Transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis: density-dependence in the uptake of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae by vector mosquitoes

Progress in the elimination of lymphatic filariasis in the Western Pacific Region: successes and challenges

The Western Pacific Region is the largest and most diverse region in the world, made up of 37 countries and territories in the Pacific, Oceania and parts of Asia, with a population of more than 1.9 billion people stretching over an area from China and Mongolia in the north to New Zealand in the south. In 1999, 22 countries and territories in the Pacific joined together and launched the Pacific Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis. Shortly after, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000. In 2004, 12 countries in the Asia subregion of the Western Pacific Region and Southeast Asian Region joined and developed the Mekong-Plus Strategic Plan for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis. Since then, significant efforts have been made by all endemic countries, with annual mass drug administration (MDA) as a principal strategy, through strong partnership with the WHO and other donors and partners. As a result, by the end of 2019, 10 of 22 endemic countries in the region, including 8 of 16 countries in the Pacific and 2 countries in the Asia subregion, achieved WHO validation for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. All the other countries are either progressing with post-MDA surveillance or accelerating efforts by adoption of the new triple drug therapy strategy and enhancement of MDA campaigns to tackle persistent transmission. Some 85% of the originally endemic implementation units have stopped MDA and the number of people requiring MDA for LF in the Western Pacific Region was reduced by 72% from 2000 to 2018. This paper reviews the progress, key success factors and remaining challenges and indicates the way forward to achieve LF elimination in the Western Pacific Region.

Assessing the Filariasis Causing Parasites in Adult Mosquitoes and the Vector Mosquito Larval Breeding in Selected Medical Officer of Health Areas in Gampaha District, Sri Lanka

The present study was conducted to determine the prevalence of filariasis causing parasites in adult mosquitoes and vector mosquito larval breeding in four Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in Gampaha district, Sri Lanka. Adult female mosquitoes at their resting places were collected using a prokopack aspirator operated twice a day from 7.00 am to 8.00 am and 8.00 pm to 9 pm in predetermined dates. Microfilarial worms in dissected mosquitoes were morphologically identified. Nine species of mosquitoes, namely, Culex quinquefasciatus, Cx. pipiens, Cx. fuscocephala, Cx. gelidus, Armigeres subalbatus, Mansonia uniformis, Ma. annulifera, Aedes aegypti, and Ae. Albopictus, were captured. A total of 1194 mosquito larvae were collected that belonged into three genera, namely, Culex (62.73%), Armigeres (25.62%), and Mansonia (11.64%), from blocked drains, polluted drains, blocked canals, large polluted water bodies, stagnant water bodies, marsh lands, rice field mudflats, and concrete pits. Large polluted water bodies (Shannon-Wiener diversity index/H' = 1.5591) were the most diversed habitat type. In breeding water, average pH mainly lied in between 6 and 8 and average dissolved oxygen ranged from 3 to 7 mg/L. Cx. quinquefasciatus and Armigeres subalbatus adult female mosquitoes captured from Kelaniya MOH area were positive for microfilariae and were identified as Wuchereria bancrofti and Dirofilaria repens, respectively. This study concludes possible lymphatic filariasis situation is in extremely very low level persistent (0.06%) where transmission cannot be sustained and is restricted only to isolated pockets in the study area. The zoonotic strains of filariasis causing subcutaneous dirofilariasis in humans by Dirofilaria repens is continuing to survive due to the presence of stray dogs that serve as reservoir hosts.

Surveillance of Wuchereria bancrofti infection by anti-filarial IgG4 in urine among schoolchildren and molecular xenomonitoring in Sri Lanka: a post mass drug administration study

Background

Surveillance of hidden foci or resurgence of the bancroftian filariasis has high priority to maintain the elimination status in Sri Lanka. For the surveillance, two methods were applied in Matotagama, Matara, Sri Lanka; (i) molecular xenomonitoring (MX) by PCR to detect parasite DNA in the vector, Culex (Cx) quinquefasciatus and (ii) survey of anti-filarial IgG4 in urine samples from schoolchildren.

