Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

The Effects of Trash, Residential Biofuel, and Open Biomass Burning Emissions on Local and Transported PM2.5 and Its Attributed Mortality in Africa

Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the second leading risk factor of premature death in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use GEOS-Chem to quantify the effects of (a) trash burning, (b) residential solid-fuel burning, and (c) open biomass burning (BB) (i.e., landscape fires) on ambient PM_2.5 and PM_2.5-attributable mortality in Africa. Using a series of sensitivity simulations, we excluded each of the three combustion sources in each of five African regions. We estimate that in 2017 emissions from these three combustion sources within Africa increased global ambient PM_2.5 by 2%, leading to 203,000 (95% confidence interval: 133,000-259,000) premature mortalities yr^-1 globally and 167,000 premature mortalities yr^-1 in Africa. BB contributes more ambient PM_2.5-related premature mortalities per year (63%) than residential solid-fuel burning (29%) and trash burning (8%). Open BB in Central Africa leads to the largest number of PM_2.5-attributed mortalities inside the region, while trash burning in North Africa and residential solid-fuel burning in West Africa contribute the most regional mortalities for each source. Overall, Africa has a unique ambient air pollution profile because natural sources, such as windblown dust and BB, contribute strongly to ambient PM_2.5 levels and PM_2.5-related mortality. Air pollution policies may need to focus on taking preventative measures to avoid exposure to ambient PM_2.5 from these less-controllable sources.

Understanding Anthropogenic PM2.5 Concentrations and Their Drivers in China during 1998-2016

Air pollution poses serious challenges for human health and wellbeing. It also affects atmospheric visibility and contributes to climate change. As social and economic processes have increased, anthropogenic PM_2.5 pollution caused by intensive human activities has led to extremely severe air pollution. Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations have received increasing attention from the scientific community. Nonetheless, spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations are still inadequately understood. Based on a time series of remotely sensed anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of this crucial pollutant in China from 1998 to 2016 using Sen's slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall trend model. This, in combination with grey correlation analysis (GCA), was used to reveal the socioeconomic factors influencing anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations in eastern, central, and western China from 1998 to 2016. The results were as follows: (1) the average annual anthropogenic concentration of PM_2.5 in China increased quickly and reached its peak value in 2007, then remained stable in the following years; (2) only 63.30 to 55.09% of the land area reached the threshold value of 15 μg/m³ from 1998 to 2016; (3) regarding the polarization phenomenon of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations existing in eastern and central China, the proportion of gradient 1 (≤15 μg/m³) gradually decreased and gradient 3 (≥35 μg/m³) gradually increased; and (4) the urbanization level (UR), population density (PD), and proportion of secondary industry to gross domestic product (SI) were the dominant socioeconomic factors affecting the formation of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations in eastern, central, and western China, independently. The improvements in energy consumption per gross domestic product (EI) have a greater potential for mitigating anthropogenic PM_2.5 emissions in central and western China. These findings allow an interpretation of the spatial distribution of anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations and the mechanisms influencing anthropogenic PM_2.5 concentrations, which can help the Chinese government develop effective abatement strategies.

The comparison between in-situ monitored data and modelled results of nitrogen dioxide (NO2): case-study, road networks of Kigali city, Rwanda

The incomplete combustion of fossil fuels from petrol, natural gas, and fuel oil in the engine of vehicles contributes to air quality degradation through traffic-related air pollutant emissions. The Real-time affordable multi-pollutant (RAMPs) monitors were installed in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, to fill the gap in air quality datasets. Using RAMPs, this is the first air quality modelling research in Rwanda aiming to report the concentration of NO₂ by comparing In-situ monitored data and modelled results. We targeted NO₂ emissions from 27 road networks of Kigali to address the impacts of traffic emissions on air quality over 2021. The American Meteorological Society and Environmental Protection Agency regulatory models (AERMOD and ISCST3) were used for simulation. Statistical indexes include fractional bias (FB), the fraction of the prediction within the factor of two of the observations (FAC2), normalized mean square error (NMSE), geometric mean bias (MG), and geometric variance (VG) used to assess models' reliability. Monitoring shows the annual mean of 16.07 μg/m³, 20.35 μg/m³, and 15.46 μg/m³ at Mont-Kigali, Gacuriro, and Gikondo-Mburabuturo stations, respectively. Modelling shows the daily mean of 111.77 μg/m³ and annually mean of 50.42 μg/m³ with AERMOD and daily mean of 200.26 μg/m³ and annually mean of 72.26 μg/m³ with ISCST3. The FB, NMSE, and FAC2 showed good agreement, while MG and VG showed moderate agreement with AERMOD. The FB, NMSE, and MG showed moderate agreement, while FAC2 and VG disagreed with ISCST3. Traffic and urban residential emissions were identified as potential sources of NO₂. Results indicated that Kigali residents are exposed to a significant level of NO₂ exceeding World Health Organisation limits. Findings will help track the effectiveness of Rwanda's recently executed pollution-control policy, suggest evidence based on the recommendations to reduce NO₂, and use further dispersion models to support ground-based observations to improve public health.

The Role of Meteorological Variables and Aerosols in the Transmission of COVID-19 During Harmattan Season

The role of atmospheric parameters and aerosols in the transmission of COVID-19 within tropical Africa, especially during the harmattan season, has been under-investigated in published papers. The harmattan season within the West African region is associated with significant dust incursion from the Bodele depression and biomass burning. In this study, the correlation between atmospheric parameters (temperature and humidity) and aerosols with COVID-19 cases and fatalities within seven locations in tropical Nigeria during the harmattan period was investigated. COVID-19 infection cases were found to be significantly positively correlated with atmospheric parameters (temperature and humidity) in the southern part of the country while the number of fatalities showed weaker significant correlation with particulate matters only in three locations. The significant correlation values were found to be between 0.22 and 0.48 for particulate matter and -0.19 to -0.32 for atmospheric parameters. Although, temperature and humidity showed negative correlations in some locations, the impact is smaller compared to particulate matter. In December, COVID-19 cases in all locations showed strong correlation with particulate matter except in Kano State. It is suggested that a reduction in atmospheric particulate matter can be used as a control measure for the spread of COVID-19.

Wilde S. Isotopic signatures of methane emissions from tropical fires, agriculture and wetlands: the MOYA and ZWAMPS flights

We report methane isotopologue data from aircraft and ground measurements in Africa and South America. Aircraft campaigns sampled strong methane fluxes over tropical papyrus wetlands in the Nile, Congo and Zambezi basins, herbaceous wetlands in Bolivian southern Amazonia, and over fires in African woodland, cropland and savannah grassland. Measured methane δ¹³C_CH4 isotopic signatures were in the range -55 to -49‰ for emissions from equatorial Nile wetlands and agricultural areas, but widely -60 ± 1‰ from Upper Congo and Zambezi wetlands. Very similar δ¹³C_CH4 signatures were measured over the Amazonian wetlands of NE Bolivia (around -59‰) and the overall δ¹³C_CH4 signature from outer tropical wetlands in the southern Upper Congo and Upper Amazon drainage plotted together was -59 ± 2‰. These results were more negative than expected. For African cattle, δ¹³C_CH4 values were around -60 to -50‰. Isotopic ratios in methane emitted by tropical fires depended on the C3 : C4 ratio of the biomass fuel. In smoke from tropical C3 dry forest fires in Senegal, δ¹³C_CH4 values were around -28‰. By contrast, African C4 tropical grass fire δ¹³C_CH4 values were -16 to -12‰. Methane from urban landfills in Zambia and Zimbabwe, which have frequent waste fires, had δ¹³C_CH4 around -37 to -36‰. These new isotopic values help improve isotopic constraints on global methane budget models because atmospheric δ¹³C_CH4 values predicted by global atmospheric models are highly sensitive to the δ¹³C_CH4 isotopic signatures applied to tropical wetland emissions. Field and aircraft campaigns also observed widespread regional smoke pollution over Africa, in both the wet and dry seasons, and large urban pollution plumes. The work highlights the need to understand tropical greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the goals of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, and to help reduce air pollution over wide regions of Africa. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'.

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM_2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM_2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74-1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM_2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52-0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32-0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28-0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem

The burning of fossil fuels - especially coal, petrol, and diesel - is a major source of airborne fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), and a key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease. Previous risk assessments have examined the health response to total PM_2.5, not just PM_2.5 from fossil fuel combustion, and have used a concentration-response function with limited support from the literature and data at both high and low concentrations. This assessment examines mortality associated with PM_2.5 from only fossil fuel combustion, making use of a recent meta-analysis of newer studies with a wider range of exposure. We also estimated mortality due to lower respiratory infections (LRI) among children under the age of five in the Americas and Europe, regions for which we have reliable data on the relative risk of this health outcome from PM_2.5 exposure. We used the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate global exposure levels to fossil-fuel related PM_2.5 in 2012. Relative risks of mortality were modeled using functions that link long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and mortality, incorporating nonlinearity in the concentration response. We estimate a global total of 10.2 (95% CI: -47.1 to 17.0) million premature deaths annually attributable to the fossil-fuel component of PM_2.5. The greatest mortality impact is estimated over regions with substantial fossil fuel related PM_2.5, notably China (3.9 million), India (2.5 million) and parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia. The estimate for China predates substantial decline in fossil fuel emissions and decreases to 2.4 million premature deaths due to 43.7% reduction in fossil fuel PM_2.5 from 2012 to 2018 bringing the global total to 8.7 (95% CI: -1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths. We also estimated excess annual deaths due to LRI in children (0-4 years old) of 876 in North America, 747 in South America, and 605 in Europe. This study demonstrates that the fossil fuel component of PM_2.5 contributes a large mortality burden. The steeper concentration-response function slope at lower concentrations leads to larger estimates than previously found in Europe and North America, and the slower drop-off in slope at higher concentrations results in larger estimates in Asia. Fossil fuel combustion can be more readily controlled than other sources and precursors of PM_2.5 such as dust or wildfire smoke, so this is a clear message to policymakers and stakeholders to further incentivize a shift to clean sources of energy.

Air Quality and Health Impact of Future Fossil Fuel Use for Electricity Generation and Transport in Africa

Africa has ambitious plans to address energy deficits and sustain economic growth with fossil fueled power plants. The continent is also experiencing faster population growth than anywhere else in the world that will lead to proliferation of vehicles. Here, we estimate air pollutant emissions in Africa from future (2030) electricity generation and transport. We find that annual emissions of two precursors of fine particles (PM_2.5) hazardous to health, sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), approximately double by 2030 relative to 2012, increasing from 2.5 to 5.5 Tg SO₂ and 1.5 to 2.8 Tg NO_x. We embed these emissions in the GEOS-Chem model nested over the African continent to simulate ambient concentrations of PM_2.5 and determine the burden of disease (excess deaths) attributable to exposure to future fossil fuel use. We calculate 48000 avoidable deaths in 2030 (95% confidence interval: 6000-88000), mostly in South Africa (10400), Nigeria (7500), and Malawi (2400), with 3-times higher mortality rates from power plants than transport. Sensitivity of the burden of disease to either population growth or air quality varies regionally and suggests that emission mitigation strategies would be most effective in Southern Africa, whereas population growth is the main driver everywhere else.

Updated Emission Factors from Diffuse Combustion Sources in Sub-Saharan Africa and Their Effect on Regional Emission Estimates

Diffuse emission sources outside of kitchen areas are poorly understood, and measurements of their emission factors (EFs) are sparse for regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Thirty-one in-field emission measurements were taken in northern Ghana from combustion sources common to rural regions worldwide. Sources sampled included commercial cooking, trash burning, kerosene lanterns, and diesel generators. EFs were calculated for carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), as well as carbonaceous particulate matter, specifically elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). EC and OC emissions were measured from kerosene lighting events (EF_EC = 25.1 g/kg-fuel SD = 25.7, EF_OC = 9.5 g/kg-fuel SD = 10.0). OC emissions from trash burning events were large and highly variable (EF_OC = 38.9 g/kg-fuel SD = 30.5). Combining our results with other recent in-field emission factors for rural Ghana, we explored updated emission estimates for Ghana using a region specific emissions inventory. Large differences are calculated for all updated source emissions, showing a 96% increase in OC and 78% decrease in EC compared to prior estimates for Ghana's emissions. Differences for carbon monoxide were small when averaged across all updated source types (-1%), though the household wood use and trash burning categories individually show large differences.

Impact of air pollution control policies on future PM2.5 concentrations and their source contributions in China

To investigate the impact of air pollutant control policies on future PM_2.5 concentrations and their source contributions in China, we developed four future scenarios for 2030 based on a 2013 emission inventory, and conducted air quality simulations for each scenario using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem (version 9.1.3). Two energy scenarios i.e., current legislation (CLE) and with additional measures (WAM), were developed to project future energy consumption, reflecting, respectively, existing legislation and implementation status as of the end of 2012, and new energy-saving policies that would be released and enforced more stringently. Two end-of-pipe control strategies, i.e., current control technologies (until 2017) and more stringent control technologies (until 2030), were also developed. The combinations of energy scenarios and end-of-pipe control strategies constitute four emission scenarios (2017-CLE, 2030-CLE, 2017-WAM, and 2030-WAM) evaluated in simulations. PM_2.5 concentrations at national level were estimated to be 57 μg/m³ in the base year 2013, and 58 μg/m³, 42 μg/m³, 42 μg/m³, and 30 μg/m³ under the 2017-CLE, 2030-CLE, 2017-WAM, and 2030-WAM scenarios in 2030, respectively. Large PM_2.5 reductions between 2013 and 2030 were estimated for heavily polluted regions (Sichuan Basin, Middle Yangtze River, North China). The energy-saving policies show similar effects to the end-of-pipe emission control measures, but the relative importance of these two groups of policies varies in different regions. Absolute contributions to PM_2.5 concentrations from most major sources declined from 2017-CLE to 2030-WAM. With respect to fractional contributions, most coal-burning sectors (including power plant, industrial and residential coal burning) increased from 2017-CLE to 2030-WAM, due to larger reductions from non-coal sources, including transportation and biomass open burning. Residential combustion and open burning had much lower fractional contribution to ambient PM_2.5 concentrations in the 2017-WAM/2030-WAM compared to the 2017-CLE/2030-CLE scenarios. Fractional contributions from transportation were reduced dramatically in 2030-CLE and 2030-WAM compared to 2017-CLE/2017-WAM, due to the enforcement of stringent end-of-pipe emission controls. Across all scenarios, coal combustion remained the single largest contributor to PM_2.5 concentrations in 2030. Reducing PM_2.5 emissions from coal combustion remains a strategic priority for air quality management in China.