with a slower decline of Montreal Cognitive Assessment (β estimate of family history × time = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02-0.22, p = 0.017; β estimate of PRS × time = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.03-0.16, p = 0.006). In those 364 patients without FOG at baseline, PD with positive family history had a lower risk of FOG (hazard ratio of family history = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.38-0.84, p = 0.005).

Discussion

Having a family history of PD predicts slower progression of cognitive decline and caudate dopaminergic degeneration, and less FOG compared with those without a family history independent of PRS. Taken together, information on family history could be used as a proxy for the clinical heterogeneity of PD.

Trial Registration Information

The study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01141023), and the enrollment began June 1, 2010.

Identifying Rare Genetic Determinants for Improved Polygenic Risk Prediction of Bone Mineral Density and Fracture Risk

Osteoporosis and fractures severely impact the elderly population. Polygenic risk scores for bone mineral density have demonstrated potential clinical utility. However, the value of rare genetic determinants in risk prediction has not been assessed. With whole-exome sequencing data from 436,824 UK Biobank participants, we assigned White British ancestry individuals into a training data set (n = 317,434) and a test data set (n = 74,825). In the training data set, we developed a common variant-based polygenic risk score for heel ultrasound speed of sound (SOS). Next, we performed burden testing to identify genes harboring rare determinants of bone mineral density, targeting influential rare variants with predicted high deleteriousness. We constructed a genetic risk score, called ggSOS, to incorporate influential rare variants in significant gene burden masks into the common variant-based polygenic risk score. We assessed the predictive performance of ggSOS in the White British test data set, as well as in populations of non-White British European (n = 18,885), African (n = 7165), East Asian (n = 2236), South Asian (n = 9829), and other admixed (n = 1481) ancestries. Twelve genes in pivotal regulatory pathways of bone homeostasis harbored influential rare variants associated with SOS (p < 5.5 × 10-7 ), including AHNAK, BMP5, CYP19A1, FAM20A, FBXW5, KDM5B, KREMEN1, LGR4, LRP5, SMAD6, SOST, and WNT1. Among 4013 (5.4%) individuals in the test data set carrying these variants, a one standard deviation decrease in ggSOS was associated with 1.35-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.57) increased hazard of major osteoporotic fracture. However, compared with a common variant-based polygenic risk score (C-index = 0.641), ggSOS had only marginally improved prediction accuracy in identifying at-risk individuals (C-index = 0.644), with overlapping confidence intervals. Similarly, ggSOS did not demonstrate substantially improved predictive performance in non-European ancestry populations. In summary, modeling the effects of rare genetic determinants may assist polygenic prediction of fracture risk among carriers of influential rare variants. Nonetheless, improved clinical utility is not guaranteed for population-level risk screening. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Development of risk prediction models for depression combining genetic and early life risk factors

Background

Both genetic and early life risk factors play important roles in the pathogenesis and progression of adult depression. However, the interplay between these risk factors and their added value to risk prediction models have not been fully elucidated.

Methods

Leveraging a meta-analysis of major depressive disorder genome-wide association studies (N = 45,591 cases and 97,674 controls), we developed and optimized a polygenic risk score for depression using LDpred in a model selection dataset from the UK Biobank (N = 130,092 European ancestry individuals). In a UK Biobank test dataset (N = 278,730 European ancestry individuals), we tested whether the polygenic risk score and early life risk factors were associated with each other and compared their associations with depression phenotypes. Finally, we conducted joint predictive modeling to combine this polygenic risk score with early life risk factors by stepwise regression, and assessed the model performance in identifying individuals at high risk of depression.

Results

In the UK Biobank test dataset, the polygenic risk score for depression was moderately associated with multiple early life risk factors. For instance, a one standard deviation increase in the polygenic risk score was associated with 1.16-fold increased odds of frequent domestic violence (95% CI: 1.14-1.19) and 1.09-fold increased odds of not having access to medical care as a child (95% CI: 1.05-1.14). However, the polygenic risk score was more strongly associated with depression phenotypes than most early life risk factors. A joint predictive model integrating the polygenic risk score, early life risk factors, age and sex achieved an AUROC of 0.6766 for predicting strictly defined major depressive disorder, while a model without the polygenic risk score and a model without any early life risk factors had an AUROC of 0.6593 and 0.6318, respectively.

Conclusion

We have developed a polygenic risk score to partly capture the genetic liability to depression. Although genetic and early life risk factors can be correlated, joint predictive models improved risk stratification despite limited improvement in magnitude, and may be explored as tools to better identify individuals at high risk of depression.