Results

Mosquitoes were collected monthly from index houses for 17 months (2013 to 2014) to confirm the existence of bancroftian parasite. Index houses in Matotagama had recorded microfilaria-positive cases in the recent past. Five schools were selected considering Matotagama as the catchment area and all students who presented on the day were tested for urine anti-filarial IgG4 in 2015. Wuchereria bancrofti DNA in Cx. quinquefasciatus pools were found in 14 of 17 months studied and ranged between 0 and 1.4%. The MX rate was greatly increased at least two times in the year following the driest months (March, August). A total of 735 schoolchildren were tested for urine anti-filarial IgG4. Three schools located closer to the MX area had higher positive rates, 3.4%, 3.6%, and 6.6%. Both highest positive rates of MX and urine were located in a nearer vicinity.

Conclusion

Monthly collections to study lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission by MX was conducted for the first time in Sri Lanka. We observed that the filarial DNA-positive rate had an association with seasonal cycle of precipitation. More than 1% filarial DNA and > 5% anti-filarial antibody rates confirmed ongoing transmission in Matotagama. The combination of two non-invasive surveys, the urine anti-filarial IgG4 levels of schoolchildren and MX of vector mosquitoes, would be a convenient package to monitor the ongoing transmission (hotspots) of LF in the surveillance.

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.

Independent and interactive effect of plant- and mammalian- based odors on the response of the malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae

Several studies have shown that odors of plant and animal origin can be developed into lures for use in surveillance of mosquito vectors of infectious diseases. However, the effect of combining plant- and mammalian-derived odors into an improved lure for monitoring both nectar- and blood-seeking mosquito populations in traps is yet to be explored. Here we used both laboratory dual choice olfactometer and field assays to investigate responses of the malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, to plant- and mammalian-derived compounds and a combined blend derived from these two odor sources. Using subtractive bioassays in dual choice olfactometer we show that a 3-component terpenoid plant-derived blend comprising (E)-linalool oxide, β-pinene, β-ocimene was more attractive to females of An. gambiae than (E)-linalool oxide only (previously found attractive in field trials) and addition of limonene to this blend antagonized its attractiveness. Likewise, a mammalian-derived lure comprising the aldehydes heptanal, octanal, nonanal and decanal, was more preferred than (E)-linalool oxide. Surprisingly, combining the plant-derived 3-component blend with the mammalian derived 4-component blend attracted fewer females of An. gambiae than the individual blends in laboratory assays. However, this pattern was not replicated in field trials, where we observed a dose-dependent effect on trap catches while combining both blends with significantly improved trap catches at higher doses. The observed dose-dependent attractiveness for An. gambiae has practical implication in the design of vector control strategies involving kairomones from plant- and mammalian-based sources.

Assessing endgame strategies for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis: A model-based evaluation of the impact of DEC-medicated salt

Concern is growing regarding the prospects of achieving the global elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) by 2020. Apart from operational difficulties, evidence is emerging which points to unique challenges that could confound achieving LF elimination as extinction targets draw near. Diethylcarbamazine (DEC)-medicated salt may overcome these complex challenges posed by the endgame phase of parasite elimination. We calibrated LF transmission models using Bayesian data-model assimilation techniques to baseline and follow-up infection data from 11 communities that underwent DEC salt medication. The fitted models were used to assess the utility of DEC salt treatment for achieving LF elimination, in comparison with other current and proposed drug regimens, during the endgame phase. DEC-medicated salt consistently reduced microfilaria (mf) prevalence from 1% mf to site-specific elimination thresholds more quickly than the other investigated treatments. The application of DEC salt generally required less than one year to achieve site-specific LF elimination, while annual and biannual MDA options required significantly longer durations to achieve the same task. The use of DEC-medicated salt also lowered between-site variance in extinction timelines, especially when combined with vector control. These results indicate that the implementation of DEC-medicated salt, where feasible, can overcome endgame challenges facing LF elimination programs.

Socio-ecological dynamics and challenges to the governance of Neglected Tropical Disease control

