Residential mobility and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: an ecological study

The Association Between Childhood Leukemia and Population Mixing: An Artifact of Focusing on Clusters?

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Background:

Studies investigating the population-mixing hypothesis in childhood leukemia principally use two analytical approaches: (1) nonrandom selection of areas according to specific characteristics, followed by comparisons of their incidence of childhood leukemia with that expected based on the national average; and (2) regression analyses of region-wide data to identify characteristics associated with the incidence of childhood leukemia. These approaches have generated contradictory results. We compare these approaches using observed and simulated data.

Methods:

We generated 10,000 simulated regions using the correlation structure and distributions from a United Kingdom dataset. We simulated cases using a Poisson distribution with the incidence rate set to the national average assuming the null hypothesis that only population size drives the number of cases. Selection of areas within each simulated region was based on characteristics considered responsible for elevated infection rates (population density and inward migration) and/or elevated leukemia rates. We calculated effect estimates for 10,000 simulations and compared results to corresponding observed data analyses.

Results:

When the selection of areas for analysis is based on apparent clusters of childhood leukemia, biased assessments occur; the estimated 5-year incidence of childhood leukemia ranged between zero and eight per 10,000 children in contrast to the simulated two cases per 10,000 children, similar to the observed data. Performing analyses on region-wide data avoids these biases.

Conclusions:

Studies using nonrandom selection to investigate the association between childhood leukemia and population mixing are likely to have generated biased findings. Future studies can avoid such bias using a region-wide analytical strategy. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B431.

Risk of Childhood Cancer and Socio-economic Disparities: Results of the French Nationwide Study Geocap 2002-2010

BACKGROUND

Socio-economic status is related to many life style and environmental factors, some of which have been suggested to influence the risk of childhood cancer. Studies requiring subject participation are usually hampered by selection of more educated parents. To prevent such bias, we used unselected nationwide Geographical Information System (GIS)-based registry data, to investigate the influence of socio-economic disparities on the risk of childhood cancer.

METHODS

The Geocap study included all French residents diagnosed with cancer aged up to 15 years over the period 2002-2010 (15 111 cases) and 45 000 contemporaneous controls representative of the childhood population. Area socio-economic characteristics used to calculate the European Deprivation Index (EDI) were based on census data collected on the fine scale of the Merged Islet for Statistical Information (IRIS).

RESULTS

Overall, the risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) was lower in the most deprived quintile than in the other quintiles of EDI (OR_Q5vs<Q5 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73, 0.88)). The odds ratio for all the other cancers taken together was close to the null (OR_Q5vs<Q5 0.99 (95% CI 0.94, 1.04)).

CONCLUSION

Living in the most deprived areas was inversely associated with the risk of ALL in childhood. There was no indication that the risk of childhood cancer of any site could be increased by deprivation. Life style or environmental factors potentially underlying the association need further investigation.

An examination, with a meta-analysis, of studies of childhood leukaemia in relation to population mixing

Background:

Marked influxes of people into rural areas, termed rural population mixing (PM), have been associated with excesses of childhood leukaemia (CL), consistent with mini-epidemics of a mainly immunising, subclinical infection to which CL is a rare response. For such situations of rural PM would promote contacts between infected and susceptible individuals, the latter tending to have a higher than average prevalence in rural or isolated areas. Confusion has arisen from some workers applying the term PM to non-rural situations lacking known recent change.

Methods:

Available PM studies using the original definition of influxes were examined, a meta-analysis carried out of studies of CL in relation to exposure to high levels of rural PM, and also a detailed analysis by age group.

Results:

The meta-analysis of 17 studies shows a significant CL excess in association with rural PM: overall relative risk (RR) at ages 0–14: 1.57; 95% confidence interval 1.44–1.72; at 0–4 years 1.72 (1.54–1.91). This contrasts with the absence of an excess of CL in similarly exposed urban areas (RR 1.00; 0.93–1.07), pointing to a high level of immunity there. The mixed results of studies using other definitions of PM were summarised. The excess associated with rural PM below age 2 years (RR 1.51; 1.17, 1.92) was not appreciably different from that at later childhood ages.

Conclusion:

Much of the inconsistency among studies ostensibly about CL and PM reflects the use of definitions other than that originally proposed. The broad similarity of the CL excess below age 2 with that at older childhood ages is inconsistent with the Greaves’ delayed infection hypothesis, since any infection underlying the former is difficult to consider as delayed.

