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Bai Z, Zhang N, Winiwarter W, Luo J, Chang J, Smith P, Ledgard S, Wu Y, Hong C, Conchedda G, Ma L. Decline in carbon emission intensity of global agriculture has stagnated recently. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2317725121. [PMID: 39133857 PMCID: PMC11348233 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2317725121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2024] [Indexed: 08/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Using global data for around 180 countries and territories and 170 food/feed types primarily derived from FAOSTAT, we have systematically analyzed the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (GHGi) (kg CO2eq per kg protein production) over the past six decades. We found that, with large spatial heterogeneity, emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, predominantly in the earlier years due to agronomic improvement in productivity. However, in the most recent decade, emission intensity has become stagnant, and in a few countries even showed an increase, due to the rapid increase in livestock production and land use changes. The trade of final produced protein between countries has potentially reduced the global GHGi, especially for countries that are net importers with high GHGi, such as many in Africa and South Asia. Overall, a continuous decline of emission intensity in the future relies on countries with higher emission intensity to increase agricultural productivity and minimize land use changes. Countries with lower emission intensity should reduce livestock production and increase the free trade of agricultural products and improve the trade optimality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaohai Bai
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang050022, Hebei, China
| | - Nannan Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang050022, Hebei, China
| | - Wilfried Winiwarter
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, LaxenburgA-2361, Austria
- The Institute of Environmental Engineering, University of Zielona Góra, Zielona Góra65-417, Poland
| | - Jiafa Luo
- AgResearch Limited, Ruakura Research Centre, Hamilton3240, New Zealand
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou310058, China
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, AberdeenAB24 3UU, United Kingdom
| | - Stewart Ledgard
- AgResearch Limited, Ruakura Research Centre, Hamilton3240, New Zealand
| | - Yan Wu
- Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou310015, China
| | - Chaopeng Hong
- Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen518055, China
| | - Giulia Conchedda
- Statistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome00153, Italy
| | - Lin Ma
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang050022, Hebei, China
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, Jiangsu, China
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Zhang T, Hu Q, Li T, Gao X, Zhou Y, Liu X, Lun F. Did the International Trade in Crops Lead to Global Cropland Saving or Wasting in the Period 2000-2022? Foods 2024; 13:2371. [PMID: 39123562 PMCID: PMC11311825 DOI: 10.3390/foods13152371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2024] [Revised: 07/22/2024] [Accepted: 07/25/2024] [Indexed: 08/12/2024] Open
Abstract
The international food trade is beneficial for enhancing global food security but also raises issues such as global cropland redistribution, land use efficiency, and environmental problems. While current studies have examined the impacts of the international food trade on these issues, its long-term effects on global cropland use efficiency remain unclear, especially when considering different crops and countries. Utilizing the international trade theory and the principle of virtual cropland, this study explores the relationship between international food trade and global cropland use efficiency from 2000 to 2022. The results illustrate that the global crop trade surged by 142%, outpacing the 102% increase in virtual cropland trade, which was attributed to crop yield enhancements. By 2022, the global virtual cropland trade encompassed 10.7% of the total croplands, with China emerging as the foremost importer, particularly due to soybean imports. Notably, the global crop trade led to substantial cropland savings and higher cropland use efficiency, totaling 1244.9 million hectares (Mha) between 2000 and 2020. These gains were largely attributed to the superior yields of major crop-exporting countries. Despite these gains, socio-economically vulnerable countries face significant challenges, potentially compromising their food security amidst the complexities of the global trade dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianbao Zhang
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (T.Z.); (Q.H.); (T.L.); (X.G.)
| | - Qiyuan Hu
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (T.Z.); (Q.H.); (T.L.); (X.G.)
| | - Tanglu Li
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (T.Z.); (Q.H.); (T.L.); (X.G.)
| | - Xiang Gao
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (T.Z.); (Q.H.); (T.L.); (X.G.)
| | - Yi Zhou
- School of Geographical Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
| | - Xiaojie Liu
- Key Laboratory of Natural Resource Coupling Process and Effects, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
| | - Fei Lun
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (T.Z.); (Q.H.); (T.L.); (X.G.)