The current global attempts to control the so-called “Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)” have the potential to significantly reduce the morbidity suffered by some of the world’s poorest communities. However, the governance of these control programmes is driven by a managerial rationality that assumes predictability of proposed interventions, and which thus primarily seeks to improve the cost-effectiveness of implementation by measuring performance in terms of pre-determined outputs. Here, we argue that this approach has reinforced the narrow normal-science model for controlling parasitic diseases, and in doing so fails to address the complex dynamics, uncertainty and socio-ecological context-specificity that invariably underlie parasite transmission. We suggest that a new governance approach is required that draws on a combination of non-equilibrium thinking about the operation of complex, adaptive, systems from the natural sciences and constructivist social science perspectives that view the accumulation of scientific knowledge as contingent on historical interests and norms, if more effective control approaches sufficiently sensitive to local disease contexts are to be devised, applied and managed. At the core of this approach is an emphasis on the need for a process that assists with the inclusion of diverse perspectives, social learning and deliberation, and a reflexive approach to addressing system complexity and incertitude, while balancing this flexibility with stability-focused structures. We derive and discuss a possible governance framework and outline an organizational structure that could be used to effectively deal with the complexity of accomplishing global NTD control. We also point to examples of complexity-based management structures that have been used in parasite control previously, which could serve as practical templates for developing similar governance structures to better manage global NTD control. Our results hold important wider implications for global health policy aiming to effectively control and eradicate parasitic diseases across the world.

Heterogeneous dynamics, robustness/fragility trade-offs, and the eradication of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The current WHO-led initiative to eradicate the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), based on single-dose annual mass drug administration (MDA) represents one of the largest health programs devised to reduce the burden of tropical diseases. However, despite the advances made in instituting large-scale MDA programs in affected countries, a challenge to meeting the goal of global eradication is the heterogeneous transmission of LF across endemic regions, and the impact that such complexity may have on the effort required to interrupt transmission in all socioecological settings.

METHODS

Here, we apply a Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit transmission models of LF to field data assembled from 18 sites across the major LF endemic regions of Africa, Asia and Papua New Guinea, reflecting different ecological and vector characteristics, to investigate the impacts and implications of transmission heterogeneity and complexity on filarial infection dynamics, system robustness and control.

RESULTS

We find firstly that LF elimination thresholds varied significantly between the 18 study communities owing to site variations in transmission and initial ecological parameters. We highlight how this variation in thresholds lead to the need for applying variable durations of interventions across endemic communities for achieving LF elimination; however, a major new result is the finding that filarial population responses to interventions ultimately reflect outcomes of interplays between dynamics and the biological architectures and processes that generate robustness/fragility trade-offs in parasite transmission. Intervention simulations carried out in this study further show how understanding these factors is also key to the design of options that would effectively eliminate LF from all settings. In this regard, we find how including vector control into MDA programs may not only offer a countermeasure that will reliably increase system fragility globally across all settings and hence provide a control option robust to differential locality-specific transmission dynamics, but by simultaneously reducing transmission regime variability also permit more reliable macroscopic predictions of intervention effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results imply that a new approach, combining adaptive modelling of parasite transmission with the use of biological robustness as a design principle, is required if we are to both enhance understanding of complex parasitic infections and delineate options to facilitate their elimination effectively.

Bayesian calibration of simulation models for supporting management of the elimination of the macroparasitic disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

Background

Mathematical models of parasite transmission can help integrate a large body of information into a consistent framework, which can then be used for gaining mechanistic insights and making predictions. However, uncertainty, spatial variability and complexity, can hamper the use of such models for decision making in parasite management programs.

Methods

We have adapted a Bayesian melding framework for calibrating simulation models to address the need for robust modelling tools that can effectively support management of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination in diverse endemic settings. We applied this methodology to LF infection and vector biting data from sites across the major LF endemic regions in order to quantify model parameters, and generate reliable predictions of infection dynamics along with credible intervals for modelled output variables. We used the locally calibrated models to estimate breakpoint values for various indicators of parasite transmission, and simulate timelines to parasite extinction as a function of local variations in infection dynamics and breakpoints, and effects of various currently applied and proposed LF intervention strategies.

Results

We demonstrate that as a result of parameter constraining by local data, breakpoint values for all the major indicators of LF transmission varied significantly between the sites investigated. Intervention simulations using the fitted models showed that as a result of heterogeneity in local transmission and extinction dynamics, timelines to parasite elimination in response to the current Mass Drug Administration (MDA) and various proposed MDA with vector control strategies also varied significantly between the study sites. Including vector control, however, markedly reduced the duration of interventions required to achieve elimination as well as decreased the risk of recrudescence following stopping of MDA.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated how a Bayesian data-model assimilation framework can enhance the use of transmission models for supporting reliable decision making in the management of LF elimination. Extending this framework for delivering predictions in settings either lacking or with only sparse data to inform the modelling process, however, will require development of procedures to estimate and use spatio-temporal variations in model parameters and inputs directly, and forms the next stage of the work reported here.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1132-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Allee effect and elimination of neglected tropical diseases: a mathematical modelling study

