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Liu Y, Zhuang M, Liang X, Lam SK, Chen D, Malik A, Li M, Lenzen M, Zhang L, Zhang R, Zhang L, Hao Y. Localized nitrogen management strategies can halve fertilizer use in Chinese staple crop production. NATURE FOOD 2024:10.1038/s43016-024-01057-z. [PMID: 39333297 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01057-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/06/2024] [Indexed: 09/29/2024]
Abstract
Nitrogen (N) management is the key to achieving food security and environmental sustainability. Here we analyse N flows using a localized N management model for wheat, maize and rice in 1,690 Chinese counties, with a breakdown of multiple reactive N (Nr) loss pathways. Results show that the total N input for producing these three staple crops in China was 22.2 Tg N in 2015, of which 7.4 Tg N was harvested as grain N and 4.0 Tg N was Nr losses in the forms of NH3 (47%), NOx (10%), N2O (3%), and leaching and runoff (40%). By assuming a production level equivalent to that of the top 10% of counties with the highest N use efficiency and yields surpassing the regional average, we reveal the possibility of achieving national staple crop production targets while improving net ecosystem economic benefit in 2050 through a 49% reduction (10.4 Tg N) in synthetic N fertilizer inputs and a 52% decrease (2.9 Tg N) in Nr losses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yize Liu
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Minghao Zhuang
- State Key Laboratory of Nutrient Use and Management, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Xia Liang
- School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
- State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China, Field Scientific Observation and Experiment Station of Ecological Agriculture in Miyun, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Shu Kee Lam
- School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Deli Chen
- School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Arunima Malik
- ISA, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Discipline of Accounting, Sydney Business School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mengyu Li
- ISA, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Manfred Lenzen
- ISA, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Liying Zhang
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Rui Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Nutrient Use and Management, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
- National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Lixiao Zhang
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
| | - Yan Hao
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
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Liang W, Sivashankar P, Hua Y, Li W. Global food expenditure patterns diverge between low-income and high-income countries. NATURE FOOD 2024; 5:592-602. [PMID: 39030255 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01012-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/21/2024]
Abstract
Globalization, income growth and changing cultural trends are believed to prompt consumers in low-income countries to adopt the more affluent diet of high-income countries. This study investigates the convergence of food expenditure patterns worldwide, focusing on total food expenditure, raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages across more than 90 countries over the past decades. Contrary to prior belief, we find that food expenditure patterns of lower-income countries do not universally align with those of higher-income nations. This trend is evident across most raw food categories and ultra-processed foods and beverages, as the income level of a country continues to play a crucial role in determining its food expenditure patterns. Importantly, expenditure patterns offer estimates rather than a precise idea of dietary intake, reflecting consumer choices shaped by economic constraints rather than exact dietary consumption.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wanqi Liang
- College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China.
| | | | - Yunei Hua
- Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
| | - Wenying Li
- Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA.
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Billen G, Aguilera E, Einarsson R, Garnier J, Gingrich S, Grizzetti B, Lassaletta L, Le Noë J, Sanz-Cobena A. Beyond the Farm to Fork Strategy: Methodology for designing a European agro-ecological future. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 908:168160. [PMID: 37923272 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2023] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
The publication of the European Commission's Farm to Fork Strategy has sparked a heated debate between those who advocate the intensification of agriculture in the name of food security and those who recommend its de-intensification for environmental reasons. The design of quantified scenarios is a key approach to objectively evaluate the arguments of the two sides. To this end, we used the accounting methodology GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agri-Food Systems) to describe the agri-food system of Europe divided into 127 geographical units of similar agricultural area, in terms of nitrogen (N) fluxes across cropland, grassland, livestock, and human consumption. This analysis reveals, in current European agriculture, a high level of territorial specialization, a strong dependence on long distance trade, and environmental N losses amounting to about 14 TgN/yr, i.e. nearly 70 % of the annual N input (including N synthetic fertilizers, symbiotic N fixation, oxidized N deposition and import of food and feed). Based on the analysis of the yield-fertilization relationship of cropping systems at the scale of their full rotation cycle, and on a simplified model of livestock ingestion, excretion and production, we advanced the GRAFS methodology for prospective scenario design. Three scenarios for the European agri-food system were explored for 2050: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a scenario based on the measures considered by the EU Farm to Fork Strategy (F2F), and a fully agro-ecological scenario (AE). The results show that the F2F scenario reduces the dependence of Europe on imports of synthetic fertilizers and feed resources by 40 % as well as the environmental N losses by 30 %, but not to the level of its claimed ambitions as N lost to the environment still amounts to about 10 TgN/yr, i.e. 67 % of N inputs. Of the three scenarios studied, only in the AE scenario, involving the relocation of feed production, the generalization of organic crop rotations with N fixing legume crops, and a shift of agricultural production and food consumption toward less animal-based products, would Europe be able to dispense with N imports, still being able to export some cereals, meat, and milk products to the rest of the world, while halving today's reactive N emissions to the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Eduardo Aguilera
- CEIGRAM, ETSI Agronomica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
| | - Rasmus Einarsson
- CEIGRAM, ETSI Agronomica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Simone Gingrich
- Institute of Social Ecology (SEC), Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
| | - Bruna Grizzetti
- European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
| | - Luis Lassaletta
- CEIGRAM, ETSI Agronomica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Alberto Sanz-Cobena
- CEIGRAM, ETSI Agronomica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
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Xia L, Yan X. Maximizing Earth's feeding capacity. NATURE FOOD 2023; 4:353-354. [PMID: 37117604 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00736-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Longlong Xia
- State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Changshu National Agro-Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China.
| | - Xiaoyuan Yan
- State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Changshu National Agro-Ecosystem Observation and Research Station, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China.
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