Kidney Failure and Liver Allocation: Current Practices and Potential Improvements

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their per formance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English stu dies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capa bilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Modelling kidney outcomes based on MELD eras - impact of MELD score in renal endpoints after liver transplantation

Background

Acute kidney injury is a common complication in solid organ transplants, notably liver transplantation. The MELD is a score validated to predict mortality of cirrhotic patients, which is also used for organ allocation, however the influence of this allocation criteria on AKI incidence and mortality after liver transplantation is still uncertain.

Methods

This is a retrospective single center study of a cohort of patients submitted to liver transplant in a tertiary Brazilian hospital: Jan/2002 to Dec/2013, divided in two groups, before and after MELD implementation (pre-MELD and post MELD). We evaluate the differences in AKI based on KDIGO stages and mortality rates between the two groups.

Results

Eight hundred seventy-four patients were included, 408 in pre-MELD and 466 in the post MELD era. The proportion of patients that developed AKI was lower in the post MELD era (p 0.04), although renal replacement therapy requirement was more frequent in this group (p < 0.01). Overall mortality rate at 28, 90 and 365 days was respectively 7%, 11% and 15%. The 1-year mortality rate was lower in the post MELD era (20% vs. 11%, p < 0.01). AKI incidence was 50% lower in the post MELD era even when adjusted for clinically relevant covariates (p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Liver transplants performed in the post MELD era had a lower incidence of AKI, although there were more cases requiring dialysis. 1-year mortality was lower in the post MELD era, suggesting that patient care was improved during this period.

Improvement of renal function prior to liver transplantation is not associated with better long-term renal outcome or survival

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Since MELD implementation renal impairment in liver transplant (LT) recipients has become of increasing importance. This is the first study evaluating the course of renal function immediately prior to LT as predictor for long-term renal and overall outcome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, 226 adults undergoing LT at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (2011-2015) were included. The impact of renal function over a period of 3 months prior to LT compared to renal function at the day of LT on long-term renal outcome and survival was assessed.

RESULTS

According to GFR at day of LT renal function improved (≥1 CKD stage) in 64 patients (28%), remained stable in 144 (64%) or deteriorated in 18 (8%). Improvement of renal function prior to LT did neither significantly affect 90-day (13% vs. 14%, p = 0.83), nor 5-year post-LT mortality (35% vs. 41%, p = 0.57). 50 patients (22%) with hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) received terlipressin prior to LT, but only 18 (37%) showed prolonged stabilization of renal function (improvement ≥1 CKD stage). Response to terlipressin did neither improve 90-day (p=1), 5-year mortality (p = 0.52) nor long-term renal function (p = 0.843). Nevertheless, need for dialysis pre-LT (59% vs. 34%, p = 0.005) and post-LT (62% vs. 17%, p<0.001) was associated with increased 5-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement of renal function immediately prior to LT, either spontaneously or following terlipressin therapy, did neither ameliorate long-term renal outcome nor survival in LT recipients. Future studies need to clarify the impact of terlipressin in HRS on the transplant waiting time in LT candidates.

Refitting the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease for the Eurotransplant Region

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The United Network for Organ Sharing's Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (UNOS-MELD) score is the basis of liver allocation in the Eurotransplant region. It was constructed 20 years ago in a small US cohort and has remained unchanged ever since. The best boundaries and coefficients were never calculated for any region outside the United States. Therefore, this study refits the MELD (reMELD) for the Eurotransplant region.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

All adult patients listed for a first liver transplantation between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, were included. Data were randomly split in a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). In the training data, generalized additive models with splines were plotted for each MELD parameter. The lower and upper bound combinations with the maximum log-likelihood were chosen for the final models. The refit models were tested in the validation data with C-indices and Brier scores. Through likelihood ratio tests the refit models were compared to UNOS-MELD. The correlation between scores and survival of prioritized patients was calculated. A total of 6,684 patients were included. Based on training data, refit parameters were capped at creatinine 0.7-2.5, bilirubin 0.3-27, international normalized ratio 0.1-2.6, and sodium 120-139. ReMELD and reMELD-Na showed C-indices of 0.866 and 0.869, respectively. ReMELD-Na prioritized patients with 1.6 times higher 90-day mortality probabilities compared to UNOS-MELD.