Elimination and control programmes for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are underway around the world, yet they are generally informed by epidemiological modelling only to a rudimentary degree. Chief among the modelling-derived predictors of disease emergence or controllability is the basic reproduction number R0. The ecological systems of several of the NTDs include density-dependent processes--which alter the rate of e.g. parasite establishment or fecundity--that complicate the calculation of R0. Here we show how the forms of the density-dependent functions for a model of the NTD lymphatic filariasis affect the effective reproduction number Reff. We construct infection transmission models containing various density-dependent functions and show how they alter the shape of the Reff profile, affecting two important epidemiological outcome variables that relate to elimination and control programmes: the parasite transmission breakpoint (or extinction threshold) and the reproduction fitness, as measured by Reff. The current drive to control, eliminate or eradicate several parasitic infections would be substantially aided by the existence of ecological Allee effects. For these control programmes, the findings of this paper are encouraging, since a single positive density dependency (DD) can introduce a reasonable chance of achieving elimination; however, there are diminishing returns to additional positive DDs.

Presence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaremia despite 7 years of annual ivermectin monotherapy mass drug administration for onchocerciasis control: a study in north-west Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

There is considerable interest in determining whether mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin for onchocerciasis control will eliminate coendemic lymphatic filariasis (LF). The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of LF microfilaremia in onchocerciasis endemic districts that had received 7 years of MDA with ivermectin.

METHOD

Three villages with a 2010 LF circulating antigenaemia prevalence (determined in a mapping exercise using immunochromatography tests) ranging from 23 to 56% were surveyed for the presence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaria (mf) in 2012. These villages had been treated with ivermectin MDA for onchocerciasis with reported total population coverage of ≥65%. A total of 774 residents aged 2 years and above, of both genders, provided 60 μl nocturnal blood samples between 10 pm and 2 am. Standard thick smears were prepared and examined microscopically after Giemsa staining for the presence of W. bancrofti mf.

RESULTS

The mean mf prevalence was 4.7% (village range 1.1-11.0%). The mean mf density was 9.8 mf/60 μl (village range 9-13.1) among the positive individuals. Children in the 2-4-year-old and 5-9-year-old age groups were infected suggesting transmission occurred during the MDA period. A village level review of MDA treatment coverage records showed an average total population coverage of 66.4% over a 7-year period, but with a considerable range of annual coverage (43.0-89.9%). In addition, village level treatment coverage data were missing from the village with the highest mf prevalence (11%) for 2 of the 7 years.

CONCLUSION

7 years of annual mass treatment with ivermectin monotherapy for onchocerciasis did not interrupt LF transmission. In expanding the onchocerciasis ivermectin MDA programme to include LF, albendazole should be added and treatment coverage improved.

How effective is integrated vector management against malaria and lymphatic filariasis where the diseases are transmitted by the same vector?

BACKGROUND

The opportunity to integrate vector management across multiple vector-borne diseases is particularly plausible for malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) control where both diseases are transmitted by the same vector. To date most examples of integrated control targeting these diseases have been unanticipated consequences of malaria vector control, rather than planned strategies that aim to maximize the efficacy and take the complex ecological and biological interactions between the two diseases into account.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed a general model of malaria and LF transmission and derived expressions for the basic reproductive number (R0) for each disease. Transmission of both diseases was most sensitive to vector mortality and biting rate. Simulating different levels of coverage of long lasting-insecticidal nets (LLINs) and larval control confirms the effectiveness of these interventions for the control of both diseases. When LF was maintained near the critical density of mosquitoes, minor levels of vector control (8% coverage of LLINs or treatment of 20% of larval sites) were sufficient to eliminate the disease. Malaria had a far greater R0 and required a 90% population coverage of LLINs in order to eliminate it. When the mosquito density was doubled, 36% and 58% coverage of LLINs and larval control, respectively, were required for LF elimination; and malaria elimination was possible with a combined coverage of 78% of LLINs and larval control.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Despite the low level of vector control required to eliminate LF, simulations suggest that prevalence of LF will decrease at a slower rate than malaria, even at high levels of coverage. If representative of field situations, integrated management should take into account not only how malaria control can facilitate filariasis elimination, but strike a balance between the high levels of coverage of (multiple) interventions required for malaria with the long duration predicted to be required for filariasis elimination.

