Utility of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Estimated GFR for Estimating Time to Kidney Failure in Advanced CKD

Predictive models in chronic kidney disease: essential tools in clinical practice

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The integration of risk prediction in managing chronic kidney disease (CKD) is universally considered a key point of routine clinical practice to guide time-sensitive choices, such as dialysis access planning or counseling on kidney transplant options. Several prognostic models have been developed and validated to provide individualized evaluation of kidney failure risk in CKD patients. This review aims to analyze the current evidence on existing predictive models and evaluate the different advantages and disadvantages of these tools.

RECENT FINDINGS

Since Tangri et al. introduced the Kidney Failure Risk Equation in 2011, the nephrological scientific community focused its interest in enhancing available algorithms and finding new prognostic equations. Although current models can predict kidney failure with high discrimination, different questions remain unsolved. Thus, this field is open to new possibilities and discoveries.

SUMMARY

Accurately informing patients of their prognoses can result in tailored therapy with important clinical and psychological implications. Over the last 5 years, the number of disease-modifying therapeutic options has considerably increased, providing possibilities to not only prevent the kidney failure onset in patients with advanced CKD but also delay progression from early stages in at-risk individuals.

Predialysis Vascular Access Placement and Catheter Use at Hemodialysis Initiation

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines encourage placement of an arteriovenous (AV) fistula in patients with advanced CKD to avoid initiation of hemodialysis with a central venous catheter. However, the relative merits of predialysis placement of an AV fistula or graft have been poorly studied.

METHODS

This study included 380 patients (mean age 59±14 years, 73% Black patients, 51% male) from a large academic medical center who underwent predialysis placement of an AV fistula (286) or AV graft (94). The study quantified three end points: time from access placement to initiation of dialysis, likelihood of starting hemodialysis without a catheter, and number of vascular access procedures before dialysis initiation.

RESULTS

The eGFR at access surgery was <10, 10-14, and ≥15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 in 87 (23%), 179 (47%), and 114 (30%) patients, respectively. The median time from access surgery to hemodialysis initiation was 69, 156, and 429 days in patients with an eGFR of <10, 10-14, and ≥15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , respectively ( P < 0.001). Hemodialysis was initiated within 2 years of access surgery in 298 (78%) of the patients. Catheter-free hemodialysis initiation was higher in patients with an AV graft versus an AV fistula when the eGFR was <10 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (88% versus 43%; odds ratio [OR], 9.10 [95% confidence interval, 2.74 to 26.4]) and when the eGFR was 10-14 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (88% versus 54%; OR, 6.05 [2.35 to 15.0]) but similar when the eGFR was ≥15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (90% versus 75%; OR, 3.00 [0.48 to 34.9]). Patients undergoing an AV fistula were more likely to undergo an angioplasty (11% versus 0%, P < 0.001), surgical access revision (26% versus 8%, P < 0.001), a second access placement (16% versus 6%, P = 0.02), and a catheter insertion (32% versus 11%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with CKD undergoing vascular access surgery when their eGFR was <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , catheter use at dialysis initiation was much less likely when an AV graft, rather than an AV fistula, was placed.