Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco

Quantitative modelling for dengue and Aedes mosquitoes in Africa: A systematic review of current approaches and future directions for Early Warning System development

The rapid spread and growing number of dengue cases worldwide, alongside the absence of comprehensive vaccines and medications, highlights the critical need for robust tools to monitor, prevent, and control the disease. This review aims to provide an updated overview of important covariates and quantitative modelling techniques used to predict or forecast dengue and/or its vector Aedes mosquitoes in Africa. A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, EBSCOhost, and Scopus, restricted to studies conducted in Africa and published in English. Data management and extraction process followed the 'Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses' (PRISMA) framework. The review identified 30 studies, with the majority (two-thirds) focused on models for predicting Aedes mosquito populations dynamics as a proxy for dengue risk. The remainder of the studies utilized human dengue cases, incidence or prevalence data as an outcome. Input data for mosquito and dengue risk models were mainly obtained from entomological studies and cross-sectional surveys, respectively. More than half of the studies (56.7%) incorporated climatic factors, such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature, alongside environmental, demographic, socio-economic, and larval/pupal abundance factors as covariates in their models. Regarding quantitative modelling techniques, traditional statistical regression methods like logistic and linear regression were preferred (60.0%), followed by machine learning models (16.7%) and mixed effects models (13.3%). Notably, only 36.7% of the models disclosed variable selection techniques, and a mere 20.0% conducted model validation, highlighting a significant gap in reporting methodology and assessing model performance. Overall, this review provides a comprehensive overview of potential covariates and methodological approaches currently applied in the African context for modelling dengue and/or its vector, Aedes mosquito. It also underscores the gaps and challenges posed by limited surveillance data availability, which hinder the development of predictive models to be used as early warning systems in Africa.

Ecological Niche Modeling of Aedes and Culex Mosquitoes: A Risk Map for Chikungunya and West Nile Viruses in Zambia

The circulation of both West Nile Virus (WNV) and Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in humans and animals, coupled with a favorable tropical climate for mosquito proliferation in Zambia, call for the need for a better understanding of the ecological and epidemiological factors that govern their transmission dynamics in this region. This study aimed to examine the contribution of climatic variables to the distribution of Culex and Aedes mosquito species, which are potential vectors of CHIKV, WNV, and other arboviruses of public-health concern. Mosquitoes collected from Lusaka as well as from the Central and Southern provinces of Zambia were sorted by species within the Culex and Aedes genera, both of which have the potential to transmit viruses. The MaxEnt software was utilized to predict areas at risk of WNV and CHIKV based on the occurrence data on mosquitoes and environmental covariates. The model predictions show three distinct spatial hotspots, ranging from the high-probability regions to the medium- and low-probability regions. Regions along Lake Kariba, the Kafue River, and the Luangwa Rivers, as well as along the Mumbwa, Chibombo, Kapiri Mposhi, and Mpika districts were predicted to be suitable habitats for both species. The rainfall and temperature extremes were the most contributing variables in the predictive models.

A Review on Climate, Air Pollution, and Health in North Africa

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this review is to summarize and provide clear insights into studies that evaluate the interaction between air pollution, climate, and health in North Africa.

RECENT FINDINGS

Few studies have estimated the effects of climate and air pollution on health in North Africa. Most of the studies highlighted the evidence of the link between climate and air pollution as driving factors and increased mortality and morbidity as health outcomes. Each North African country prioritized research on a specific health factor. It was observed that the health outcome from each driving factor depends on the studied area and data availability. The latter is a major challenge in the region. As such, more studies should be led in the future to cover more areas in North Africa and when more data are available. Data availability will help to explore the applicability of different tools and techniques new to the region. This review explores studies related to climate and air pollution, and their possible impacts on health in North Africa. On one hand, air quality studies have focused mainly on particulate matter exceedance levels and their long-term exposure impacts, namely, morbidity and mortality. The observed differences between the various studies are mainly due to the used exposure-response function, the studied population, background emissions, and natural emission from the Sahara Desert that characterize the region. On the other hand, climate studies have focused primarily on the impact of heat waves, vector-borne disease, and mental disorders. More than half of these studies have been on leishmaniasis disease. The review revealed unbalanced and insufficient research on health impacts from air pollution episodes and climate extremes across the region.

Identifying Potential Planting Sites for Three Non-Native Plants to Be Used for Soil Rehabilitation in the Tula Watershed

The Tula watershed in Mexico, located in a semiarid and sub-humid climate zone, is experiencing intensive population growth, the expansion of mining concessions for construction materials, and agricultural and urban development, resulting in the degradation of soils and vegetation and a greater demand on natural resources. The aims of this study were to evaluate the survival rates and identify potential habitats within the Tula watershed for planting three non-native forage species (Atriplex canescens, Cynodon dactylon, and Leucaena collinsii) using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the MaxEnt model with the purpose of rehabilitating degraded soils via agroforestry systems. There were 19 edaphoclimatic variables used and the occurrences of three species, obtained from the GBIF, MEXU, and SNIB databases. The models generated with MaxEnt were very accurate (area under the curve [AUC] ≥ 0.7). The species Atriplex canescens and Cynodon dactylon showed areas of potential planting sites (>0.4) and high survival rates (80% and 92%, respectively). The species Leucaena collinsii presented areas with lower potential planting (<0.4) but registered the greater survival rate (100%). The results provide a solid basis to evaluate the survival rates of forage species within potential planting sites in the Tula watershed using agroforestry systems to rehabilitate degraded soils.

West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach

West Nile virus (WNV), a well-known emerging vector-borne arbovirus with a zoonotic life cycle, represents a threat to both public and animal health. Transmitted by ornithophilic mosquitoes, its transmission is difficult to predict and even more difficult to prevent. The massive and unprecedented number of human cases and equid outbreaks in Spain during 2020 interpellates for new approaches. For the first time, we present an integrate analysis from a niche perspective to provide an insight to the situation of West Nile disease (WND) in Spain. Our modelling approach benefits from the combined use of global occurrence records of outbreaks of WND in equids and of its two alleged main vectors in Spain, Culex pipiens and Cx. perexiguus. Maps of the climatic suitability for the presence of the two vectors species and for the circulation of WNV are provided. The main outcome of our study is a map delineating the areas under certain climatic risk of transmission. Our analyses indicate that the climatic risk of transmission of WND is medium in areas nearby the south Atlantic coastal area of the Cadiz Gulf and the Mediterranean coast, and high in southwestern Spain. The higher risk of transmission in the basins of the rivers Guadiana and Guadalquivir cannot be attributed exclusively to the local abundance of Cx. pipiens, but could be ascribed to the presence and abundance of Cx. perexiguus. Furthermore, this integrated analysis suggests that the WNV presents an ecological niche of its own, not fully overlapping the ones of its hosts or vector, and thus requiring particular environmental conditions to succeed in its infection cycle.