Contrasted impacts of weather conditions in species sensitive to both survival and fecundity: A montane bird case study

There is growing evidence that the Earth's climate is undergoing profound changes that are affecting biodiversity worldwide. This gives rise to the pressing need to develop robust predictions on how species will respond in order to inform conservation strategies and allow managers to adapt mitigation measures accordingly. While predictions have begun to emerge on how species at the extremes of the so-called slow-fast continuum might respond to climate change, empirical studies for species for which all demographic traits contribute relatively equally to population dynamics are lacking. Yet, climate change is expected to strongly affect them throughout their entire lifecycle. We built a 21-year integrated population model to characterize the population dynamics of the rock partridge (Alectoris graeca) in France, and tested the influence of nine weather covariates on demographic parameters. As predicted, both annual survival and breeding success were affected by weather covariates. Thick snow cover during winter was associated with low survival and small brood size the following breeding season. Brood size was higher with intermediate winter temperatures and snowmelt timing, positively correlated to breeding period temperature, but negatively correlated to temperature during the coldest fortnight and precipitation during the breeding period. Survival was positively correlated to winter temperature, but negatively to breeding period precipitation. Large-scale indices indicated that cold and wet winters were associated with small brood size the following breeding season but with high survival. Expected changes of weather conditions due to climate change are likely to impact demographic traits of the rock partridge both positively and negatively depending on the traits and on the affected weather variables. Future population dynamics will thus depend on the magnitude of these different impacts. Our study illustrates the difficulty to make strong predictions about how species with a population dynamic influenced by both survival and fecundity will respond to climate change.

Cheilospirura hamulosa in the Rock Partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis): Epidemiological Patterns and Prediction of Parasite Distribution in France

The rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis) is an alpine Galliform with high conservation value. Several factors, including parasitic helminths, play a role in population dynamics, and consequently in the conservation management of wild Galliformes. The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological characteristics of Cheilospirura hamulosa (Nematoda, Acuarioidea) in the Rock partridge population in France. Machine learning modeling algorithms were applied to identify the environmental variables influencing parasite occurrence, and to map parasite presence probability. The present work is based on a long-term sampling (1987–2019) conducted in the French Alps. C. hamulosa was found with a prevalence (P) of 39% (Confidence Interval—CI 95%: 34–43), and mean intensity of 7.7 (7.8 sd). The highest prevalence (P: 67%, CI 95%: 54–80) was detected in the period 2005–2009. Latitude was the most important variable shaping the parasite distribution, followed by altitude, annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality, and the amount of precipitation of the coldest quarter. The area suitable for parasite presence included 73% of the French Alps. This work represents the first epidemiological surveillance on C. hamulosa infection in the rock partridge. It provides evidence of a high level of infection and identifies priority areas at higher infection risk, where a close monitoring of the rock partridge populations should be carried out.

Tick-borne encephalitis transmission risk: its dependence on host population dynamics and climate effects

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a human disease caused by a flavivirus that is spread by ticks (Ixodes ricinus). In 2011 and 2012, the highest TBE incidence ever was recorded in Sweden. It has been proposed that warmer spring temperatures result in higher survival of ticks and thus high incidence of TBE. Here, analyses were done of time series of TBE for 1976-2011 in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), mean summer temperatures, and yearly number of harvested European hare (Lepus europeaus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in the County of Stockholm, the area with most TBE cases in recent years in Sweden. The results show that the winter NAO index or winter temperature has no significant effect on the variation in wildlife numbers harvested or TBE cases over time. Mean summer temperature above 12°C had a slight effect, but a multivariate model revealed that only the numbers of European hare and red fox remained in the model and explained 64.4% of the variation in TBE cases. Ticks do not seem to be as sensitive to climate variations as anticipated, even though that summer temperature has increased by 2°C during the time period studied here. Instead, TBE cases seem to be more dependent on host population dynamics than on climate factors.