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Chen C, Wen Z, Sheng N, Song Q. Uneven agricultural contraction within fast-urbanizing urban agglomeration decreases the nitrogen use efficiency of crop production. NATURE FOOD 2024; 5:390-401. [PMID: 38745017 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-00980-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
Diverse development paths among cities within an urban agglomeration can lead to uneven changes in their agricultural production scale, which reshape the inter-city food supply patterns and the spatiotemporal characteristics of nitrogen (N) pollution from the food system. Here, using Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China as a case, we found a substantial decrease in N use efficiency of crop production from 45.2% to 29.3% during 1989-2007, along with a growing level of concentration of food N production in less-urbanized cities. From 1989 to 2018, 12.3% to 42.2% of total N pollution in food production became embedded in inter-city trade, leading to aggregation of N pollution in peripheral cities with relatively low levels of economic development. We suggest that protection and intensification of cropland from urban encroachment, as well as enhancing the economic and technical synergies among cities, can serve the sustainable transition of the food system with coordinated N pollution mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Chen
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Zongguo Wen
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
| | - Ni Sheng
- School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao, China
| | - Qingbin Song
- Macao Environmental Research Institute, Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao, China
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4
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Kahiluoto H, Sakieh Y, Kaseva J, Kersebaum KC, Minoli S, Franke J, Rötter RP, Müller C. Redistribution of nitrogen to feed the people on a safer planet. PNAS NEXUS 2024; 3:pgae170. [PMID: 38745567 PMCID: PMC11093128 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
Lack of nitrogen limits food production in poor countries while excessive nitrogen use in industrial countries has led to transgression of the planetary boundary. However, the potential of spatial redistribution of nitrogen input for food security when returning to the safe boundary has not been quantified in a robust manner. Using an emulator of a global gridded crop model ensemble, we found that redistribution of current nitrogen input to major cereals among countries can double production in the most food-insecure countries, while increasing global production of these crops by 12% with no notable regional loss or reducing the nitrogen input to the current production by one-third. Redistribution of the input within the boundary increased production by 6-8% compared to the current relative distribution, increasing production in the food-insecure countries by two-thirds. Our findings provide georeferenced guidelines for redistributing nitrogen use to enhance food security while safeguarding the planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helena Kahiluoto
- Sustainability Science, LUT University, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
- Agroecology, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Yousef Sakieh
- Sustainability Science, LUT University, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
| | - Janne Kaseva
- Applied Statistical Methods, Natural Resources Institute Finland, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kurt-Christian Kersebaum
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modeling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
- Ecosystem Modelling, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
- Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Sara Minoli
- Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
| | - James Franke
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60647, USA
| | - Reimund P Rötter
- Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modeling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
- Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Christoph Müller
- Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
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Feng R, Li Z. Current investigations on global N 2O emissions and reductions: Prospect and outlook. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2023; 338:122664. [PMID: 37813141 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.122664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Revised: 09/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions merit scrutiny, because N2O is the third most important greenhouse gas for global warming and the predominant ozone-depleting substance in this century. Here we recapitulate global natural and anthropogenic N2O sources, comprehensively depict global sectoral human-induced N2O emissions by country, thoroughly survey all existing approaches for mitigating human-induced N2O emissions, preview the economic costs and social benefits from abating N2O emissions, and summarize roadblocks for achieving its emission reductions. From 1970 to 2018, the annual global anthropogenic N2O emissions increased by 64%-about 3.6 teragrams (Tg); agricultural sources primarily accounted for 78% of this increment. We find the social benefits from reducing N2O emissions override the economic costs for abatements, only except precision farming for agricultural sources and replacement by Xe for anesthetic, thus justifying the motivation for crafting policies to limit its emissions. Net zero N2O emissions cannot be achieved via applying current technologies and breeding N2O-reducing microbes is a potential method to accrue N2O sinks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rui Feng
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; State Key Laboratory of Clean Energy Utilization, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China.