Single multivalent vaccination boosted by trickle larval infection confers protection against experimental lymphatic filariasis

The multivalent vaccine BmHAT, consisting of the Brugia malayi infective larval (L3) antigens heat shock protein12.6 (HSP12.6), abundant larval transcript-2 (ALT-2) and tetraspanin large extra cellular loop (TSP-LEL), was shown to be protective in rodent models from our laboratory. We hypothesize that since these antigens were identified using protective antibodies from immune endemic normal individuals, the multivalent vaccine can be augmented by natural L3 infections providing protection to the vaccinated host. This hypothesis was tested using single dose of DNA and protein or protein alone of the BmHAT vaccination in gerbils followed by live trickle L3 infection as booster dose. Vaccine-induced protection in gerbils was determined by worm establishment, micropore chamber assay and by antibody dependant cell cytotoxicity (ADCC) assay. Results were compared with the traditional prime-boost vaccination regimen. Gerbils vaccinated with BmHAT and boosted with L3 trickle infection were protected 51% (BmHAT DNA-protein) and 48% (BmHAT protein) respectively. BmHAT vaccination plus L3 trickle booster generated significant titer of antigen-specific IgG antibodies comparable to the traditional prime boost vaccination approach. BmHAT vaccination plus L3 trickle booster also generated antigen-specific cells in the spleen of vaccinated animals and these cells secreted predominantly IFN-γ and IL-4 in response to the vaccine antigens. These studies thus show that single dose of BmHAT multivalent vaccination followed by L3 trickle booster infection can confer significant protection against lymphatic filariasis.

Ecological meta-analysis of density-dependent processes in the transmission of lymphatic filariasis: survival of infected vectors

The survival rate of infected vectors represents one of the fundamental components that influence the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases. Despite the occurrence of a number of studies investigating mosquito survival after infection with filarial worms, there remains conflicting evidence from both laboratory and field experiments as to the existence and mechanism for parasite-induced mortality among filarial mosquitoes. Here, we used a mixed effects meta-analytical framework to combine the data from all available vector-human host blood feeding experiments to evaluate the evidence for the impact of parasite load on the mortality rates of the three major lymphatic filariasis transmitting mosquito genera, Culex, Aedes, and Anopheles mosquitoes, over the extrinsic incubation period of parasitic infection. The results show that, despite the application of this approach, or in the case of Anopheles using a convention fixed effects logistic regression analysis supplemented with additional survival analysis of longitudinal data, no strong association between mortality rate and microfilariae (mf) uptake for either of the three mosquito genera is apparent in the combined data. Instead, a key finding is that study effects played a more crucial role in determining the levels of mortality observed in these experimental studies. This was most revealing in the case of Culex, given that the largest single study in terms of both the number of data points and range of mf intensities, in contrast to smaller studies, showed a significant positive association between mf intensity and mortality, indicating that in this genus at least, the detrimental effect of infection may be manifested only at the highest mf intakes. Although no density dependence in vector mortality was also observed for Aedes, possibly because of the use of restricted human mf intensity range in previous studies, an intriguing finding was that a significantly higher overall mortality was observed for this genus over mfintake ranges that produced much less corresponding mortality in Culex and Anopheles. The results also indicate that currently very little can be said about the survival rate of Anopheles mosquitoes infected with filarial worms because of the striking paucity of data for this genus. Further studies, using standardized methods and covering an appropriate range of mf uptake intensities and using study frameworks that allow the design and comparison of data from both experimental and field experiments, are clearly indicated if we are to reliably quantify the likely effect of filarial infection on vector survival.

LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages

LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.

Complex ecological dynamics and eradicability of the vector borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The current global efforts to control the morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases affecting developing countries--such as HIV/AIDS, polio, tuberculosis, malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)-have led to an increasing focus on the biological controllability or eradicability of disease transmission by management action. Here, we use an age-structured dynamical model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to show how a quantitative understanding of the dynamic processes underlying infection persistence and extinction is key to evaluating the eradicability of this macroparasitic disease.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We investigated the persistence and extinction dynamics of lymphatic filariasis by undertaking a numerical equilibrium analysis of a deterministic model of parasite transmission, based on varying values of the initial L3 larval density in the system. The results highlighted the likely occurrence of complex dynamics in parasite transmission with three major outcomes for the eradicability of filariasis. First, both vector biting and worm breakpoint thresholds are shown to be complex dynamic entities with values dependent on the nature and magnitude of vector-and host specific density-dependent processes and the degree of host infection aggregation prevailing in endemic communities. Second, these thresholds as well as the potential size of the attractor domains and hence system resilience are strongly dependent on peculiarities of infection dynamics in different vector species. Finally, the existence of multiple stable states indicates the presence of hysteresis nonlinearity in the filariasis system dynamics in which infection thresholds for infection invasion are lower but occur at higher biting rates than do the corresponding thresholds for parasite elimination.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The variable dynamic nature of thresholds and parasite system resilience reflecting both initial conditions and vector species-infection specificities, and the existence of hysteresis loop phenomenon, suggests that eradication of filariasis may require taking a more flexible and locally relevant approach to designing elimination programmes compared to the current command and control approach advocated by the global programme.

