Biological control of a predator–prey system through provision of an infected predator

Epidemic transmission has a substantial effect on the dynamics and stability of the predator–prey system, in which the transmission rate plays an important role. The probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) approach is used to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of a predator–prey system with the infected predator. Remarkably, it is impossible to achieve a coexistence state of prey, susceptible predators, and infected predators in a spatial population. This is different from the analysis from a non-spatial population with the mean-field approximation, where Hopf bifurcation arises and the interior equilibrium becomes unstable, and a periodic solution appears with the increasing infection rate. The results show that the introduction of the infected predator with a high transmission rate is beneficial for the persistence of the prey population in space. However, a low transmission rate will promote the coexistence state of the prey and the susceptible predator populations. In summary, it is possible to develop management strategies to manipulate the transmission rate of the infected predator for the benefit of biological control.

Models for managing wildlife disease

Modelling wildlife disease poses some unique challenges. Wildlife disease systems are data poor in comparison with human or livestock disease systems, and the impact of disease on population size is often the key question of interest. This review concentrates specifically on the application of dynamic models to evaluate and guide management strategies. Models have proved useful particularly in two areas. They have been widely used to evaluate vaccination strategies, both for protecting endangered species and for preventing spillover from wildlife to humans or livestock. They have also been extensively used to evaluate culling strategies, again both for diseases in species of conservation interest and to prevent spillover. In addition, models are important to evaluate the potential of parasites and pathogens as biological control agents. The review concludes by identifying some key research gaps, which are further development of models of macroparasites, deciding on appropriate levels of complexity, modelling genetic management and connecting models to data.

Prospects for the future: is there a role for virally vectored immunocontraception in vertebrate pest management?

Virally vectored immunocontraception (VVIC) has been studied and promoted as an alternative to lethal methods for vertebrate pest control in Australia and New Zealand. Virally vectored immunocontraception offers a potentially humane and species-specific control method with potential for a good benefit–cost outcome, but its applicability for broad-scale management remains unknown. We present case studies for the house mouse, European rabbit, red fox and common brushtail possum and describe the current status of research into the use of VVIC as a broad-scale pest-management tool. All case studies indicated that there are significant problems with delivery and efficacy. The current state of development suggests that VVIC is not presently a viable alternative for the management of these vertebrate pests, and it is highly unlikely that this will change in the foreseeable future. An absence of benefit–cost data also hinders decision-making, and until benefit–cost data become available it will not be clear if there are short- or long-term benefits resulting from the use of VVIC for broad-scale pest management.

Prospects for fertility control in the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) using myxoma virus-vectored immunocontraception

Research over the last 15 years has examined whether fertility control can reduce overabundant rabbit populations and whether an effective immunocontraceptive agent can be developed and delivered. The results of this research indicate that for fertility control to have an environmental impact at least 80% of females will need to be infertile and that this infertility will need to be permanent. Epidemiological studies suggest that this level of infertility may be very difficult to obtain with a recombinant myxoma virus because of competition with field strains of virus. Research with laboratory rabbits using recombinant myxoma virus to deliver an immunocontraceptive antigen demonstrated that it was possible to obtain the required level of infertility using rabbit zona pellucida C as an antigen. However, only ~50% of animals remained infertile in the medium term. Further research on delivery vector and antigen selection would be needed to produce a practical immunocontraceptive virus for laboratory testing. Such a virus would then need to be optimised for transmissibility before it would be suitable for field testing.

Predicting the effect of immunocontraceptive recombinant murine cytomegalovirus on population outbreaks of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) in mallee wheatlands

Virally vectored immunocontraception using a modified murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) is being developed for the control of house mice in Australia. In this paper, we develop disease–host models using a combination of laboratory and field data. We then combine these models with a model of a previous mouse population outbreak to explore the likely effectiveness of modified MCMV for controlling mice. Models of homogeneous mixing with and without vertical/pseudovertical transmission provided reasonable fits to field serological data collected during the onset and development of a mouse population outbreak in south-eastern Australia. Both models include the high transmission rate of MCMV suggested by the data. We found no strong support for non-linear contact rates or heterogeneous mixing. When applied to a past outbreak of mice both models gave similar results and suggested that immunocontraceptive MCMV could be effective at reducing agricultural damage to acceptable levels. Successful control was still possible when lags in the development of infertility of up to 10 weeks were added to the model, provided high levels of infertility were achieved. These lags were added because mice can become pregnant just before becoming infertile – the resultant litter would not emerge for 6–7 weeks. Trade-offs between two parameters that could be altered by engineering strains of MCMV – the level of infertility in infected mice and the virus transmission rate – were explored and suggest that a variety of parameter combinations could produce successful control. Our results are encouraging for the future development of virally vectored immunocontraception control of house mice, but future work will need to consider some of the assumptions of these single-strain models.