Evidence for under-diagnosis of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in poorer communities within Great Britain

Background:

Recorded incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia tends to be lower in poorer communities. A ‘pre-emptive infection hypothesis’ proposes that some children with leukaemia die from infection without diagnosis of leukaemia. Various different blood abnormalities can occur in untreated leukaemia.

Methods:

Logistic regression was used to compare pre-treatment blood counts among children aged 1–13 years at recruitment to national clinical trials for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia during 1980–2002 (N=5601), grouped by address at diagnosis within Great Britain into quintiles of the 1991 Carstairs deprivation index. Children combining severe neutropenia (risk of serious infection) with relatively normal haemoglobin and platelet counts (lack of pallor and bleeding) were postulated to be at risk of dying from infection without leukaemia being suspected. A deficit of these children among diagnosed patients from poorer communities was predicted.

Results:

As predicted, there was a deficit of children at risk of non-diagnosis (two-sided P_trend=0.004; N=2009), and an excess of children with pallor (P_trend=0.045; N=5535) and bleeding (P_trend=0.036; N=5541), among cases from poorer communities.

Conclusion:

Under-diagnosis in poorer communities may have contributed to socioeconomic variation in recorded childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia incidence within Great Britain, and elsewhere. Implications for clinical practice and epidemiological studies should be considered.

Childhood leukaemia and socioeconomic status in England and Wales 1976-2005: evidence of higher incidence in relatively affluent communities persists over time

BACKGROUND

Record-based studies have generally reported association of higher childhood leukaemia incidence with higher socioeconomic status (SES), but recent findings are less consistent.

METHODS

We examined records from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours for evidence of this association in England and Wales during 1976-2005. All eligible leukaemia registrations (N=11940) were grouped by year of diagnosis in decades centred on census years 1981, 1991 and 2001 (N=3748, 3922, 4270, respectively). Using data from the census appropriate to the decade, SES for each case was measured by the child-population-weighted quintile of the Carstairs deprivation index of the census ward containing the address at diagnosis.

RESULTS

In each decade, the age-standardised leukaemia rate in the poorest quintile was ∼90% of the rate in the most affluent. Using Poisson regression, the age-adjusted rate ratio per quintile decrease in SES was 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.94-0.98; P<0.001 for trend) in 1976-1985, 0.97 (0.95-0.99; P=0.008) in 1986-1995 and 0.97 (0.95-0.99; P=0.009) in 1996-2005. Similar association was evident for lymphoid leukaemia, the major subgroup (N=9588 in total), but not for acute myeloid (N=1868) or other/unspecified leukaemia (N=484).

CONCLUSION

Reported childhood leukaemia incidence in England and Wales continues to be higher in relatively affluent communities. Possible explanations include under-diagnosis of leukaemia in children from poorer communities, and/or association of higher SES with hypothesised risk factors, such as population mixing and delayed exposure to infection.

Childhood cancer registration in Britain: capture-recapture estimates of completeness of ascertainment

Background:

Completeness of ascertainment is a very important aspect of cancer registration. There is no recent published estimate for childhood cancer in Britain.

Methods:

We estimated completeness of ascertainment by the National Registry of Childhood Tumours for cancer diagnosed under age 15 years in residents of Britain during 2003–04. Stratified two-source capture-recapture was applied to notifications from general cancer registries (CRs) and specialist clinicians. Variation in notification patterns was assessed by logistic regression. Results were verified by cross-checking with Hospital Episode Statistics for leukaemia patients from England born in 1998 and diagnosed before 2005.

Results:

CRs notified 92–96% of registrations, and specialist clinicians 93%. Notification patterns varied slightly according to registry region, age at diagnosis, diagnostic group, socioeconomic status, and whether the patient had died. Irrespective of stratification by these factors, the overall completeness estimate was 99–100% (assuming independence of sources). Estimated completeness was at least 99% within all subgroups, except for one region (Thames 98–99%) and two small diagnostic groups (germ-cell and gonadal cancer 98–99%, melanoma and non-skin cancer 97–98%).

Interpretation:

The independence assumption cannot be fully justified, as both sources used records from treatment centres. With this caveat, ascertainment of recently diagnosed childhood cancer in Britain appears to be virtually complete.