Nature limits filarial transmission

Lymphatic filariasis, caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, Brugia malayi and B. timori is a public health problem of considerable magnitude of the tropics and subtropics. Presently 1.3 billion people are at risk of lymphatic filariasis (LF) infection and about 120 million people are affected in 83 countries. In this context it is worth mentioning that 'nature' itself limits filarial transmission to a great extent in a number of ways such as by reducing vector populations, parasitic load and many other bearings. Possibilities to utilize these bearings of natural control of filariasis should be searched and if manipulations on nature, like indiscriminate urbanization and deforestation, creating sites favourable for the breeding of filarial vectors and unsanitary conditions, water pollution with organic matters etc., are reduced below the threshold level, we will be highly benefited. Understandings of the factors related to natural phenomena of control of filariasis narrated in this article may help to adopt effective control strategies.

An analysis of genetic diversity and inbreeding in Wuchereria bancrofti: implications for the spread and detection of drug resistance

Estimates of genetic diversity in helminth infections of humans often have to rely on genotyping (immature) parasite transmission stages instead of adult worms. Here we analyse the results of one such study investigating a single polymorphic locus (a change at position 200 of the beta-tubulin gene) in microfilariae of the lymphatic filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti. The presence of this genetic change has been implicated in benzimidazole resistance in parasitic nematodes of farmed ruminants. Microfilariae were obtained from patients of three West African villages, two of which were sampled prior to the introduction of mass drug administration. An individual-based stochastic model was developed showing that a wide range of allele frequencies in the adult worm populations could have generated the observed microfilarial genetic diversity. This suggests that appropriate theoretical null models are required in order to interpret studies that genotype transmission stages. Wright's hierarchical F-statistic was used to investigate the population structure in W. bancrofti microfilariae and showed significant deficiency of heterozygotes compared to the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium; this may be partially caused by a high degree of parasite genetic differentiation between hosts. Studies seeking to quantify accurately the genetic diversity of helminth populations by analysing transmission stages should increase their sample size to account for the variability in allele frequency between different parasite life-stages. Helminth genetic differentiation between hosts and non-random mating will also increase the number of hosts (and the number of samples per host) that need to be genotyped, and could enhance the rate of spread of anthelmintic resistance.

Transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis: vector-specific density dependence in the development of Wuchereria bancrofti infective larvae in mosquitoes

The principles of meta-analysis developed in a previous study were extended to investigate the process of Wuchereria bancrofti (Cobbold) (Filarioidea: Onchocercidae) infection in mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) hosts, focusing specifically on the functional forms and strength of density dependence in the development of ingested microfilariae (mf) to infective (third instar) larvae (L3). Mathematical models describing observed mf-L3 functional responses for each of the major three parasite-transmitting vector genera, Aedes, Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, were fitted to paired mf-L3 data collated from all available studies in the published literature. Model parameters were estimated and compared by deriving and applying a data synthetic framework, based on applying a non-linear weighted regression model for fitting mathematical models to multistudy data. The results confirm previous findings of the existence of significant between-genera differences in the mf-L3 development relationship, particularly with regard to the occurrence of limitation in Culex mosquitoes and facilitation in Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes. New and unexpected findings regarding L3 development from ingested mf were discovered as follows: (1) for Culex, overcompensation in L3 development at higher intensities of mf (or a peaked mf-L3 functional response) was detected; (2) for Aedes mosquitoes, facilitation (with an apparent asymptotic constraint on L3 development at high mf densities) was shown to be the major process governing L3 development, and (3) for Anopheles, a stronger facilitation type of response with no apparent saturation in L3 development appears to govern L3 output from ingested mf. These results yield major new insights regarding filarial vector infection dynamics and their potential impacts on parasite control, and demonstrate the efficacy of employing a data synthetic approach to reveal and estimate parasitic infection processes in host populations.

