Dynamically correlated mutations drive human Influenza A evolution

"Mutation blacklist" and "mutation whitelist" of SARS-CoV-2

Over the past two years, scientists throughout the world have completed more than 6 million SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences. Today, the number of SARS-CoV-2 genomes exceeds the total number of all other viral genomes. These genomes are a record of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the human host, and provide information on the emergence of mutations. In this study, analysis of these sequenced genomes identified 296,728 de novo mutations (DNMs), and found that six types of base substitutions reached saturation in the sequenced genome population. Based on this analysis, a "mutation blacklist" of SARS-CoV-2 was compiled. The loci on the "mutation blacklist" are highly conserved, and these mutations likely have detrimental effects on virus survival, replication, and transmission. This information is valuable for SARS-CoV-2 research on gene function, vaccine design, and drug development. Through association analysis of DNMs and viral transmission rates, we identified 185 DNMs that positively correlated with the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate, and these DNMs where classified as the "mutation whitelist" of SARS-CoV-2. The mutations on the "mutation whitelist" are beneficial for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and could therefore be used to evaluate the transmissibility of new variants. The occurrence of mutations and the evolution of viruses are dynamic processes. To more effectively monitor the mutations and variants of SARS-CoV-2, we built a SARS-CoV-2 mutation and variant monitoring and pre-warning system (MVMPS), which can monitor the occurrence and development of mutations and variants of SARS-CoV-2, as well as provide pre-warning for the prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 (https://www.omicx.cn/). Additionally, this system could be used in real-time to update the "mutation whitelist" and "mutation blacklist" of SARS-CoV-2.

Immunity-induced criticality of the genotype network of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin

Seasonal influenza kills hundreds of thousands every year, with multiple constantly changing strains in circulation at any given time. A high mutation rate enables the influenza virus to evade recognition by the human immune system, including immunity acquired through past infection and vaccination. Here, we capture the genetic similarity of influenza strains and their evolutionary dynamics with genotype networks. We show that the genotype networks of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin are characterized by heavy-tailed distributions of module sizes and connectivity indicative of critical behavior. We argue that (i) genotype networks are driven by mutation and host immunity to explore a subspace of networks predictable in structure and (ii) genotype networks provide an underlying structure necessary to capture the rich dynamics of multistrain epidemic models. In particular, inclusion of strain-transcending immunity in epidemic models is dependent upon the structure of an underlying genotype network. This interplay is consistent with self-organized criticality where the epidemic dynamics of influenza locates critical regions of its genotype network. We conclude that this interplay between disease dynamics and network structure might be key for future network analysis of pathogen evolution and realistic multistrain epidemic models.

Next-generation T cell-activating vaccination increases influenza virus mutation prevalence

To determine the potential for viral adaptation to T cell responses, we probed the full influenza virus genome by next-generation sequencing directly ex vivo from infected mice, in the context of an experimental T cell-based vaccine, an H5N1-based viral vectored vaccinia vaccine Wyeth/IL-15/5Flu, versus the current standard-of-care, seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) and unvaccinated conditions. Wyeth/IL-15/5Flu vaccination was coincident with increased mutation incidence and frequency across the influenza genome; however, mutations were not enriched within T cell epitope regions, but high allele frequency mutations within conserved hemagglutinin stem regions and PB2 mammalian adaptive mutations arose. Depletion of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cell subsets led to reduced frequency of mutants in vaccinated mice; therefore, vaccine-mediated T cell responses were important drivers of virus diversification. Our findings suggest that Wyeth/IL-15/5Flu does not generate T cell escape mutants but increases stochastic events for virus adaptation by stringent bottlenecks.

Mutation and Epistasis in Influenza Virus Evolution

Influenza remains a persistent public health challenge, because the rapid evolution of influenza viruses has led to marginal vaccine efficacy, antiviral resistance, and the annual emergence of novel strains. This evolvability is driven, in part, by the virus's capacity to generate diversity through mutation and reassortment. Because many new traits require multiple mutations and mutations are frequently combined by reassortment, epistatic interactions between mutations play an important role in influenza virus evolution. While mutation and epistasis are fundamental to the adaptability of influenza viruses, they also constrain the evolutionary process in important ways. Here, we review recent work on mutational effects and epistasis in influenza viruses.

Immune responses in influenza A virus and human coronavirus infections: an ongoing battle between the virus and host

Respiratory viruses, especially influenza A viruses and coronaviruses such as MERS-CoV, represent continuing global threats to human health. Despite significant advances, much needs to be learned. Recent studies in virology and immunology have improved our understanding of the role of the immune system in protection and in the pathogenesis of these infections and of co-evolution of viruses and their hosts. These findings, together with sophisticated molecular structure analyses, omics tools and computer-based models, have helped delineate the interaction between respiratory viruses and the host immune system, which will facilitate the development of novel treatment strategies and vaccines with enhanced efficacy.

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.

Identification of epistatic mutations and insights into the evolution of the influenza virus using a mass-based protein phylogenetic approach

A mass-based protein phylogenetic approach developed in this laboratory has been applied to study mutation trends and identify consecutive or near-consecutive mutations typically associated with positive epistasis. While epistasis is thought to occur commonly during the evolution of viruses, the extent of epistasis in influenza, and its role in the evolution of immune escape and drug resistant mutants, remains to be systematically investigated. Here putative epistatic mutations within H3 hemagglutinin in type A influenza are identified where leading parent mutations were found to predominate within reported antigenic sites of the protein. Frequent subsequent mutations resided exclusively in different antigenic regions, providing the virus with a possible immune escape mechanism, or at other remote sites that drive beneficial protein structural and functional change. The results also enable a "small steps" evolutionary model to be proposed where the more frequent consecutive, or near-consecutive, non-conservative mutations exhibited less structural, and thus functional, change. This favours the evolutionary survival of the virus over mutations associated with more substantive change that may cause or risk its own extinction.

A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains

Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens.