Li Y, Han KX, Su Q, Xu N, Xie QX, Gao YF. Construction of a Lasso regression-based prediction model for development of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B.
Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2023;
31:282-289. [DOI:
10.11569/wcjd.v31.i7.282]
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Abstract
BACKGROUND
Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a global epidemic, and its progression to cirrhosis is often overlooked by patients. Noninvasive diagnostic models for cirrhosis, which are developed using common clinical indicators, can provide reference value for the early diagnosis and treatment of cirrhosis in CHB.
AIM
To construct a prediction model for cirrhosis based on common clinical indicators.
METHODS
Patients with CHB who underwent liver biopsy at the Department of Infectious Diseases, The First or Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2010 to 2018 were selected, and their laboratory test indicators were collected and compared between patients with and without cirrhosis. Lasso regression model was used to screen the variables with predictive value for cirrhosis, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a prediction model for cirrhosis. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the discrimination performance of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to assess the benefit of the model, and calibration curve-based analysis (CA) was performed to assess the calibration of the model.
RESULTS
A total of 1087 CHB cases were included, of which 135 had cirrhosis. All indicators were statistically different between the two groups except for hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, alanine transaminase (ALT) (P < 0.05). Lasso regression analysi identified the predictive variables as age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), albumin (ALB), globulin (GLB), glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and platelet count (PLT). A prediction model for cirrhosis was developed by multifactorial logistic regression analysis: Logit P = 1.26 + 0.02 × age + 0.001 × AFP - 0.10 × ALB + 0.07 × GLB + 0.004 × GGT - 0.02 × PLT. The AUC of the model for predicting cirrhosis was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.87). DCA suggested that the use of the developed prediction model resulted in an increased net benefit for the patients, and CA suggested that the predictive effect of the prediction model was in accordance with the actual outcome.
CONCLUSION
The present study has developed a prediction model for cirrhosis based on age, AFP, ALB, GLB, GGT, and PLT in patients with CHB, and it is useful for the early diagnosis of cirrhosis in CHB.
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