Linking noninvasive genetic sampling and traditional monitoring to aid management of a trans-border carnivore population

Noninvasive genetic sampling has been embraced by wildlife managers and ecologists, especially those charged with monitoring rare and elusive species over large areas. Challenges arise when desired population measures are not directly attainable from genetic data and when monitoring targets trans-border populations. Norwegian management authorities count individual brown bears (Ursus arctos) using noninvasive genetic sampling but express management goals in the annual number of bear reproductions (females that produce cubs), a measure that is not directly available from genetic data. We combine noninvasive genetic sampling data with information obtained from a long-term intensive monitoring study in neighboring Sweden to estimate the number of annual reproductions by females detected within Norway. Most female brown bears in Norway occur near the border with neighboring countries (Sweden, Finland, and Russia) and their potential reproduction can therefore only partially be credited to Norway. Our model includes a simulation-based method that corrects census data to account for this. We estimated that 4.3 and 5.7 reproductions can be credited to females detected with noninvasive genetic sampling in Norway in 2008 and 2009, respectively. These numbers fall substantially short of the national target (15 annual reproductions). Ignoring the potential for home ranges to extend beyond Norway's borders leads to an increase in the estimate of the number of reproductions by -30%. Our study shows that combining noninvasive genetic sampling with information obtained from traditional intensive/invasive monitoring can help answer contemporary management questions in the currency desired by managers and policy makers. Furthermore, combining methodologies and thereby accounting for space use increases the accuracy of the information on which decisions are based. It is important that the information derived from multiple approaches is applicable to the same focal population and that predictions are cross-validated. When monitoring and management are constrained to administrative units, census data should be adjusted by discounting portions of individual space utilization that extend beyond the focal jurisdiction. Our simulation-based approach for making such an adjustment may be useful in other situations where management authorities target portions of trans-border populations.

Synchrony in tritrophic food chain metacommunities

The synchronous behaviour of interacting communities is studied in this paper. Each community is described by a tritrophic food chain model, and the communities interact through a network with arbitrary topology, composed of patches and migration corridors. The analysis of the local synchronization properties (via the master stability function approach) shows that, if only one species can migrate, the dispersal of the consumer (i.e., the intermediate trophic level) is the most effective mechanism for promoting synchronization. When analysing the effects of the variations of demographic parameters, it is found that factors that stabilize the single community also tend to favour synchronization. Global synchronization is finally analysed by means of the connection graph method, yielding a lower bound on the value of the dispersion rate that guarantees the synchronization of the metacommunity for a given network topology.

Spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in continuous and fragmented agricultural landscapes

Small mammal populations often exhibit large-scale spatial synchrony, which is purportedly caused by stochastic weather-related environmental perturbations, predation or dispersal. To elucidate the relative synchronizing effects of environmental perturbations from those of dispersal movements of small mammalian prey or their predators, we investigated the spatial dynamics of Microtus vole populations in two differently structured landscapes which experience similar patterns of weather and climatic conditions. Vole and predator abundances were monitored for three years on 28 agricultural field sites arranged into two 120-km-long transect lines in western Finland. Sites on one transect were interconnected by continuous agricultural farmland (continuous landscape), while sites on the other were isolated from one another to a varying degree by mainly forests (fragmented landscape). Vole populations exhibited large-scale (>120 km) spatial synchrony in fluctuations, which did not differ in degree between the landscapes or decline with increasing distance between trapping sites. However, spatial variation in vole population growth rates was higher in the fragmented than in the continuous landscape. Although vole-eating predators were more numerous in the continuous agricultural landscape than in the fragmented, our results suggest that predators do not exert a great influence on the degree of spatial synchrony of vole population fluctuations, but they may contribute to bringing out-of-phase prey patches towards a regional density level. The spatial dynamics of vole populations were similar in both fragmented and continuous landscapes despite inter-landscape differences in both predator abundance and possibilities of vole dispersal. This implies that the primary source of synchronization lies in a common weather-related environment.

Spatial synchrony of a highly endemic fish Assemblage (Segredo Reservoir, Iguaçu River, Paraná State, Brazil)

In this study, patterns of spatial synchrony in population fluctuations (cross-correlation) of an endemic fish assemblage of a Neotropical reservoir (Segredo Reservoir, Iguaçu River, Paraná State, Brazil) were reported. First, the level of population synchrony for 20 species was estimated. Second, population synchrony was correlated, using the Mantel test, with geographical distances among sites (n = 11) and also environmental synchrony (temperature). Nine species presented significant correlations between spatial synchrony and geographic distances (Astyanax sp. b, Astyanax sp. c, Pimelodus sp., Hoplias malabaricus, Crenicichla iguassuensis, Hypostomus derbyi, Hypostomus myersi, Rhamdia branneri, and R. voulezi). Considering the ecology of the species and the significant relationship between population and environmental synchronies, it seems that environmental stochasticity is the most plausible hypothesis in explaining the observed synchrony patterns.

