A universal indicator of critical state transitions in noisy complex networked systems

Free Will as Defined by the Constrained Disorder Principle: a Restricted, Mandatory, Personalized, Regulated Process for Decision-Making

The concept of free will has challenged physicists, biologists, philosophers, and other professionals for decades. The constrained disorder principle (CDP) is a fundamental law that defines systems according to their inherent variability. It provides mechanisms for adapting to dynamic environments. This work examines the CDP's perspective of free will concerning various free will theories. Per the CDP, systems lack intentions, and the "freedom" to select and act is built into their design. The "freedom" is embedded within the response range determined by the boundaries of the systems' variability. This built-in and self-generating mechanism enables systems to cope with perturbations. According to the CDP, neither dualism nor an unknown metaphysical apparatus dictates choices. Brain variability facilitates cognitive adaptation to complex, unpredictable situations across various environments. Human behaviors and decisions reflect an underlying physical variability in the brain and other organs for dealing with unpredictable noises. Choices are not predetermined but reflect the ongoing adaptation processes to dynamic prssu½res. Malfunctions and disease states are characterized by inappropriate variability, reflecting an inability to respond adequately to perturbations. Incorporating CDP-based interventions can overcome malfunctions and disease states and improve decision processes. CDP-based second-generation artificial intelligence platforms improve interventions and are being evaluated to augment personal development, wellness, and health.

The Resilience and Vulnerability of Human Brain Networks Across the Lifespan

Resilience, the ability for a system to maintain its basic functionality when suffering from lesions, is a critical property for human brain, especially in the brain aging process. This study adopted a novel metric of network resilience, the Resilience Index (RI), to assess human brain resilience with three different lifespan datasets. Based on the structural brain networks constructed from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), we observed an inverted-U relationship between RI and age, that is, RI increased during development and early adulthood, reached a peak at about 35 years old, and then decreased during aging, which suggested that brain resilience could be quantified by RI. Furthermore, we studied brain network vulnerability by the decreases in RI when virtual lesions occurred to nodes (i.e., brain regions) or edges (i.e., structural brain connectivity). We found that the strong edges were markedly vulnerable, and the homotopic edges were the most prominent representatives of vulnerable edges. In other words, an arbitrary attack on homotopic edges would have a high probability to degrade brain network resilience. These findings suggest the change of human brain resilience across the lifespan and provide a new perspective for exploring human brain vulnerability.

Using persistent homology as preprocessing of early warning signals for critical transition in flood

Flood early warning systems (FLEWSs) contribute remarkably to reducing economic and life losses during a flood. The theory of critical slowing down (CSD) has been successfully used as a generic indicator of early warning signals in various fields. A new tool called persistent homology (PH) was recently introduced for data analysis. PH employs a qualitative approach to assess a data set and provide new information on the topological features of the data set. In the present paper, we propose the use of PH as a preprocessing step to achieve a FLEWS through CSD. We test our proposal on water level data of the Kelantan River, which tends to flood nearly every year. The results suggest that the new information obtained by PH exhibits CSD and, therefore, can be used as a signal for a FLEWS. Further analysis of the signal, we manage to establish an early warning signal for ten of the twelve flood events recorded in the river; the two other events are detected on the first day of the flood. Finally, we compare our results with those of a FLEWS constructed directly from water level data and find that FLEWS via PH creates fewer false alarms than the conventional technique.

Node-Level Resilience Loss in Dynamic Complex Networks

In an increasingly connected world, the resilience of networked dynamical systems is important in the fields of ecology, economics, critical infrastructures, and organizational behaviour. Whilst we understand small-scale resilience well, our understanding of large-scale networked resilience is limited. Recent research in predicting the effective network-level resilience pattern has advanced our understanding of the coupling relationship between topology and dynamics. However, a method to estimate the resilience of an individual node within an arbitrarily large complex network governed by non-linear dynamics is still lacking. Here, we develop a sequential mean-field approach and show that after 1-3 steps of estimation, the node-level resilience function can be represented with up to 98% accuracy. This new understanding compresses the higher dimensional relationship into a one-dimensional dynamic for tractable understanding, mapping the relationship between local dynamics and the statistical properties of network topology. By applying this framework to case studies in ecology and biology, we are able to not only understand the general resilience pattern of the network, but also identify the nodes at the greatest risk of failure and predict the impact of perturbations. These findings not only shed new light on the causes of resilience loss from cascade effects in networked systems, but the identification capability could also be used to prioritize protection, quantify risk, and inform the design of new system architectures.

Traceability and dynamical resistance of precursor of extreme events

Extreme events occur in a variety of natural, technical, and societal systems and often have catastrophic consequences. Their low-probability, high-impact nature has recently triggered research into improving our understanding of generating mechanisms, providing early warnings as well as developing control strategies. For the latter to be effective, knowledge about dynamical resistance of a system prior to an extreme event is of utmost importance. Here we introduce a novel time-series-based and non-perturbative approach to efficiently monitor dynamical resistance and apply it to high-resolution observations of brain activities from 43 subjects with uncontrollable epileptic seizures. We gain surprising insights into pre-seizure dynamical resistance of brains that also provide important clues for success or failure of measures for seizure prevention. The novel resistance monitoring perspective advances our understanding of precursor dynamics in complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in refining control strategies.

Detecting critical transitions in the case of moderate or strong noise by binomial moments

Detecting critical transitions in the case of moderate or strong noise (collectively referred to as big noise) is challenging, since such noise can make a critical transition point far from the bifurcation point, leading to the failure of traditional small-noise methods. To handle this tough issue, we first transform a generic noisy system into a linear set of binomial moment equations (BMEs). Then, we can solve a closed set of BMEs obtained by truncation and use the resulting binomial moments to reconstruct a joint probability distribution of the state variables of the original system. Third, we derive a leading indicator from the closed set of BMEs. Importantly, the reconstructed distribution determines the way of critical transition (i.e., critical transition is distribution transition rather than state transition in the strong-noise case) as the system comes close to the critical transition point, whereas the derived indicator anticipates when the distribution transition occurs. Our theory has broad applications, and artificial and data examples exhibit its power.

Linear approximations of global behaviors in nonlinear systems with moderate or strong noise

While many physical or chemical systems can be modeled by nonlinear Langevin equations (LEs), dynamical analysis of these systems is challenging in the cases of moderate and strong noise. Here we develop a linear approximation scheme, which can transform an often intractable LE into a linear set of binomial moment equations (BMEs). This scheme provides a feasible way to capture nonlinear behaviors in the sense of probability distribution and is effective even when the noise is moderate or big. Based on BMEs, we further develop a noise reduction technique, which can effectively handle tough cases where traditional small-noise theories are inapplicable. The overall method not only provides an approximation-based paradigm to analysis of the local and global behaviors of nonlinear noisy systems but also has a wide range of applications.