Mathematical modeling of cancer immunotherapy for personalized clinical translation

Virtual patient analysis identifies strategies to improve the performance of predictive biomarkers for PD-1 blockade

Patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) show variable responses to PD-1 inhibition. Efficient patient selection by predictive biomarkers would be desirable, but is hindered by the limited performance of existing biomarkers. Here, we leveraged in-silico patient cohorts generated using a quantitative systems pharmacology model of metastatic TNBC, informed by transcriptomic and clinical data, to explore potential ways to improve patient selection. We tested 90 biomarker candidates, including various cellular and molecular species, by a cutoff-based biomarker testing algorithm combined with machine learning-based feature selection. Combinations of pre-treatment biomarkers improved the specificity compared to single biomarkers at the cost of reduced sensitivity. On the other hand, early on-treatment biomarkers, such as the relative change in tumor diameter from baseline measured at two weeks after treatment initiation, achieved remarkably higher sensitivity and specificity. Further, blood-based biomarkers had a comparable ability to tumor- or lymph node-based biomarkers in identifying a subset of responders, potentially suggesting a less invasive way for patient selection.

From immune equilibrium to tumor ecodynamics

Objectives

There is no theory to quantitatively describe the complex tumor ecosystem. At the same time, cancer immunotherapy is considered a revolution in oncology, but the methods used to describe tumors and the criteria used to evaluate efficacy are not keeping pace. The purpose of this study is to establish a new theory for quantitatively describing the tumor ecosystem, innovating the methods of tumor characterization, and establishing new efficacy evaluation criteria for cancer immunotherapy.

Methods

Based on the mathematization of immune equilibrium theory and the establishment of immunodynamics in a previous study, the method of reverse immunodynamics was used, namely, the immune braking force was regarded as the tumor ecological force and the immune force was regarded as the tumor ecological braking force, and the concept of momentum in physics was applied to the tumor ecosystem to establish a series of tumor ecodynamic equations. These equations were used to solve the fundamental and applied problems of the complex tumor ecosystem.

Results

A series of tumor ecodynamic equations were established. The tumor ecological momentum equations and their component factors could be used to distinguish disease progression, pseudoprogression, and hyperprogression in cancer immunotherapy. On this basis, the adjusted tumor momentum equations were established to achieve the equivalence of tumor activity (including immunosuppressive activity and metabolic activity) and tumor volume, which could be used to calculate individual disease remission rate and establish new efficacy evaluation criteria (ieRECIST) for immunotherapy of solid tumor based on tumor ecodynamics. At the same time, the concept of moving cube-to-force square ratio and its expression were proposed to calculate the area under the curve of tumor ecological braking force of blood required to achieve an individual disease remission rate when the adjusted tumor ecological momentum was known.

Conclusions

A new theory termed tumor ecodynamics emphasizing both tumor activity and tumor volume is established to solve a series of basic and applied problems in the complex tumor ecosystem. It can be predicted that the future will be the era of cancer immune ecotherapy that targets the entire tumor ecosystem.

Designing combination therapies for cancer treatment: application of a mathematical framework combining CAR T-cell immunotherapy and targeted radionuclide therapy

Introduction

Cancer combination treatments involving immunotherapies with targeted radiation therapy are at the forefront of treating cancers. However, dosing and scheduling of these therapies pose a challenge. Mathematical models provide a unique way of optimizing these therapies.

Methods

Using a preclinical model of multiple myeloma as an example, we demonstrate the capability of a mathematical model to combine these therapies to achieve maximum response, defined as delay in tumor growth. Data from mice studies with targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cell monotherapies and combinations with different intervals between them was used to calibrate mathematical model parameters. The dependence of progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and the time to minimum tumor burden on dosing and scheduling was evaluated. Different dosing and scheduling schemes were evaluated to maximize the PFS and optimize timings of TRT and CAR-T cell therapies.

Results

Therapy intervals that were too close or too far apart are shown to be detrimental to the therapeutic efficacy, as TRT too close to CAR-T cell therapy results in radiation related CAR-T cell killing while the therapies being too far apart result in tumor regrowth, negatively impacting tumor control and survival. We show that splitting a dose of TRT or CAR-T cells when administered in combination is advantageous only if the first therapy delivered can produce a significant benefit as a monotherapy.

Discussion

Mathematical models are crucial tools for optimizing the delivery of cancer combination therapy regimens with application along the lines of achieving cure, maximizing survival or minimizing toxicity.

