Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment of Vehicular Emissions as an Urban Health Indicator in Dhaka City

Emissions modelling is an important tool for assessing the urban health status of any city, but often the assessments are affected by the uncertainty of the data used for the modelling. Therefore, a Monte Carlo simulation technique was used for a probabilistic emissions modelling of Dhaka City by simulating 20,000 scenarios for the highest and lowest values of traffic volume and speed profiles for each of the major road links. Only nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from on-road vehicles were considered, as vehicular sources are major contributors. Each dataset included two peak periods and an offpeak period of the day to cover the diurnal variation within each road link. Using the probability of the magnitude of emissions along with the corresponding health risk, a series of spatial urban health risk severity scenarios was generated for 2018 and 2024, suggesting that transportation and environmental planning is required for urban sustainability.

Incitement, genocide, genocidal terror, and the upstream role of indoctrination: can epidemiologic models predict and prevent?

We apply the models and tools of epidemiology and public health to propose a unified field theory showing the role of ideologies, indoctrination, and incitement, in genocide, genocidal terror, and terror by groups or individuals. We examine the effects of indoctrination and incitement as exposures and risks in relation to genocide and genocidal terror. Incitement has been recognized as a trigger to these outcomes but indoctrination is upstream to incitement. Population-wide exposure to indoctrination increases susceptibility to the effects of incitement. These relationships have been seen in all major genocides and genocidal terror in the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. There is some insight into the relationship between ideology, incitement, and genocidal acts of violence from the so-called localized genocides in Bosnia, Rwanda, Darfur, Syria, and most recently, among the Rohingya in Myanmar. There is a need to recognize the upstream role of ideologies of hate in order to determine the degree to which indoctrination posed, and continues to pose, a contributing factor. Epidemiologic models, such as the iceberg model of exposure and disease and the concept of "sick individuals" and "sick populations," guide our understanding of the content and spread of indoctrination and incitement and can provide essential insights for prevention. The hateful indoctrination and ideologies behind genocidal violence must be countered and replaced by positive ideologies and role models that emphasize respect for life and human dignity for all.