Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence

Understanding the Role of HLA Class I Molecules in the Immune Response to Influenza Infection and Rational Design of a Peptide-Based Vaccine

Influenza A virus is a respiratory pathogen that is responsible for regular epidemics and occasional pandemics that result in substantial damage to life and the economy. The yearly reformulation of trivalent or quadrivalent flu vaccines encompassing surface glycoproteins derived from the current circulating strains of the virus does not provide sufficient cross-protection against mismatched strains. Unlike the current vaccines that elicit a predominant humoral response, vaccines that induce CD8⁺ T cells have demonstrated a capacity to provide cross-protection against different influenza strains, including novel influenza viruses. Immunopeptidomics, the mass spectrometric identification of human-leukocyte-antigen (HLA)-bound peptides isolated from infected cells, has recently provided key insights into viral peptides that can serve as potential T cell epitopes. The critical elements required for a strong and long-living CD8⁺ T cell response are related to both HLA restriction and the immunogenicity of the viral peptide. This review examines the importance of HLA and the viral immunopeptidome for the design of a universal influenza T-cell-based vaccine.

Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959-2016

This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959-2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.