Dose optimization of an adjuvanted peptide-based personalized neoantigen melanoma vaccine

The advancements in next-generation sequencing have made it possible to effectively detect somatic mutations, which has led to the development of personalized neoantigen cancer vaccines that are tailored to the unique variants found in a patient's cancer. These vaccines can provide significant clinical benefit by leveraging the patient's immune response to eliminate malignant cells. However, determining the optimal vaccine dose for each patient is a challenge due to the heterogeneity of tumors. To address this challenge, we formulate a mathematical dose optimization problem based on a previous mathematical model that encompasses the immune response cascade produced by the vaccine in a patient. We propose an optimization approach to identify the optimal personalized vaccine doses, considering a fixed vaccination schedule, while simultaneously minimizing the overall number of tumor and activated T cells. To validate our approach, we perform in silico experiments on six real-world clinical trial patients with advanced melanoma. We compare the results of applying an optimal vaccine dose to those of a suboptimal dose (the dose used in the clinical trial and its deviations). Our simulations reveal that an optimal vaccine regimen of higher initial doses and lower final doses may lead to a reduction in tumor size for certain patients. Our mathematical dose optimization offers a promising approach to determining an optimal vaccine dose for each patient and improving clinical outcomes.

Mathematical Modeling Support for Lung Cancer Therapy-A Short Review

The paper presents a review of models that can be used to describe dynamics of lung cancer growth and its response to treatment at both cell population and intracellular processes levels. To address the latter, models of signaling pathways associated with cellular responses to treatment are overviewed. First, treatment options for lung cancer are discussed, and main signaling pathways and regulatory networks are briefly reviewed. Then, approaches used to model specific therapies are discussed. Following that, models of intracellular processes that are crucial in responses to therapies are presented. The paper is concluded with a discussion of the applicability of the presented approaches in the context of lung cancer.

Targeting alternative splicing in cancer immunotherapy

Tumor immunotherapy has made great progress in cancer treatment but still faces several challenges, such as a limited number of targetable antigens and varying responses among patients. Alternative splicing (AS) is an essential process for the maturation of nearly all mammalian mRNAs. Recent studies show that AS contributes to expanding cancer-specific antigens and modulating immunogenicity, making it a promising solution to the above challenges. The organoid technology preserves the individual immune microenvironment and reduces the time/economic costs of the experiment model, facilitating the development of splicing-based immunotherapy. Here, we summarize three critical roles of AS in immunotherapy: resources for generating neoantigens, targets for immune-therapeutic modulation, and biomarkers to guide immunotherapy options. Subsequently, we highlight the benefits of adopting organoids to develop AS-based immunotherapies. Finally, we discuss the current challenges in studying AS-based immunotherapy in terms of existing bioinformatics algorithms and biological technologies.

Leveraging high-resolution omics data for predicting responses and adverse events to immune checkpoint inhibitors

A long-standing goal of personalized and precision medicine is to enable accurate prediction of the outcomes of a given treatment regimen for patients harboring a disease. Currently, many clinical trials fail to meet their endpoints due to underlying factors in the patient population that contribute to either poor responses to the drug of interest or to treatment-related adverse events. Identifying these factors beforehand and correcting for them can lead to an increased success of clinical trials. Comprehensive and large-scale data gathering efforts in biomedicine by omics profiling of the healthy and diseased individuals has led to a treasure-trove of host, disease and environmental factors that contribute to the effectiveness of drugs aiming to treat disease. With increasing omics data, artificial intelligence allows an in-depth analysis of big data and offers a wide range of applications for real-world clinical use, including improved patient selection and identification of actionable targets for companion therapeutics for improved translatability across more patients. As a blueprint for complex drug-disease-host interactions, we here discuss the challenges of utilizing omics data for predicting responses and adverse events in cancer immunotherapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The omics-based methodologies for improving patient outcomes as in the ICI case have also been applied across a wide-range of complex disease settings, exemplifying the use of omics for in-depth disease profiling and clinical use.

Mechanistic modeling of anti-microRNA-155 therapy combinations in lung cancer

To improve treatment outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), it is crucial to identify treatment strategies with the potential to exhibit drug synergism. This can lower the required effective dose, reducing exposure to drugs and associated toxicities, while improving treatment efficacy. In previous studies, drugs targeting the microRNA-155 or PD-L1 have been promising in restraining NSCLC tumor growth. We have developed a mathematical model that simulates the in vivo pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the novel nanoparticle-delivered anti-microRNA-155 for potential use with standard-of-care drug atezolizumab for NSCLC. Through modeling and simulation, we identified possible drug synergism between the two drugs that holds promise to improve tumor response at reduced drug exposure.Clinical Relevance-Identifying the possibility of drug synergism for an anti-microRNA-155 based nanotherapeutic with standard-of-care immunotherapy to improve lung cancer treatment outcomes.