Increased risk of pancreatic, thyroid, prostate and breast cancers in men with a family history of breast cancer: A population-based study

The association between a family history of breast cancer (FHBC) in female first-degree relatives (FDRs) and cancer risk in men has not been evaluated. This study aimed to compare the risks of overall and site-specific cancers in men with and without FHBC. A population-based study was conducted with 3 329 106 men aged ≥40 years who underwent national cancer screening between 2013 and 2014. Men with and without FHBC in their female FDRs were age-matched in a 1:4 ratio. Men without FHBC were defined as those without a family history of any cancer type in their FDRs. Data from 69 124 men with FHBC and 276 496 men without FHBC were analyzed. The mean follow-up period was 4.7 ± 0.9 years. Men with an FHBC in any FDR (mother or sister) had a higher risk of pancreatic, thyroid, prostate and breast cancers than those without an FHBC (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] (95% confidence interval [CI]): 1.35 (1.07-1.70), 1.33 (1.12-1.56), 1.28 (1.13-1.44) and 3.03 (1.130-8.17), respectively). Although an FHBC in any one of the FDRs was not associated with overall cancer risk, FHBC in both mother and sibling was a significant risk factor for overall cancer (aHR: 1.69, 95% CI:1.11-2.57) and increased the risk of thyroid cancer by 3.41-fold (95% CI: 1.10-10.61). FHBC in the mother or sister was a significant risk factor for pancreatic, thyroid, prostate and breast cancers in men; therefore, men with FHBC may require more careful BRCA1/2 mutation-related cancer surveillance.

The interplay of family history of depression and early trauma: associations with lifetime and current depression in the German national cohort (NAKO)

Introduction

Family history of depression and childhood maltreatment are established risk factors for depression. However, how these factors are interrelated and jointly influence depression risk is not well understood. The present study investigated (i) if childhood maltreatment is associated with a family history of depression (ii) if family history and childhood maltreatment are associated with increased lifetime and current depression, and whether both factors interact beyond their main effects, and (iii) if family history affects lifetime and current depression via childhood maltreatment.

Methods

Analyses were based on a subgroup of the first 100,000 participants of the German National Cohort (NAKO), with complete information (58,703 participants, mean age = 51.2 years, 53% female). Parental family history of depression was assessed via self-report, childhood maltreatment with the Childhood Trauma Screener (CTS), lifetime depression with self-reported physician's diagnosis and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), and current depressive symptoms with the depression scale of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Generalized linear models were used to test main and interaction effects. Mediation was tested using causal mediation analyses.

Results

Higher frequencies of the childhood maltreatment measures were found in subjects reporting a positive family history of depression. Family history and childhood maltreatment were independently associated with increased depression. No statistical interactions of family history and childhood maltreatment were found for the lifetime depression measures. For current depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 sum score), an interaction was found, with stronger associations of childhood maltreatment and depression in subjects with a positive family history. Childhood maltreatment was estimated to mediate 7%-12% of the effect of family history on depression, with higher mediated proportions in subjects whose parents had a depression onset below 40 years. Abuse showed stronger associations with family history and depression, and higher mediated proportions of family history effects on depression than neglect.

Discussion

The present study confirms the association of childhood maltreatment and family history with depression in a large population-based cohort. While analyses provide little evidence for the joint effects of both risk factors on depression beyond their individual effects, results are consistent with family history affecting depression via childhood maltreatment to a small extent.

Genetic determinants of polygenic prediction accuracy within a population

Genomic risk prediction is on the emerging path toward personalized medicine. However, the accuracy of polygenic prediction varies strongly in different individuals. Based on up to 352,277 European ancestry participants in the UK Biobank, we constructed polygenic risk scores for 15 physiological and biochemical quantitative traits. We identified a total of 185 polygenic prediction variability quantitative trait loci for 11 traits by Levene's test among 254,376 unrelated individuals. We validated the effects of prediction variability quantitative trait loci using an independent test set of 58,927 individuals. For instance, a score aggregating 51 prediction variability quantitative trait locus variants for triglycerides had the strongest Spearman correlation of 0.185 (P-value <1.0 × 10-300) with the squared prediction errors. We found a strong enrichment of complex genetic effects conferred by prediction variability quantitative trait loci compared to risk loci identified in genome-wide association studies, including 89 prediction variability quantitative trait loci exhibiting dominance effects. Incorporation of dominance effects into polygenic risk scores significantly improved polygenic prediction for triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, vitamin D, and platelet. In conclusion, we have discovered and profiled genetic determinants of polygenic prediction variability for 11 quantitative biomarkers. These findings may assist interpretation of genomic risk prediction in various contexts and encourage novel approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores with complex genetic effects.