| | - Zhenhua Li
- Xiacheng District Study-Aid Science & Technology Studio, Hangzhou, 310004, China
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van Selm B, Hijbeek R, van Ittersum MK, van Hal O, van Middelaar CE, de Boer IJM. Recoupling livestock and feed production in the Netherlands to reduce environmental impacts. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 899:165540. [PMID: 37467975 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Revised: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/21/2023]
Abstract
In many places on earth, livestock and feed production are decoupled, as feed is grown in one region and fed to livestock in another. This disrupts nutrient cycles by depleting resources in feed producing regions and accumulating resources in livestock areas, which leads to environmental degradation. One solution is to recouple livestock and feed production at a more local level, which enhances nutrient circularity. Recoupling livestock and feed production creates a natural ceiling for livestock numbers based on the feed producing capacity of a region. In this study we assess the consequences of recoupling livestock and feed production (i.e., by avoiding the import and export of animal feed) on ammonia and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with and without feed-food competition. To this end, we used FOODSOM, an agro-ecological food system optimisation model representing the Dutch food system in this study. The Netherlands is one example of a region with high livestock densities and resource accumulation. We found that recoupling decreased livestock numbers (beef cattle: -100 %; dairy cattle: -29 %; broiler chickens: -57 %; laying hens: -67 %; pigs: -62 %; sheep -100 %) and animal-sourced food exports (-59 %) while still meeting the current human diet in the Netherlands. Consequently, ammonia emissions and GHG emissions decreased, and the nitrogen use efficiency increased from 31 % to 38 % at the food systems level. Recoupling alone was almost sufficient to meet national emission targets. Fully meeting these targets required further small changes in livestock numbers. Avoiding feed-food competition decreased livestock productivity and GHG emissions but did not improve nitrogen use efficiency. Total meat production could not meet domestic consumption levels while avoiding feed-food competition, and resulted in additional beef cattle. We show that recoupling livestock and feed production is a promising next step to enhance circularity while decreasing agricultures environmental impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin van Selm
- Animal Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands; Plant Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
| | - Renske Hijbeek
- Plant Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Martin K van Ittersum
- Plant Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Ollie van Hal
- Animal Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Corina E van Middelaar
- Animal Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Imke J M de Boer
- Animal Production Systems group, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Bai Z, Liu L, Obersteiner M, Mosnier A, Chen X, Yuan Z, Ma L. Agricultural trade impacts global phosphorus use and partial productivity. NATURE FOOD 2023; 4:762-773. [PMID: 37550541 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00822-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 07/11/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
The spatio-temporal distribution, flow and end use of phosphorus (P) embedded in traded agricultural products are poorly understood. Here we use global trade matrices to analyse the partial factor productivity of P (output per unit of P input) for crop and livestock products in 200 countries and their cumulative contributions to the export or import of agricultural products over 1961-2019. In these six decades, the trade of agricultural P products has increased global partial factor productivity for crop and livestock production and has theoretically saved 67 Tg P in fertilizers and 1.6 Tg P in feed. However, trade is now at risk of contributing to wasteful use of P resources globally due to a decline in trade optimality, as agricultural products are increasingly exported from low to high partial factor productivity countries and due to P embedded in imported agricultural products mainly lost to the environment without recycling. Integrated crop-livestock production systems and P-recycling technologies can help.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaohai Bai
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China.
- Xiongan Institute of Innovation, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiongan, China.
| | - Ling Liu
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Aline Mosnier
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Paris, France
| | - Xinping Chen
- Interdisciplinary Research Center for Agriculture Green Development in Yangtze River Basin, College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China
| | - Zengwei Yuan
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
- Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Lin Ma
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China.
- Interdisciplinary Research Center for Agriculture Green Development in Yangtze River Basin, College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China.