Mathematical models and lymphatic filariasis control: endpoints and optimal interventions

The current global initiative to eliminate lymphatic filariasis is a major renewed commitment to reduce or eliminate the burden of one of the major helminth infections from resource-poor communities of the world. Mathematical models of filariasis transmission can serve as an effective tool for guiding the scientific development and management of successful community-level intervention programmes by acting as analytical frameworks for integrating knowledge regarding parasite transmission dynamics with programmatic factors. However, the power of these tools for supporting control interventions will be realized fully only if researchers address the current uncertainties and gaps in data and knowledge of filarial population dynamics and the effectiveness of currently proposed filariasis intervention options.

Advances and challenges in predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes by mathematical modelling

Mathematical simulation models for transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis are useful tools for studying the prospects of lymphatic filariasis elimination. Two simulation models are currently being used. The first, EPIFIL, is a population-based, deterministic model that simulates average trends in infection intensity over time. The second, LYMFASIM, is an individual-based, stochastic model that simulates acquisition and loss of infection for each individual in the simulated population, taking account of individual characteristics. For settings like Pondicherry (India), where Wuchereria bancrofti infection is transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus, the models give similar predictions of the coverage and number of treatment rounds required to bring microfilaraemia prevalence below a level of 0.5%. Nevertheless, published estimates of the duration of mass treatment required for elimination differed, due to the use of different indicators for elimination (EPIFIL: microfilaraemia prevalence < 0.5% after the last treatment; LYMFASIM: reduction of microfilaraemia prevalence to zero, within 40 years after the start of mass treatment). The two main challenges for future modelling work are: 1) quantification and validation of the models for other regions, for investigation of elimination prospects in situations with other vector-parasite combinations and endemicity levels than in Pondicherry; 2) application of the models to address a range of programmatic issues related to the monitoring and evaluation of ongoing control programmes. The models' usefulness could be enhanced by several extensions; inclusion of different diagnostic tests and natural history of disease in the models is of particular relevance.

Mathematical modelling and the control of lymphatic filariasis

The current global initiative to eliminate lymphatic filariasis represents one of the largest mass drug administration programmes ever conceived for the control of a parasitic disease. Yet, it is still not known whether the WHO-recommended primary strategy of applying annual single-dose mass chemotherapy with a combination of two drugs for 4-6 years will effectively break parasite transmission from all endemic communities. Here we review recent work on the development and application of a deterministic mathematical model of filariasis transmission, to show how models of parasite transmission will help resolve the key currently debated questions regarding the ultimate effectiveness of the global strategy to control filariasis. These critical questions include the required duration of mass treatment in different endemic areas, the optimal drug coverage required to meet control targets within prescribed timeframes, the impact and importance of adding vector control to mass chemotherapy regimens, and the likelihood of the development of drug resistance by treated worm populations. The results demonstrate the vital role that integrating these models into control programming can have in providing effective decision-support frameworks for undertaking the optimal design and monitoring of regional and global filariasis-control programmes. Operationally, the models show that the effectiveness of the strategy to achieve filariasis control will be determined by successfully addressing two key factors: the need to maintain high community treatment coverages, and the need to include vector control measures especially in areas of high endemicity.

Assessing density dependence in the transmission of lymphatic filariasis: uptake and development of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae in the vector mosquitoes

Understanding density dependence in the transmission of lymphatic filariasis is essential for assessing the prospects of elimination. This study seeks to quantify the relationship between microfilaria (Mf) density in human blood and the number of third stage (L3) larvae developing in the mosquito vectors Aedes polynesiensis Marks and Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) after blood-feeding. Two types of curves are fitted to previously published data. Fitting a linearized power curve through the data allows for correction for measurement error in human Mf counts. Ignoring measurement error leads to overestimation of the strength of density dependence; the degree of overestimation depends on the accuracy of measurement of Mf density. For use in mathematical models of transmission of lymphatic filariasis, a hyperbolic saturating function is preferable. This curve explicitly estimates the Mf uptake and development at lowest Mf densities and the average maximum number of L3 that can develop in mosquitoes. This maximum was estimated at 23 and 4 for Ae. polynesiensis and Cx. quinquefasciatus, respectively.