Rice availability and stability in Africa under future socio-economic development and climatic change

Novel approach evaluating powdered raw and hydrothermally treated syenite as stonemeal for tropical environments: Potential effects on groundwater quality and agricultural suitability

Soluble fertilizers, particularly potash, are often prohibitively expensive or unavailable in Africa. Consequently, alternatives such as powdered silicate rocks, both raw and hydrothermally treated, are being explored as potential solutions, especially for acidic tropical soils. This study investigates the possible impacts of these rocks (syenite) on groundwater quality, which is a critical factor for agricultural activities. The powdered raw material underwent chemical and mineralogical characterization, including X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction, followed by quantitative evaluation of materials by scanning electron microscopy. Both raw and 46 hydrothermally treated materials were subjected to sequential leaching cycles (1, 24, and 192 h) using deionized water, and the resulting leachates were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. Parameters such as electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, soluble sodium percentage, sodium adsorption ratio, magnesium hazard, Kelly's ratio, and permeability index were also evaluated. Results from the 47 leachates indicated that 64 % of the samples exhibited excellent to acceptable water quality for irrigation purposes across all parameters. Conversely, 6 % to 13 % fell into the doubtful category, and 2 % to 24 % were classified as unsuitable. Consistency index and ratios of approximately 0.07 and 0.042, respectively, were determined using multi-criteria decision analysis (analytic hierarchy process: AHP), confirming the coherence of the decision and pairwise comparison matrix. The weighted coefficients for each criterion ranged from 0.06 to 0.2. Consequently, the optimal sample (Treatment 23) was identified, showing a hydrothermal temperature of 176 °C, a time of 3.9 h, a normality of 4.62, and a liquid-solid ratio of 0.24. This treatment met all high-water quality standards, including low salinity and sodium hazard, as corroborated by the US salinity laboratory and Wilcox diagrams. Furthermore, due to their nutrient release, low concentration of toxic elements, and effective buffering capacity (pH ∼ 10.6), these powdered syenites are suitable for application in acidic soils.

Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa

Africa produces around 60% of the rice the continent consumes, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of the domestic demand. Over the past 10 years, the rice-agricultural area increased nearly 40%, while average yield remained stagnant. Here we used a process-based crop simulation modelling approach combined with local weather, soil, and management datasets to evaluate the potential to increase rice production on existing cropland area in Africa and assess cropland expansion and rice imports by year 2050 for different scenarios of yield intensification. We find that Africa can avoid further increases in rice imports, and even reduce them, through a combination of cropland expansion following the historical trend together with closure of the current exploitable yield gap by half or more. Without substantial increase in rice yields, meeting future rice demand will require larger rice imports and/or land conversion than now.