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Tian X, Li D, Zhao X, Xiao Z, Sun J, Yuan T, Wang Y, Zuo X, Yang G, Yu T. Dietary grape pomace extract supplementation improved meat quality, antioxidant capacity, and immune performance in finishing pigs. Front Microbiol 2023; 14:1116022. [PMID: 36937296 PMCID: PMC10017996 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1116022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2023] Open
Abstract
In pig production, reducing production costs and improving immunity are important. Grape pomace, a good agricultural by-product, has been thrown away as food waste for a long time. Recently, we found that it could be used as a new source of pig feed. We investigated the effect of grape pomace on inflammation, gut barrier function, meat quality, and growth performance in finishing pigs. Our results indicated that treatment samples showed a significant decrease in water loss, IL-1β, DAO, ROS, and MDA content (p < 0.05). IgA, IgG, IgM, CAT, T-AOC, SOD, and IFN-γ significantly increased compared with those in control samples (p < 0.05). Meanwhile, the relative mRNA expression of the tight junction protein occludin showed a significant difference (p < 0.05). Analysis of metagenomic sequencing indicated that grape pomace significantly decreased the relative abundance of Treponema and Streptococcus (p < 0.05). In summary, our results demonstrated that grape pomace could improve meat quality, alleviate inflammation, and decrease oxidative stress.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuekai Tian
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Dong Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xin Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zitong Xiao
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jingchun Sun
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Tiantian Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yongcheng Wang
- Qinghai Yufu Animal Husbandry Development Co., Ltd, Qinghai, China
| | - Xinhui Zuo
- Ningxia Lilan Winery Co., Ltd, Yinchuan, Ningxia, China
| | - Gongshe Yang
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
| | - Taiyong Yu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction of Shaanxi Province, Laboratory of Animal Fat Deposition and Muscle Development, College of Animal Science and Technology, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China
- *Correspondence: Taiyong Yu,
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Geyik Ö, Hadjikakou M, Bryan BA. Climate-friendly and nutrition-sensitive interventions can close the global dietary nutrient gap while reducing GHG emissions. NATURE FOOD 2023; 4:61-73. [PMID: 37118573 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-022-00648-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Sustainable food systems require malnutrition and climate change to be addressed in parallel. Here, we estimate the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions resulting from closing the world's dietary nutrient gap-that between country-level nutrient supply and population requirements-for energy, protein, iron, zinc, vitamin A, vitamin B12 and folate under five climate-friendly intervention scenarios in 2030. We show that improving crop and livestock productivity and halving food loss and waste can close the nutrient gap with up to 42% lower emissions (3.03 Gt CO2eq yr-1) compared with business-as-usual supply patterns with a persistent nutrient gap (5.48 Gt CO2eq yr-1). Increased production and trade of vegetables, eggs, and roots and tubers can close the nutrient gap with the lowest emissions in most countries-with ≤23% increase in total caloric production required for 2030 relative to 2015. We conclude that the world's nutrient gap could be closed without exceeding global climate targets and without drastic changes to national food baskets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Özge Geyik
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
- Sustainable Food Systems Research Training Group (RTG 2654), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
| | - Michalis Hadjikakou
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Brett A Bryan
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Xu P, Houlton BZ, Zheng Y, Zhou F, Ma L, Li B, Liu X, Li G, Lu H, Quan F, Hu S, Chen A. Policy-enabled stabilization of nitrous oxide emissions from livestock production in China over 1978-2017. NATURE FOOD 2022; 3:356-366. [PMID: 37117572 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-022-00513-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2021] [Accepted: 04/13/2022] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Mitigating livestock-related nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions is key for China to meet its 2060 carbon neutrality target. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of the magnitude, spatiotemporal variation and drivers of Chinese livestock N2O emissions from 1978 to 2017. We developed scenarios to explore emissions mitigation potential and associated marginal abatement costs and social benefits. The average growth rate of China's livestock N2O emissions increased by 4.6% per year through 2006, falling sharply over 2007-2015 and gradually declining in 2017 due to a slowdown in population and meat-consumption growth rates. We estimate the technical mitigation potential of livestock N2O emissions in 2030 to be 7-21% (or 23.1-70.9 Gg N2O), with implementation costs of US$5.5 billion to US$6.0 billion. Priority regions for intervention were identified in the North China Plain, Northeast Plain and Lianghu Plain. Among mitigation opportunities, anaerobic digestion offers the greatest social benefit, while low crude protein feed is the most cost-effective option.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Xu
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Benjamin Z Houlton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Department of Global Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Yi Zheng
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
- Shenzhen Municipal Engineering Lab of Environmental IoT Technologies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Feng Zhou
- Sino-France Institute of Earth Systems Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Lin Ma
- Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Bin Li
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xu Liu
- College of Animal Science and Technology, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, China
| | - Geng Li
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
- Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China
- Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Function Hub, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China
| | - Haiyan Lu
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Feng Quan
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Shiyao Hu
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China
| | - Anping Chen
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
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