CONCLUSIONS

Refitting MELD resulted in new lower and upper bounds for each parameter. The predictive power of reMELD-Na was significantly higher than UNOS-MELD. ReMELD prioritized patients with higher 90-day mortality rates. Thus, reMELD(-Na) should replace UNOS-MELD for liver graft allocation in the Eurotransplant region.

Hepatobiliary Cancers, Version 2.2021, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology

The NCCN Guidelines for Hepatobiliary Cancers focus on the screening, diagnosis, staging, treatment, and management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder cancer, and cancer of the bile ducts (intrahepatic and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma). Due to the multiple modalities that can be used to treat the disease and the complications that can arise from comorbid liver dysfunction, a multidisciplinary evaluation is essential for determining an optimal treatment strategy. A multidisciplinary team should include hepatologists, diagnostic radiologists, interventional radiologists, surgeons, medical oncologists, and pathologists with hepatobiliary cancer expertise. In addition to surgery, transplant, and intra-arterial therapies, there have been great advances in the systemic treatment of HCC. Until recently, sorafenib was the only systemic therapy option for patients with advanced HCC. In 2020, the combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab became the first regimen to show superior survival to sorafenib, gaining it FDA approval as a new frontline standard regimen for unresectable or metastatic HCC. This article discusses the NCCN Guidelines recommendations for HCC.

Current Challenges in the Post-Transplant Care of Liver Transplant Recipients in Germany

Improving long-term patient and graft survival after liver transplantation (LT) remains a major challenge. Compared to the early phase after LT, long-term morbidity and mortality of the recipients not only depends on complications immediately related to the graft function, infections, or rejection, but also on medical factors such as de novo malignancies, metabolic disorders (e.g., new-onset diabetes, osteoporosis), psychiatric conditions (e.g., anxiety, depression), renal failure, and cardiovascular diseases. While a comprehensive post-transplant care at the LT center and the connected regional networks may improve outcome, there is currently no generally accepted standard to the post-transplant management of LT recipients in Germany. We therefore described the structure and standards of post-LT care by conducting a survey at 12 German LT centers including transplant hepatologists and surgeons. Aftercare structures and form of cost reimbursement considerably varied between LT centers across Germany. Further discussions and studies are required to define optimal structure and content of post-LT care systems, aiming at improving the long-term outcomes of LT recipients.

4-methylpyrazole protects against acetaminophen-induced acute kidney injury

Acetaminophen (APAP) hepatotoxicity is the most common cause of acute liver failure in the United States, and while a significant percentage of APAP overdose patients develop kidney injury, molecular mechanisms involved in APAP-induced nephrotoxicity are relatively unknown. We have shown that 4-methylpyrazole (4MP, Fomepizole) protects against APAP-induced liver injury by inhibiting reactive metabolite formation through Cyp2E1, and analysis of data from APAP overdose patients indicated that kidney dysfunction strongly correlated with severe liver injury. Since Cyp2E1 is also expressed in the kidney, this study explored protection by 4MP against APAP-induced nephrotoxicity. Male C57BL/6 J mice were treated with either 300 or 600 mg/kg APAP with or without 4MP for 2, 6 or 24 h, followed by measurement of APAP metabolism and tissue injury. Interestingly, levels of APAP and its non-oxidative metabolites were significantly higher in kidneys when compared to the liver. APAP-protein adducts were present in both tissues within 2 h, but were absent in kidney mitochondria, unlike in the liver. While GSH depletion was seen in both tissues, activation of c-jun N-terminal kinase and its translocation to the mitochondria, which is a critical feature of APAP-induced liver injury, was not detected in the kidney. Treatment with 4MP attenuated APAP oxidative metabolite generation, GSH depletion as well as kidney injury indicating its potential use in protection against APAP-induced nephrotoxicity. In conclusion, since reactive metabolite formation seems to be common in both liver and kidney, 4MP mediated inhibition of Cyp2E1 protects against APAP-induced nephrotoxicity. However, downstream mechanisms of APAP-induced nephrotoxicity seem distinct from the liver.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Access and Outcomes of Simultaneous Liver-Kidney Transplant Among Liver Transplant Candidates With Renal Dysfunction in the United States