Aetiology of childhood leukaemia

The acute leukaemias account for about 30% of all malignancy seen in childhood across the Western world. A peak incidence of precursor B cell ALL has emerged as socio-economic conditions have improved in countries worldwide. From twin studies and the use of neonatal blood spots it has been possible to back track the first initiating genetic events within critical haemopoietic cells to foetal development in utero for most precursor B cell ALL and some cases of AML. These events may occur as part of normal foetal development. Whether other factors (environmental or constitutional) are involved to increase the chance of these first genetic changes happening is unclear. For some leukaemias (e.g. infant MLL positive ALL) the first event appears adequate to create a malignant clone but for the majority of ALL and AML further 'genetic' changes are required, probably postnatal. Many environmental factors have been proposed as causative for leukaemia but only ionising irradiation and certain chemicals, e.g. benzene and cytotoxics (alkylators and topoisomerase II inhibitors) have been confirmed and then principally for acute myeloid leukaemia. It appears increasingly likely that delayed, dysregulated responses to 'common' infectious agents play a major part in the conversion of pre-leukaemic clones into overt precursor B cell ALL, the most common form of childhood leukaemia. Constitutional polymorphic alleleic variants in immune response genes (especially the HLA Class II proteins) and cytokines may play a role in determining the type of immune response. High penetrance germ-line mutations are involved in only about 5% of childhood leukaemias (more in AML than ALL). There is little evidence to support any role of viral transformation in causation, unlike in animals. Other environmental factors for which some evidence exists include non-ionising electromagnetic radiation and electric fields, although their mode of action in leukaemogenesis remains unclear. There is no single cause for childhood leukaemia and for most individuals a combination of factors appears to be necessary; all involving gene-environment interactions. To date few clear preventative measures have emerged, except the complete avoidance of first trimester X-rays in pregnancy; a healthy diet with adequate oral folic acid intake both preconception and early in pregnancy; and the early exposure of children to other children outside the home to facilitate stimulation and maturation of the natural immune system. Here then are clear echoes of the "hygiene hypothesis" regarding the initiation of allergies, autoimmune disease and type I diabetes mellitus in children and young people.

Population mixing, socioeconomic status and incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in England and Wales: analysis by census ward

In this population-based study of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) diagnosed among children aged under 15 years in England and Wales during 1986-1995, we analysed incidence at census ward level in relation to a range of variables from the 1991 census, which could be relevant to theories of infectious aetiology. 'Population-mixing' measures, used as surrogates for quantity and diversity of infections entering the community, were calculated from census data on the origins and destinations of migrants in the year before the census. Incidence at ages 1-4 years tended independently to be higher in rural wards, to increase with the diversity of origin wards from which in-migrants had moved during the year before the census, and to be lower in the most deprived areas as categorised by the Carstairs index. This last association was much weaker when urban/rural status and in-migrants' diversity were allowed for. There was no evidence of association with population mixing or deprivation for ALL diagnosed at ages 0 or 5-14 years. The apparent specificity to the young childhood age group suggests that these associations are particularly marked for precursor B-cell ALL, with the disease more likely to occur when delayed exposure to infection leads to increased immunological stress, as predicted by Greaves. The association with diversity of incomers, especially in rural areas, is also consistent with the higher incidence of leukaemia predicted by Kinlen, where population mixing results in below average herd immunity to an infectious agent.

Childhood leukaemia and socioeconomic status: what is the evidence?

The objectives of this systematic review are to summarise the current literature on socioeconomic status (SES) and the risk of childhood leukaemia, to highlight methodological problems and formulate recommendations for future research. Starting from the systematic review of Poole et al. (Socioeconomic status and childhood leukaemia: a review. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2006;35(2):370-384.), an electronic literature search was performed covering August 2002-April 2008. It showed that (1) the results are heterogeneous, with no clear evidence to support a relation between SES and childhood leukaemia; (2) a number of factors, most importantly selection bias, might explain inconsistencies between studies; (3) there is some support for an association between SES at birth (rather than later in childhood) and childhood leukaemia and (4) if there are any associations, these are weak, limited to the most extreme SES groups (the 10-20% most or least deprived). This makes it unlikely that they would act as strong confounders in research addressing associations between other exposures and childhood leukaemia. Future research should minimise case and control selection bias, distinguish between different SES measures and leukaemia subtypes and consider timing of exposures and cancer outcomes.