Rapid Discrimination Among Putative Mechanistic Models of Biochemical Systems

Phenotype Design Space Provides a Mechanistic Framework Relating Molecular Parameters to Phenotype Diversity Available for Selection

Two long-standing challenges in theoretical population genetics and evolution are predicting the distribution of phenotype diversity generated by mutation and available for selection, and determining the interaction of mutation, selection and drift to characterize evolutionary equilibria and dynamics. More fundamental for enabling such predictions is the current inability to causally link genotype to phenotype. There are three major mechanistic mappings required for such a linking - genetic sequence to kinetic parameters of the molecular processes, kinetic parameters to biochemical system phenotypes, and biochemical phenotypes to organismal phenotypes. This article introduces a theoretical framework, the Phenotype Design Space (PDS) framework, for addressing these challenges by focusing on the mapping of kinetic parameters to biochemical system phenotypes. It provides a quantitative theory whose key features include (1) a mathematically rigorous definition of phenotype based on biochemical kinetics, (2) enumeration of the full phenotypic repertoire, and (3) functional characterization of each phenotype independent of its context-dependent selection or fitness contributions. This framework is built on Design Space methods that relate system phenotypes to genetically determined parameters and environmentally determined variables. It also has the potential to automate prediction of phenotype-specific mutation rate constants and equilibrium distributions of phenotype diversity in microbial populations undergoing steady-state exponential growth, which provides an ideal reference to which more realistic cases can be compared. Although the framework is quite general and flexible, the details will undoubtedly differ for different functions, organisms and contexts. Here a hypothetical case study involving a small molecular system, a primordial circadian clock, is used to introduce this framework and to illustrate its use in a particular case. The framework is built on fundamental biochemical kinetics. Thus, the foundation is based on linear algebra and reasonable physical assumptions, which provide numerous opportunities for experimental testing and further elaboration to deal with complex multicellular organisms that are currently beyond its scope. The discussion provides a comparison of results from the PDS framework with those from other approaches in theoretical population genetics.

Predictive nonlinear modeling of malignant myelopoiesis and tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a blood cancer characterized by dysregulated production of maturing myeloid cells driven by the product of the Philadelphia chromosome, the BCR-ABL1 tyrosine kinase. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) have proved effective in treating CML, but there is still a cohort of patients who do not respond to TKI therapy even in the absence of mutations in the BCR-ABL1 kinase domain that mediate drug resistance. To discover novel strategies to improve TKI therapy in CML, we developed a nonlinear mathematical model of CML hematopoiesis that incorporates feedback control and lineage branching. Cell-cell interactions were constrained using an automated model selection method together with previous observations and new in vivo data from a chimeric BCR-ABL1 transgenic mouse model of CML. The resulting quantitative model captures the dynamics of normal and CML cells at various stages of the disease and exhibits variable responses to TKI treatment, consistent with those of CML patients. The model predicts that an increase in the proportion of CML stem cells in the bone marrow would decrease the tendency of the disease to respond to TKI therapy, in concordance with clinical data and confirmed experimentally in mice. The model further suggests that, under our assumed similarities between normal and leukemic cells, a key predictor of refractory response to TKI treatment is an increased maximum probability of self-renewal of normal hematopoietic stem cells. We use these insights to develop a clinical prognostic criterion to predict the efficacy of TKI treatment and design strategies to improve treatment response. The model predicts that stimulating the differentiation of leukemic stem cells while applying TKI therapy can significantly improve treatment outcomes.

Mechanistic Modeling of Biochemical Systems without A Priori Parameter Values Using the Design Space Toolbox v.3.0

Mechanistic models of biochemical systems provide a rigorous description of biological phenomena. They are indispensable for making predictions and elucidating biological design principles. To date, mathematical analysis and characterization of these models encounter a bottleneck consisting of large numbers of unknown parameter values. Here, we introduce the Design Space Toolbox v.3.0 (DST3), a software implementation of the Design Space formalism enabling mechanistic modeling without requiring previous knowledge of parameter values. This is achieved by using a phenotype-centric modeling approach, in which the system is first decomposed into a series of biochemical phenotypes. Parameter values realizing phenotypes of interest are subsequently predicted. DST3 represents the most generally applicable implementation of the Design Space formalism and offers unique advantages over earlier versions. By expanding the Design Space formalism and streamlining its distribution, DST3 represents a valuable tool for elucidating biological design principles and designing novel synthetic circuits.

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DST3 extends the Design Space formalism by identifying additional phenotypes

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Additional phenotypes arise from cycles, conservations, and metabolic imbalances

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DST3 enables mechanistic modeling without previous knowledge of parameter values

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It fully unlocks the potential of the novel phenotype-centric modeling strategy

Design Space Toolbox V2: Automated Software Enabling a Novel Phenotype-Centric Modeling Strategy for Natural and Synthetic Biological Systems

Mathematical models of biochemical systems provide a means to elucidate the link between the genotype, environment, and phenotype. A subclass of mathematical models, known as mechanistic models, quantitatively describe the complex non-linear mechanisms that capture the intricate interactions between biochemical components. However, the study of mechanistic models is challenging because most are analytically intractable and involve large numbers of system parameters. Conventional methods to analyze them rely on local analyses about a nominal parameter set and they do not reveal the vast majority of potential phenotypes possible for a given system design. We have recently developed a new modeling approach that does not require estimated values for the parameters initially and inverts the typical steps of the conventional modeling strategy. Instead, this approach relies on architectural features of the model to identify the phenotypic repertoire and then predict values for the parameters that yield specific instances of the system that realize desired phenotypic characteristics. Here, we present a collection of software tools, the Design Space Toolbox V2 based on the System Design Space method, that automates (1) enumeration of the repertoire of model phenotypes, (2) prediction of values for the parameters for any model phenotype, and (3) analysis of model phenotypes through analytical and numerical methods. The result is an enabling technology that facilitates this radically new, phenotype-centric, modeling approach. We illustrate the power of these new tools by applying them to a synthetic gene circuit that can exhibit multi-stability. We then predict values for the system parameters such that the design exhibits 2, 3, and 4 stable steady states. In one example, inspection of the basins of attraction reveals that the circuit can count between three stable states by transient stimulation through one of two input channels: a positive channel that increases the count, and a negative channel that decreases the count. This example shows the power of these new automated methods to rapidly identify behaviors of interest and efficiently predict parameter values for their realization. These tools may be applied to understand complex natural circuitry and to aid in the rational design of synthetic circuits.