BACKGROUND

Since the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation system was implemented, the proportion of simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation (SLKT) has increased significantly. However, whether racial/ethnic disparities exist in access to SLKT and post-SLKT survival remains understudied.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of patients aged ≥18 years with renal dysfunction on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list was obtained from Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Renal dysfunction was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m at listing for LT. Multilevel time-to-competing-events regression adjusting for center effect was used to examine the likelihood of receiving SLKT. Inverse probability of treatment weighted survival analyses were used to analyze posttransplant mortality outcomes.

RESULTS

For patients with renal dysfunction at listing for LT, not listed for simultaneous kidney transplant, non-Hispanic black (NHB) and Hispanic patients were more likely to receive SLKT than non-Hispanic white (NHW) patients (NHB: multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42-4.65; Hispanic: aHR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.14-3.60). For post-SLKT outcomes, compared to NHW patients, NHB patients had a lower mortality risk before 24 months (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.97) but had a higher mortality risk (aHR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.59-2.55) afterward; in contrast, Hispanic patients had a lower overall mortality risk than NHW patients (aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

In the MELD era, racial/ethnic differences exist in access and survival of SLKT for patients with renal dysfunction at listing for LT. Future studies are warranted to examine whether these differences remain in the post-SLK allocation policy era.

Early detection of acute kidney injury in the perioperative period of liver transplant with neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in patients undergoing liver transplant (LT) and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. We aim to evaluate the pattern of urine and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) elevation during the perioperative period of LT and to assess it as a prognostic marker for AKI progression, need for dialysis and mortality.

Methods

We assessed NGAL levels before induction of anesthesia, after portal reperfusion and at 6, 18, 24, and 48 h after surgery. Patients were monitored daily during the first week after LT.

Results

Of 100 enrolled patients undergoing liver transplant, 59 developed severe AKI based on the KDIGO serum creatinine (sCr) criterion; 34 were dialysed, and 21 died within 60 days after LT. Applying a cut-off value of 136 ng/ml, UNGAL values 6 h after surgery was a good predictor of AKI development within 7 days after surgery, having a positive predictive value (PPV) of 80% with an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.67–0.86). PNGAL at 18 h after LT was also a good predictor of AKI in the first week, having a PPV of 81% and AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.60–0.88). Based on PNGAL and UNGAL cut-off criteria levels, time to AKI diagnosis was 28 and 23 h earlier than by sCr, respectively. The best times to assess the need for dialysis were 18 h after LT by PNGAL and 06 h after LT by UNGAL.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the plasma and urine NGAL elevation pattern in the perioperative period of the liver transplant can predict AKI diagnosis earlier. UNGAL was an early independent predictor of AKI development and need for dialysis. Further studies are needed to assess whether the clinical use of biomarkers can improve patient outcomes.

Trial registration

Registered at Clinical Trials (clinicaltrials.gov) in March 24th, 2014 by title “Acute Kidney Injury Biomarkers: Diagnosis and Application in Pre-operative Period of Liver Transplantation (AKIB)” and identifier NCT02095431, retrospectively registered.

Renal Dysfunction after Living-Donor Liver Transplantation: Experience with 500 Cases