Landscape effects on temporal and spatial properties of vole population fluctuations

Populations of northern small rodents have previously been observed to fluctuate in spatial synchrony over distances ranging from tens to hundreds of kilometers between sites. It has been suggested that this phenomenon is caused by common environmental perturbations, mobile predators or dispersal movements. However, very little focus has been given to how the physical properties of the geographic area over which synchrony occurs, such as landscape composition and climate, affect spatial population dynamics. This study reports on the spatial and temporal properties of vole population fluctuations in two areas of western Finland: one composed of large interconnected areas of agricultural farmland interspersed by forests and the other highly dominated by forest areas, containing more isolated patches of agricultural land. Furthermore, the more agricultural area exhibits somewhat milder winters with less snow than the forested area. We found the amplitude of vole cycles to be essentially the same in the two areas, suggesting that the relative amount of predation on small rodents by generalist versus specialist predators is similar in both areas. No seasonal differences in the timing of synchronization were observable for Microtus voles, whereas bank vole populations in field habitats appeared to become synchronized primarily during winter. Microtus populations in field habitats exhibited smaller spatial variation and a higher degree of synchrony in the more continuous agricultural landscape than in the forest-dominated landscape. We suggest that this inter-areal difference is due to differences in the degree of inter-patch connectivity, with predators and dispersal acting as the primary synchronizing agents. Bank vole populations in field habitats were more synchronized within the forest-dominated landscape, most likely reflecting the suitability of the inter-patch matrix and the possibility of dispersal. Our study clearly indicates that landscape composition needs to be taken into account when describing the spatial properties of small rodent population dynamics.

Self-organized dynamics in spatially structured populations

Self-organization and pattern formation represent the emergence of order in temporal and spatial processes. Self-organization in population ecology is gaining attention due to the recent advances concerning temporal fluctuations in the population size of dispersal-linked subunits. We shall report that spatially structured models of population renewal promote the emergence of a complex power law order in spatial population dynamics. We analyse a variety of population models showing that self-organization can be identified as a temporal match in population dynamics among local units, and how the synchrony changes in time. Our theoretical results are concordant with analyses of population data on the Canada lynx.

The role of oxygen availability in the embryonation of Heterakis gallinarum eggs

The importance of oxygen availability in the embryonation of the infective egg stages of the gastrointestinal nematode parasite Heterakis gallinarum was studied in the laboratory. Unembryonated H. gallinarum eggs were kept under either aerobic conditions by gassing with oxygen, or anaerobic conditions by gassing with the inert gas nitrogen, under a range of constant temperatures. Oxygenated eggs embryonated at a rate influenced by temperature. Conversely, eggs treated with nitrogen showed no embryonation although when these eggs were transferred from nitrogen to oxygen gas after 60 days of treatment, embryonation occurred. This demonstrated that oxygen is an essential requirement for H. gallinarum egg development, although undeveloped eggs remain viable, even after 60 days in low oxygen conditions. The effects of climate on the biology of free-living stages studied under constant laboratory conditions cannot be applied directly to the field where climatic factors exhibit daily cycles. The effect of fluctuating temperature on development was investigated by including an additional temperature group in which H. gallinarum eggs were kept under daily temperature cycles between 12 and 22 degrees C. Cycles caused eggs to develop significantly earlier than those in the constant mean cycle temperature, 17 degrees C, but significantly slower than those in constant 22 degrees C suggesting that daily temperature cycles had an accelerating effect on H. gallinarum egg embryonation but did not accelerate to the higher temperature. These results suggest that daily fluctuations in temperature influence development of the free-living stages and so development cannot be accurately predicted on the basis of constant temperature culture.

Invading parasites cause a structural shift in red fox dynamics

The influence of parasites on host life histories and populations is pronounced. Among several diseases affecting animal populations throughout the world, sarcoptic mange has influenced many carnivore populations dramatically and during the latest epizootic in Fennoscandia reduced the abundance of red fox by over 70%. While the numerical responses of red fox populations, their prey and their competitors as well as clinical implications are well known, knowledge of how sarcoptic mange affects the structure of the dynamics of red fox populations is lacking. Integrating ecological theory and statistical modelling, we analysed the long-term dynamics (1955-1996) of 14 Danish red fox populations. As suggested by the model, invading sarcoptic mange significantly affected direct and delayed density dependence in red fox dynamics and concomitant shifts in fluctuation patterns were observed. Our statistical analyses also revealed that the spatial progressive spread of mange mites was mirrored in the autocovariate structures of red fox populations progressively exposed to sarcoptic mange.