Introduction. The possible risk factors for chronic kidney disease in transplant recipients have not been thoroughly investigated after living-donor liver transplantation. Material and Methods. A retrospective cohort study of consecutive adults who underwent living-donor liver transplantation between May 2004 and October 2016, in a single center, was conducted. Kidney function was investigated successively for all the patients throughout the study period, with 12 months being the shortest follow-up. Postoperative renal dysfunction was defined in accordance with the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration criteria. The patients' demographic data, preoperative and intraoperative parameters, and outcomes were recorded. A calcineurin inhibitor-based immunosuppressive regimen, either tacrolimus or cyclosporine, was used in all the patients. Results. Of the 413 patients included in the study, 33 (8%) who survived for ≥1 year experienced chronic kidney disease 1 year after living-donor liver transplantation. Twenty-seven variables were studied to compare between the patients with normal kidney functions and those who developed chronic kidney disease 1 year after living-donor liver transplantation. Univariate regression analysis for predicting the likelihood of chronic kidney disease at 1 year revealed that the following 4 variables were significant: operative time, P < 0.0005; intraoperative blood loss, P < 0.0005; preoperative renal impairment, P = 0.001; and graft-to-recipient weight ratio (as a negative predictor), P < 0.0005. In the multivariate regression analysis, only 2 variables remained as independent predictors of chronic kidney disease at 1 year, namely, operative time with a cutoff value of ≥714 minutes and graft-to-recipient weight ratio as a negative predictor with a cutoff value of <0.91. Conclusion. In this study, prolonged operative time and small graft-to-recipient weight ratio were independent predictors of chronic kidney disease at 1 year after living-donor liver transplantation.

Effect of transplant center volume on post-transplant survival in patients listed for simultaneous liver and kidney transplantation

AIM

To examine the effect of center size on survival differences between simultaneous liver kidney transplantation (SLKT) and liver transplantation alone (LTA) in SLKT-listed patients.

METHODS

The United Network of Organ Sharing database was queried for patients ≥ 18 years of age listed for SLKT between February 2002 and December 2015. Post-transplant survival was evaluated using stratified Cox regression with interaction between transplant type (LTA vs SLKT) and center volume.

RESULTS

During the study period, 393 of 4580 patients (9%) listed for SLKT underwent a LTA. Overall mortality was higher among LTA recipients (180/393, 46%) than SLKT recipients (1107/4187, 26%). The Cox model predicted a significant survival disadvantage for patients receiving LTA vs SLKT [hazard ratio, hazard ratio (HR) = 2.85; 95%CI: 2.21, 3.66; P < 0.001] in centers performing 30 SLKT over the study period. This disadvantage was modestly attenuated as center SLKT volume increased, with a 3% reduction (HR = 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.99; P = 0.010) for every 10 SLKs performed.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, LTA is associated with increased mortality among patients listed for SLKT. This difference is modestly attenuated at more experienced centers and may explain inconsistencies between smaller-center and larger registry-wide studies comparing SLKT and LTA outcomes.

Outcomes of liver transplantation in patients with hepatorenal syndrome

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) plays an important role in patients with liver cirrhosis on the wait list for liver transplantation (LT). The 1 and 5-year probability of developing HRS in cirrhotic with ascites is 20% and 40%, respectively. In this article, we reviewed current concepts in HRS pathophysiology, guidelines for HRS diagnosis, effective treatment options presently available, and controversies surrounding liver alone vs simultaneous liver kidney transplant (SLKT) in transplant candidates. Many treatment options including albumin, vasoconstrictors, renal replacement therapy, and eventual LT have remained a mainstay in the treatment of HRS. Unfortunately, even after aggressive measures such as terlipressin use, the rate of recovery is less than 50% of patients. Moreover, current SLKT guidelines include: (1) estimation of glomerular filtration rate of 30 mL/min or less for 4-8 wk; (2) proteinuria > 2 g/d; or (3) biopsy proven interstitial fibrosis or glomerulosclerosis. Even with these updated criteria there is a lack of consistency regarding long-term benefits for SLKT vs LT alone. Finally, in regards to kidney dysfunction in the post-transplant setting, an estimation of glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m² may be associated with an increased risk of patients having long-term end stage renal disease. HRS is common in patients with cirrhosis and those on liver transplant waitlist. Prompt identification and therapy initiation in transplant candidates with HRS may improve post-transplantation outcomes. Future studies identifying optimal vasoconstrictor regimens, alternative therapies, and factors predictive of response to therapy are needed. The appropriate use of SLKT in patients with HRS remains controversial and requires further evidence by the transplant community.